WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[pindicator]

I'm gonna do my catwalk impression and follow novice

Tasunke

[Gaspar]

Moreover, Gaspar seems to have completely forgotten about me as I'm not even his alternate vote (Ichabod) if Meiz doesn't go through.

I never intended to lynch you - wanted to see what would shake out. I actually do believe there comes a point where if you're still alive and haven't caught anyone you must be scum, but we haven't reached that yet. I was expecting a bit more momentum which would have betrayed some scum candidates in my mind, but it never happened. You should be an extraordinarily attractive lynch for scum.

Those who rose most vociferously to your defense against me however, that could be a safe scum place to be.

I'm okay with a Selrahc lynch for the same reason I was okay with a pindicator lynch - best case: scum hit, worst case: convenient patsy lynched. But I basically like these two cases best:

Meiz:

• Tells us about post restrictor potentially.
  
• Tests Ichabod as a lynch leader.
  
• Meiz has felt a bit off to me all game, which I noted on day 3.
  

Ichabod:

• Tests Lewwyn as a lynch leader.
  
• I've oscillated between strong scum and strong village reads, which would be consistent with wolfabod, who is as we know, a strong player.
  
• Maybe tells us something about Day 2.
  

[Azza]

novice, how about Azza? Quoting myself from earlier:
"I think his posts and votes have been very guarded all game. Villagers will tend to speak freely, scum will tend to speak very carefully."
Moreover, he has a habit of voting safely. I will post his voting record after I get back in a few hours, I think it reeks of lying low and not wanting to get involved with anything.

Not going to lie, my votes have, overall, been pretty shit. I'm not at all happy with them.

But I think you're overanalysing (or under, not sure) my post style. To me, it'd make more sense to compare my posts in this game to posts I've made elsewhere, rather than the typical WW game behaviour.

[waterbat]

interetsing gaspar - your argument is similar to my watching on Jkaen. seemed too convenient a mislynch, but no wolf bites.

[Azza]

Azza, what did you think from this? Do you think it's village or wolf tell on pindicator?

I'd be leaning towards pindicator was considered mislynchable by the mafia, and they don't want to attract too much suspicion by bringing his name up every day. But I wouldn't be putting money on it.

[waterbat]

specifically ..

I was expecting a bit more momentum which would have betrayed some scum candidates in my mind, but it never happened.

which was also one of my reasons for flipping to Injera for a short time as well.

But I guess when it comes down to it, I could place Azza, Molach, Selrahc in that category as well.

Meiz not so much - as his Post Restriction and actually contributions would make him slightly harder mislynch.

This is not to say that the mafia wouldnt just save all the easy targets for closer to the endgame. Perhaps that is what is going on now.

[Azza]

I'd be leaning towards pindicator was considered mislynchable by the mafia, and they don't want to attract too much suspicion by bringing his name up every day. But I wouldn't be putting money on it.

To clarify slightly, I think that pindicator keeps getting floated as a possible lynch target by the mafia, but tries to allow a village bandwagon to form rather than a bunch of mafia jumping on pindicator and hoping villagers follow.

[Injera]

I was expecting a bit more momentum which would have betrayed some scum candidates in my mind, but it never happened. You should be an extraordinarily attractive lynch for scum.

I don't fully buy your explanation, but if it's genuine:

I jumped up to a 5-2 lead in the vote. If you think all of those voters were villagers some wolves would surely jump on at that point, no? I think it likely there's some scum there. I don't disagree that a wolf might defend me, but I think the meta-case is strong enough that plenty of villagers would as well.

[Ichabod]

I don't think that Meiz played a game that warrants so much villager vibes from him.

His day 1 and 2 play were pretty lacking, he only voted for Tasunke (first post vote), Jkaen (which he sticked to during all day 1, despite all the happenings between thestick, Mattimeo and Bigger), Waterbat and Pindicator. Post 209 by meiz seem very similar to the one that thestick got caught, so it's worth taking a look. Questions, comments directed to players, not much substance (and that was his main post on day 1, I think).

When he got post restricted, he suddely became a lot more active. I think he made more posts on day 3, with that compeltely crippling PR, than he made in day 1 and 2. Maybe he had more time, maybe he found it interesting to try and pass his message with the PR, but see this:

I'm really puzzled why I was restricted, as I had been mostly busy. First thought was that I was onto something. But the world might not turn around me and my theories, wolves could just try to confuse village. Second thought, is the restrictor even a wolf? Has picked people who were not in real danger of being lynched. Novice is quite creative quoter and has done that before. Then again if he would be forced to use the restrictions, there could have been better pro-villager moves for it. It was actually quite a relief to not have much pressure to post. Time to catch up the thread and collect thoughts. Started to feel like certain people were using too much time on decrypting the messages anyways, so in the end decided to keep it simple. Restriction was: Can only post using words Lobster, Fork, Bananas + votes + symbols (fortunately numbers as well). Quite paralyzing, wasn't creative enough to put out clear messages.

I still feel that the sudden surge of contribution by meiz after the (extremely difficult to justify) PR is strange. Yeah, it fits with him being busy, but still. Why would a player who was silent for that long time suddenly start posting that much after a PR...

Anyway, after the PR, meiz started to sound more like the Meiz I'm used to as a villager. His characteristic posts returned. It fits with him finding more time, but it also feels to have something to do with some players already calling him about it. I still need to read the next days more carefully, but I remember Meiz just tagging along with Novice after day 3. This reaction is amplified by the Meta argument of the PRs being fishy and that the PR on Meiz was extremely unjustified.

There was no gain to be had in Post restricting Meiz. On the other hand, if a PR wolf was caught, we'd have a cleared Novice. I can't get the possibility of a wolf cute play of protecting the PR wolf by faking a PR on him off my mind. Why waste the PR on Meiz, risking him being cleared as a villager when the PR wolf goes down? Why not use that absurdly harsh PR on Novice?

All this is a pretty fair reason for a lynch, at least in my eyes.

[Injera]

Agreed. My alternates are Molach, Tasunke and Lewwyn.

What do you think about Gaspar? Or for that matter, the rest of the field?