RB PBEM #2 - Justinian (SPOILERS!)

[Dreylin]

t97 - I haven't posted any screenies for a while (I know it's been at least 10days ), so please let me know if there's anything in particular you'd like to see. I've been thinking about posting some shots of the individual cities, but may wait 3t before doing so....

The expected Optics - Paper trade greets me on arrival ... guess some Caravels are in order this turn!

28g from Yaz and he has no non-Capital cities, guess he's not got much longer in the game.

Oh, and here's a message:

Well my cap is gone, probably dead in two turns. Good luck and hope the gold helps.
Only other thing I can offer is some intel and that is that Darrell finishes Engineering next turn.
And Darrell has units on island that he traded to Krill earlier so maybe they made some other deal that got him it back.

The island mentioned is the tripple-Golder to the North of Darrell (the ? region on my previous map), and by the way Drat^4 for the news on Engineering's imminent arrival - guess we may need to reassess the situation.

Constantinople: Harbour - Market (probably should have been the previous build.) I re-jig the specialists: firing both Priests, hiring a second Scientist and leaving the other to work a forest for growth.

Oh that's the only completed build, so I guess Caravels wait for next turn!

Adrianople: whip Courthouse
Angora: whip Granary
Trebizond: whip Granary

Optics allows me to see that bit more than I could previously; a couple of tiles of Krill's territory is now visible at Land's End, and there's also a border visible East of Trebizond (my Southernmost city) so he does have some otherwise-unmapped islands down there.

Mani builds the Buddhist Shrine ... 12g (& 2h & 2b) added per turn.

I offer map trades to both SL and Ruff to catch up on some of their latest city placements.

[Dreylin]

and a swift note off to SL & Ruff:

OK, bad news to report.

1) I miscalculated the EPs needed for Krill to see our research; I forgot to take into account the overall EP spending modifier/discount. Krill is at 112% for me so he can see mine, and I'm betting that he can see yours as well SL.

2) Darrell is due to complete Engineering next turn. That probably means we'll not be able to beat them to Liberalism, but it also probably means that the D/K partnership can out-research the three of us anyway. 8-(

Dreylin.

[Sandover]

please let me know if there's anything in particular you'd like to see

Some overview shots of your civ would be nice.

[Dreylin]

I'll see about grabbing some screenshots; meanwhile here is some more diplo:

Right - so, what do you want to do? If we race them, we will probably lose and get nothing. If we jump on the offered tech trade with Darrell, then we just need to leverage Darrell away from any future tech trades with Krill to slow Krill down.

Ruff

OK, so what Darrell has offered is basically this, right:

Darrell: Liberalism & Steel
Us: Guilds & Astronomy

but in addition to those two techs, we also have to research Gunpowder & Chemistry before the trades can go through.

So the three of us have to research Astronomy, Guilds, Education, Gunpowder & Chemistry (5 techs) while Krill & Darrell research Gunpowder, Chemistry & Liberalism (3techs). I don't know about you guys, but I'm guessing that there will be >10t between Steel finishing and when we can get our hands on.

According to Darrell, the trade they have arranged is:

Darrelljs: So I have lined up a deal where Krill feeds me Education, Gunpowder and Chemistry for Liberalism, Steel, Optics, and Engineering.

so what happens to that deal if we force Darrell to bulb something other than Steel...? If we can nullify that trade, maybe we can convince Darrell not to trade with Krill at all. TBH, I don't think there's much of a chance for any of us to beat Krill while Darrell is supporting him, and I think that breaking them up post-Liberalism is too late.

If we lose a race, we'll at least have most of Liberalism - which is part of the trade Darrell has offered - and no-one will have Steel. I say that's a worthwhile result, but I'm prepared to be out-voted and support the other option if that's what both of you want.

Ruff, do you make enough gold to support both of us teching, or just one?

SL, would building Research in one or more of your cities make an appreciable difference to the ETA of Liberalism. I can help out with troops / Settlers if you're worried about expansion or military investment falling behind.

Cheers,

Dreylin.

I'm really starting to think that none of us has much of a chance to oppose Krill anymore, even if we do prize him and Darrell apart. He'll also have free rein to attack me, since there's no-on near his opposite border to force him to defend.

[Tatan]

I'm really starting to think that none of us has much of a chance to oppose Krill anymore, even if we do prize him and Darrell apart. He'll also have free rein to attack me, since there's no-on near his opposite border to force him to defend.

Don't give up hope!
If anything, it would be fun to see if you could pull off a better dogpile than COW.

[Dreylin]

t98 - brought to you in between preparing roasted pork loin & barley risotto for dinner....

