WW 19 Game Thread - Mobster Mayhem - GAME OVER

[Bigger]

Ryan: it really seems like you want to vote novice still, but are instead switching your vote to whoever will make you seem popular with the cool kids.

I don't like. vote who you think is guilty, even if you get shit for that. If you are a villager, that's your duty.

He isnt getting lynched. :P Even if I tried. but Selrahc makes sense to me. Serdoas arguments make sense aswell. Or am I only supposed to make a vote on arguments I create and not ones I agree with ?

That's fine. It just seems like you are fishing for approval of your vote, after getting attacked for your novice vote.
also, take from a vet: you don't know for sure that anyone won't get lynched by deadline time. Especially on day 1. Crazy things happen during the last hour.

[Tasunke]

Sigh ... what I was saying is that there is only one reason a scum would say they had the fool card.

What would this reason be? if a different scum had the fool card. Therefore novice would have either no item or something else, would have been seered wolf, w/e, and could argue village. Meanwhile the wolf WITH the fool card could just play normally (or suspiciuosly) be seered, and be seen as village. If people think that wolf-novice has the card, then 2 seer proof wolves could be masquerading as village.

(this is why it would be dangerous)

But why would people think the card was destroyed?

Tasunke, please answer this.

Sigh. If you remember at the time of my original argument, we didn't know (or at least I didn't) if Items would be revealed or not upon death. At the time, I was basing that argument on items not being revealed upon death. Either way though, if novice is never lynched, it doesn't matter. The masquerade could happen either if novice is lynched + no item reveal, or if novice isn't lynched at all.

Of course, if item reveal, its only an alignment gambit, and therefore wolf novice would likely not put his neck out like that. Seems like just a bit too much risk for not quite enough reward.

In another game a suspicious novice went mayor, and that went fine for awhile (until I was lynched on a day where my running mate was a wolf ... thanks to tie-breaker novice and last minute waterbat ) -> and last minute other people, but Waterbat was the one random wtf voter that I didn't think was going to vote for me, and especially not at the last minute.

Anyways, Novice Mayor seemed to work in the past, even when he was somewhat suspicious, and he turned out to be village then. So I don't think this saga is worth a lynch (and if anything, its more of a town tell really). At least not today.

But honestly...

"5. If a player dies, any items he holds are lost. The items in a person's possession will be revealed upon the person's death."

Just read this now. (and, earlier, before switching from BIGGER to Rowain ... I never voted novice btw, or myself for mayor. wth do ppl think these things. I voted Bigger for lynch and Ryan for mayor. So anyways ... before switching to Rowain, I was already starting to assume these things. And I apologize for my absence, Im at in-laws, and I also had a big FFH game yesterday. (much to the chagrin of my inlaws I suppose)

So yea, due to item-rule 5, pretty sure Novice is at *least* a village lean

[novice]

Rowain, IMO Uberfish has summarized nicely (a long time ago) why my play is unlikely to be scum play:

If novice is scum, he's declared that he will pass the card on, so he's going to either have to 1) pass off the card to someone else who will claim it, forfeiting his anti-seer protection, or 2) give it to another scum (or lie about it) drawing a connection between the two of them while focusing attention on the second player.

Still you say I'm 50/50 for being a wolf, compared to null tell probabilities of 25% (presumably).

You've given no reasons why I'm scummy. You've asked me to hunt scum and I have done that (on top of addressing all the fool card meta). Ryan's quicktopic explanation ended up giving me a village lean on him, Tasunke still needs to answer my question regarding the slip Zakalwe pointed out.

I see you're now voting Selrahc, how likely is he to be scum?

As for you, I can only give you about 35% odds of being scum. I could vote Mero, Pindi, Azza or Tasunke too. Will reassess when I have time. Crossposting with Tas, will reply to that next.

[novice]

Sigh ... what I was saying is that there is only one reason a scum would say they had the fool card.

What would this reason be? if a different scum had the fool card. Therefore novice would have either no item or something else, would have been seered wolf, w/e, and could argue village. Meanwhile the wolf WITH the fool card could just play normally (or suspiciuosly) be seered, and be seen as village. If people think that wolf-novice has the card, then 2 seer proof wolves could be masquerading as village.

(this is why it would be dangerous)

But why would people think the card was destroyed?

Tasunke, please answer this.

Sigh. If you remember at the time of my original argument, we didn't know (or at least I didn't) if Items would be revealed or not upon death. At the time, I was basing that argument on items not being revealed upon death. Either way though, if novice is never lynched, it doesn't matter. The masquerade could happen either if novice is lynched + no item reveal, or if novice isn't lynched at all.

But Tasunke, if I'm scum claiming to have the card, and I'm lynched and flip "scum, items unknown" - Why would you believe that I had the card and that it was destroyed? Why wouldn't you think it was a lie?

[Tasunke]

Crossposting with Tas, will reply to that next.

oh okay. I was wondering why you were still saying I didn't answer Zak's question. If my last post doesn't answer then I just don't know what to say (at least for now). The plan is, that we will be leaving the inlaws today (which is several states away from our house), so if I do post between now and lynch it will probably be by i-phone.

I would like for my vote to count, but have no idea what the vote count is right now. That being said, I will try to change my vote via i-phone if necessary/possible/reasonable.

Still, currently moderately content to stay on Rowain.

