Uncommonly Good: A Story of Elves

[Man Behind the Mask]

Thanks to darrelljs for his sympathy :neenernee

I wish I knew. I'm trying to read the XML to find the spot that describes lair spawns, since it's certainly not in the wiki or the manual or the FFHpedia. It might well be easier to search RB, though.

There was a fairly depressing discussion of mistforms in the Adventure 1 reporting day thread, where DaveV revealed it's in the python, not XML (here).

I have absolutely zero abililty to read code, so I won't tell you how terrified I got after searching "bigbad" in the customfunctions file.

Hope the turn makes it round later.

[Mardoc]

Huh - in that case, there's another avenue for hope:

After checking the python code, I think minions come in a group of 0-4.

Maybe, just maybe, we got the 0 result.

[Gaspar]

Well, I have some ability to read code, and so after that directive I took a look. The relevant code is here:

Code:

def exploreLairBigBad(self, caster):
        iPlayer = caster.getOwner()
        pPlot = caster.plot()
        pPlayer = gc.getPlayer(caster.getOwner())

        lList = ['UNIT_AZER']
        lPromoList = ['PROMOTION_MUTATED', 'PROMOTION_CANNIBALIZE', 'PROMOTION_MOBILITY1', 'PROMOTION_STRONG', 'PROMOTION_BLITZ', 'PROMOTION_COMMAND1', 'PROMOTION_HEROIC_STRENGTH', 'PROMOTION_HEROIC_DEFENSE', 'PROMOTION_MAGIC_IMMUNE', 'PROMOTION_STONESKIN', 'PROMOTION_VALOR', 'PROMOTION_VILE_TOUCH']
        lHenchmanList = ['UNIT_AZER', 'UNIT_GRIFFON']
        if self.grace() == False:
            lList = lList + ['UNIT_AIR_ELEMENTAL']
        if not pPlot.isWater():
            lList = lList + ['UNIT_ASSASSIN', 'UNIT_OGRE', 'UNIT_GIANT_SPIDER', 'UNIT_HILL_GIANT', 'UNIT_SPECTRE', 'UNIT_SCORPION']
            lHenchmanList = lHenchmanList + ['UNIT_AXEMAN', 'UNIT_WOLF', 'UNIT_CHAOS_MARAUDER', 'UNIT_WOLF_RIDER', 'UNIT_MISTFORM', 'UNIT_LION', 'UNIT_TIGER', 'UNIT_BABY_SPIDER', 'UNIT_FAWN', 'UNIT_SCORPION']

If I'm reading that right, we're in the early enough game that these are our only options. Since the "lList" spawned a spectre from the options (other choices were Azer, Assassin, Ogre, Giant Spider, Hill Giant or Scorpion) and gave it command one, here are the possible "henchmen" spawns that could be invisible:

Mistform.

That's the whole list.

The only other possible option is that the spectre spawned with 0 henchmen, which as Dave indicated in the post you referenced, is a possibility. So basically we've got 3 possibilities for the near term:

1. Completely screwed. If the Spectre beats the Brawler AND spawned with a mistform(s), we're going to lose. The mistform comes in and eats our garrison and the Wraith razes the city. Even at 1 warrior/turn, we can't hold that off, since they get at least 2 attacks per turn, and we'll never have odds on the wraith. Conceivably, we could get lucky on the mistform (3 base str + 50% for fortification bonus and in a city + 20% cultural defense = 5.1 str for a warrior in the city right now. A mistform is effective str 7 (6+1 shadow) so that's in the misforms favor, but not unbeatably so. Unfortunately, once it gets a couple kills it will become unkillable with anything we can generate. A wraith on the other hand, is effective str 9 (6+3 death). There's absolutely nothing before MotT that we can do to defend against that.

2. Relatively screwed. If the Spectre beats the Brawler AND did not spawn with mistforms OR if the spectre loses and did spawn with mistform(s). In this instance, we can probably continue to generate sufficient number of 1T warriors that they'll never take the city, and we can begin a deathly slow crawl to WotF. If any other civ walks by or if we get a barb warrior/lizardman strolling in, its game over. But otherwise, we're just out of the running to win.

3. Totally fine. Brawler beats the spectre and he spawned with nothing. Brawler gets some xp and life goes in Elfland, we get back to making episodic posts and everyone's happy.

I would say option 2 is most likely, but I think 1 and 3 are both possibilities. Of all turns, WHY IS NICOLAE SITTING ON THE SAVE!?

[Gaspar]

Save just moved to Brian. Brian and Kyan, please still be awake!

[Mardoc]

Mistform.

That's the whole list.

Well, damn.