Adrianople: Courthouse - Caravel
Antioch: Market - Barracks
Angora: Granary - Buddhist Temple
Trebizond: Granary - Caravel

Darrell does indeed have Engineering already, but Krill is still Optics-less.

No whipping, but now that Constantinople has grown I hire an Engineer to join the 2Scientists and bring GP#3 down to 14t.

Nothing much else going on, so I just end turn and send it on to Ruff. Sorry for the lack of pictures; I'll try and come back after dinner to take a few for you lurkers.

[Dreylin]

t99 - so yeah no screenies last night ... maybe this morning, eh?

Constantinople: Market - I feel like I should take a run at another Wonder here; the Parthenon & Mausoleum jump out at me - one for denial, and the other I just like. I'll think about it some more during the turn before deciding.

Adrianople: Caravel - Longbow (to stay in the city as MP & guard)
Nicaea: Market - Barracks (this will be my military city for the Ni!)
Antioch: Barracks - Harbour (health & tick the trade routes up a notch)
Nicomedia: Lighthouse - Worker (need to start clear-cutting the Jungle)


OK, Krill has Optics and the borders of Lands End have expanded, so now he knows where I am. Interestingly, he's also received Engineering from Darrell, but Darrell has yet to receive Education ... I guess that's so SL's research doesn't get the discount, but it does mean that Darrell can't start Liberalism yet.

Bearing in mind Krill's new visibility, I swap the Worker build at Nicomedia to another Caravel. I'll get another Worker over from the mainland and maybe build a fourth afterwards.

Trebizond whips Buddhist Temple and needs to decide on either a Courthouse or a Caravel next. Expenses are at 8gpt, but I do want to start exploring South of the position to scout out any new islands.

Guilds will complete this turn at 10% Research, but rather than running all-gold, I think I'll send a bunch of EPs at Darrell to get visibility on his research. My base EPs is 10/t, which I've been sending against Krill; I'll arrange to send the same his way next turn to decrease the chance he notices what I've done (yeah, right), so I need ~60EPs towards Darrell. 40% gives me 56EPs to send against him for a total of 95, but visibility threshold is currently 100. That should come down due to the added discrepancy in EP spending, but I don't know that it will be enough. So 50% sends 70EPs at him which will be plenty. That runs me to -7g this turn, as my break-even rate is approximately 55% research/espionage.

I check the log and ... SL got his low-odds Artist. Curses, guess he's going all the way through Edu.

OK, I'm going to make a grab for the Mausoleum in Constantinople ... I just don't see that the Parthenon would do enough for me to be worth grabbing for denial.

Right, Ruff doesn't seem to be around at the moment, so let's see about grabbing some screenies!

Since they're overview shots and you might want to see them full-sized, I'll put them in a separate post so you don't have to scroll to read the text. Oh, and Darrell's saving gold on Astronomy at the moment.

EDIT: Oh Arse, Krill has Gunpowder already.

[Dreylin]

[SIZE="5"]Here's a shot of my core:[/SIZE]


[SIZE="5"]The South (note the blue borders visible East of Trebizond):[/SIZE]


[SIZE="5"]and finally the West:[/SIZE]

[Dreylin]

Diplo:

I am clearing about 30g per turn but more cities are going down soon.

I'm in support mode so you guys make the decision regarding what you want to do.

Ruff

Well not wanting to be overly depressive about things but I think I'm pretty-much hosed. Krill has Gunpowder already, and SL just popped his low-odds Artist. So the question becomes, can SL research through Liberalism before Krill can complete Chemistry? We do have the extra turn it will take him to trade it to Darrell in our favour, but I don't know if that will be enough.

OTOH, we could start researching Gunpowder, Chemistry and Astronomy ourselves ... I reckon that's >20t for one researcher at full-bore, and we can maybe fund 1.5 full-time researchers, so maybe 15t?

Personally, I don't see my having much chance of surviving for very long once Krill has Frigates in the water even without Cannon, but they'd be the icing on the cake. I guess we need a better idea of exactly how long it will take SL to get to Liberalism, but if we do think that it's close I still think we should roll the dice and race. It's risky, but I think that beating them to Liberalism is the only chance I have of surviving for very long.

OK, so the above was written before I chatted to Darrell. He says that Krill can get to Chemistry in 2t & Steel in 5t after that. Apparently Darrell was intending to include Engineering in his side of the trade, and now is offering to supply Astronomy as well for future considerations. Ah, I don't know anymore; I don't really see a way where Krill doesn't start to trample all over us(me) soon.

I'll start saving up gold next turn so I can start on Gunpowder once SL has completed Education - may as well maximise the discount, right?

Dreylin.

and the chat with Darrell:

me: Hey Darrell

Darrell: hey

me: so you chose a side...