[novice]

"5. If a player dies, any items he holds are lost. The items in a person's possession will be revealed upon the person's death."

Just read this now. (and, earlier, before switching from BIGGER to Rowain ... I never voted novice btw, or myself for mayor. wth do ppl think these things. I voted Bigger for lynch and Ryan for mayor. So anyways ... before switching to Rowain, I was already starting to assume these things. And I apologize for my absence, Im at in-laws, and I also had a big FFH game yesterday. (much to the chagrin of my inlaws I suppose)

So yea, due to item-rule 5, pretty sure Novice is at *least* a village lean

FWIW, I'm pretty sure that rule was edited in after I asked Brick for clarification on this. (I was always assuming that they would be revealed upon death, though.)

[Serdoa]

So yeah, there are several issues with that. Thats also why I don't like the attitude of Selrahc. I am certain he should be able to see those issues himself, so him acting like Rowains stance is totally not understandable for a villager is hard to believe.

Rowain is castigating something that I would have done if I had the fool card.
He is doing it based on rationale that I think is unsound, or at the least particularly convoluted.
He is doing it in a way that I think belies an ulterior motive that would fit with my understanding of how he plays wolf. To wit, he is pushing his theory *hard*.

But you did not simply state that in your last posts. Thats why I vote for you. Now you right that you "think" something is unsound. That you "believe" in something. But in your last posts, you didn't write that. You stated those things as facts. It was not "he bases it on a rational that I think is unsound" but instead it was "he bases it on an unsound rationale". And you show your skills with words, so you certainly know what effect that has.

Frankly, I don't care if you agree with his rationale Serdoa. I don't. What I see is a very twisty argument from him that has moved from one potential way that this might in some way be a good wolf ploy, to a different one, to an admission that he doesn't even care if he is lynching a villager.

When did he move his argument from one way to another. Which post? When did he post he does not care to lynch a villager? Again, what you write here is just not true. I don't care that you and I don't agree on some believes. But I care about that you time and again write stuff that is not true, just to make your argument and vote sound better and get others to follow you.

Novice did something that I agree with as the action that any villager with the fool card should have taken. Rowain is using that as his sole reason to get Novice lynched. That is beyond the pale, and I'm never going to agree with it.

But he isn't. He is just pointing out that yes, a villager should have done that, but that doesn't necessarily mean that a wolf would not and therefore this alone can't be the argument not to lynch novice as his reveal just tells us nothing about his alignment.

It's actively dangerous to the village to lynch based on his criteria.

Why? I would really like to know that. Why is it actively dangerous?

(And btw, you have again stated something as a fact without even delivering a reasoning behind, just hoping that your readers will accept it without thinking twice about it.)

[Azza]

on phone, but I like the movement. Disagree that the most important thing is to get rid of the card. Forget that, that is a distraction. We know where the card is or should be now. We don`t need to lynch novice we just have him pass the card. If in the morning that person has it we for sure where it is. This defeats the possible scum having the card without us knowing. I mean why destroy it when you can simply play musical chairs with it so we know where it is??? Why mislynch to destroy something that doesn`t even matter? You guys realize that as long as we know where the card is any scans will be 100percent correct?

Lets lynch away from this distraction. I support a selrahc or azza lynch atm. Can`t get color to work on my phone.

Still dont get how will you guys know it is being passed.

Really???
Novice says he is going to pass it to ryan. The next day ryan wakes up and has the card. Do you still doubt where the goddamn card is?

Or, scum novice says he's going to pass it to scum Ryan, and instead passes it to scum Lewwyn.
Or, novice says he's going to pass it to Ryan, and Ryan denies receiving the card. Is it because novice didn't give him the card? Is it because Ryan is lying to try and get novice lynched? Is it because someone stole the card before he could pass it off?

[Tasunke]

Sigh ... what I was saying is that there is only one reason a scum would say they had the fool card.

What would this reason be? if a different scum had the fool card. Therefore novice would have either no item or something else, would have been seered wolf, w/e, and could argue village. Meanwhile the wolf WITH the fool card could just play normally (or suspiciuosly) be seered, and be seen as village. If people think that wolf-novice has the card, then 2 seer proof wolves could be masquerading as village.

(this is why it would be dangerous)

But why would people think the card was destroyed?

Tasunke, please answer this.

Sigh. If you remember at the time of my original argument, we didn't know (or at least I didn't) if Items would be revealed or not upon death. At the time, I was basing that argument on items not being revealed upon death. Either way though, if novice is never lynched, it doesn't matter. The masquerade could happen either if novice is lynched + no item reveal, or if novice isn't lynched at all.

But Tasunke, if I'm scum claiming to have the card, and I'm lynched and flip "scum, items unknown" - Why would you believe that I had the card and that it was destroyed? Why wouldn't you think it was a lie?

God what the hell. Are you an idiot? Jesus damn. I said if you were scum, that YOU didn't have the card, but one of your buddies did. I dunno HELL, maybe you realize this possibility, and so are just acting like a dumbfuck for the hell of it.

WOLFWOLFWOLFWOLFWOLF

NOVICENOVICENOVICENOVICE

aight. With that out of my system, I'm still not confident in voting for Novice (on the lynch)

therefore I think I'll just change my mayor vote to MJW

[Tasunke]

ah, and vote back to Rowain