Darrell: did I?

me: yep

Darrell: errr...which sid?

me: Krill's

Darrell: oh
I wouldn't say that.
Did Ruff/SL talk to you?

me: oh yes
but the deal sucks for me
because Krill has >10t head-start on Steel
and then I'm hosed

Darrell: That's what I was asking SL to figure out
How long it would take you guys to get Chemistry
You get Guilds this turn right, so its Gunpowder -> Chemistry at full tech rate.

me: ah
Eng
and Astro for the other half of our trade

Darrell: Whoever makes the most beakers techs, the otehr two gold fund.
Well...I don't think you can deliver astro in a timely manner, so I was thinking I would deliver Astro and you guys would just owe me

me: all the while skipping Edu and falling further behind on research rate

Darrell: And I'd trust you

me: nice plan

Darrell: Why skip Edu?
Best techer on Gunpwoder/Chmestiry
Second best on Education
Ruff funding the other two for 100% research

me: misses the bonus on G-powder
ahahahaha

Darrell: You'll get some bonus from Krill having GUnpowder

me: you underestimate research costs & Ruff's ability to make gold
*expenses
his current 45gpt couldn't fund either of us at 100%

Darrell: I mean, three guys are getting Engineering, Liberalism and Chemistry for the price of Guilds and Astronomy, with the Astronomy price deferred until later.
And you are complaining
Do you know how long it would take Krill to slow tech Steel?

me: wait a sec
Eng, Lib & Chem?

Darrell: Steel, not Chemistry...sorry
Yeah.

me: BTW, no-one mentioned we'd get Eng as well

Darrell: I told SL I'd trade you guys those three techs for Guilds and Astronomy.

me: oh, must have been another chat
the one he sent just said Lib & Steel

Darrell: I have no idea what they told you but that is what I think I said and certainly meant to say.
I am going to send you Engineering ofr Guilds immeidately
Then the otehr two as soon as I can
Have you seen Krill's GNP?

me: yes

Darrell: Its more than twice mine.

me: and food
and prod
and how close he is to me

Darrell: Its about as much as the rest of us together
He techs Chemistry in two turns.
Steel is not going to slow him down

me: yeah, and now you're helping him

Darrell: I'm saving him maybe 5 turns
I'm saving the rest of us 15
15 might be an exaggeration but you get the drift

me: Oh yes

Darrell: He's closer to me than to you, and when I send Steel around you think he's going to be happy?

me: I guess my imminent demise must be blinding me

Darrell: Consider the alternative...he slings Astronomy and techs to Steel. That happens maybe 5 turns slower with his GNP.
So now he has a Steel monopoly and we maybe have Gunpowder.
Frigates eat the hell out of Galleons, especially with Drydocks.

me: uh-huh
and what do you think he's going to be doing with his 10t lead on us anyway?

Darrell: does it really take you 10t to tech to chemistyr?
remember you'll get a discount with 2 of us having the tech

me: Well I'm getting 5t on Gunowder
& then 9t on Chem
so yeah

Darrell: gimme a sec to check something

Great Scientist:

Writing
Mathematics
Scientific Method
Physics
Education
Printing Press
Fiber Optics
Computers
Laser (BTS)
The Wheel
Alphabet (BTS)
Philosophy
Chemistry

me: PP

Darrell: yeah Im looking now to see if it can be blocked

me: no

Darrell: does everyohne have paper?

me: Paper + Alpha + Mach = PP
Ruff doesn't

Darrell: too bad his tech rate sucks
but I bet a bulb gets you most of the way there
and I think he's getting a GS
or it might have been SL.

me: SL popped an Artist

Darrell: Divine Right ftw
good for him since he's going culture I guess
you and ruff need to see if you can get a GS in the next 7 turns I Guess
better ruff since you can't get it to him in time

me: Hah, like Culture is an option!

Darrell: SL is going for culture, I'd bet my bottome dollar on it.
Not going to happen of course but I think that's what he's doing

Anyway, going back to it do the math. If gunpowder-chemistry->steel is 29 turns for you, and about 12 for Krill, you still think helping him sling it was a mistake?
he could get there on his own in 12 turns!
I got to run now but think about it a bit...

[Dreylin]

Word back from Ruff & SL:

I've improved my gold income to about 50g per turn. Shout if you need it.

Ruff

Hi Both,

Excuse my french but F*cking RNG... I made the odds of GA 6%...

Without help from a GS bulb I am a good 9-10t away from landing Lib... otherwise we'd have had it in 5t.

I propose to finish Education and then reasses from there. We need to get some sea defences up asap so I support the route of gaining frigates.

Dreylin - I'd take ruff's gold and get on with Gunpowder. Also - can I borrow your stone? - I'd like to knock out maoi.

Cheers,
SL