The only other possible option is that the spectre spawned with 0 henchmen, which as Dave indicated in the post you referenced, is a possibility. So basically we've got 3 possibilities for the near term:

1. Completely screwed. If the Spectre beats the Brawler AND spawned with a mistform(s), we're going to lose. The mistform comes in and eats our garrison and the Wraith razes the city. Even at 1 warrior/turn, we can't hold that off, since they get at least 2 attacks per turn, and we'll never have odds on the wraith. Conceivably, we could get lucky on the mistform (3 base str + 50% for fortification bonus and in a city + 20% cultural defense = 5.1 str for a warrior in the city right now. A mistform is effective str 7 (6+1 shadow) so that's in the misforms favor, but not unbeatably so. Unfortunately, once it gets a couple kills it will become unkillable with anything we can generate. A wraith on the other hand, is effective str 9 (6+3 death). There's absolutely nothing before MotT that we can do to defend against that.

2. Relatively screwed. If the Spectre beats the Brawler AND did not spawn with mistforms OR if the spectre loses and did spawn with mistform(s). In this instance, we can probably continue to generate sufficient number of 1T warriors that they'll never take the city, and we can begin a deathly slow crawl to WotF. If any other civ walks by or if we get a barb warrior/lizardman strolling in, its game over. But otherwise, we're just out of the running to win.

3. Totally fine. Brawler beats the spectre and he spawned with nothing. Brawler gets some xp and life goes in Elfland, we get back to making episodic posts and everyone's happy.

I would say option 2 is most likely, but I think 1 and 3 are both possibilities. Of all turns, WHY IS NICOLAE SITTING ON THE SAVE!?

Um. What's the garrison at the moment? Suppose it's 2a - Wraith only. Can we throw enough bodies at him to have a chance?

I agree odds are that it's a spectre we kill plus 1 or more Mistforms, which we have no chance of killing until Hunting and a poor chance then. Keeping my fingers crossed for the unlikely outcome, though.

Why didn't I talk you out of this?!?

[Mardoc]

[SIZE="5"]Arrrgh!!![/SIZE]

Nicolae,

just incase you haven't read your most recent emails you sent me the save meant for yourself about half an hour ago, not the one meant for me.

I'd be more than happy to play your turn as well as mine tonight, but a) I don't have the password and b) other players may object (for purely petty reasons naturally:neenernee)

Brian.

We do plan to kill Nicolae, right? Right?

[Gaspar]

[SIZE="5"]Arrrgh!!![/SIZE]



We do plan to kill Nicolae, right? Right?

Ugh. Kyan's probably off to bed by now, so we're definitely missing a turn. And if we weren't before, we're definitely killing Nicolae now if he survives.

And uh, so, uh, you guys are all going to come with me to PBEM9, right?

[Mardoc]

And uh, so, uh, you guys are all going to come with me to PBEM9, right?

It might not be necessary. There's still an, admittedly unlikely, couple ways for you to survive this.

But yes, if you make the other arrangements for a game to exist, I'm happy to work together in the future. I like your style (if not your unlucky lair-popping ways ).

[Azoth]

Of course we'll follow you to PBEM9. In the meantime, I'm still keen for more info.
Under what circumstances, exactly, can a barbarian Spectre upgrade to a Wraith?
I though it went something like Skeleton + 2 promotions = Spectre and Spectre + 2 promotions = Wraith.
But that might be false or out of date.

Also, I double-checked the manual, and Mistforms are Strength 6 + 1 Shadow Affinity.
The barbarians have no Shadow mana, so the Mistforms will be only Strength 6.
6 v. 5.1 fortified warrior in capital aren't bad odds. (Go, go, creative culture!)

[Mardoc]

Azoth,

I think you're right about the XP requirements for upgrades. But a spectre who defeated BB uphill into a forest would almost certainly gain the XP he needs, right?

On a related note, it occurred to me that Bayes might be a reasonable way to model the question of Mistform or no Mistform, given that we don't see any henchmen. Assuming the random call is for an evenly distributed number from 0 to 4, and similarly we got a random henchman of the 12 possibilities.
Notation note: P(A|B) translates to probability of A, given B

P(Mistform|see nothing) = {P(See nothing|Mistform) * P(Mistform)}/P(see nothing).

P(See nothing|Mistform) = 1; we're never going to see anything if there's a mistform.
P(Mistform) = 1/12 * 4/5 = 1/15. (1 out of 12 henchmen, times a 4/5 chance that the # was between 1 and 4)
P(See nothing) = 1/12 (for a Mistform) + 1/5 (chance there really is nothing) - 1/12*1/5 (overlap between the two) = 4/15

Plug that all into the Bayes theorem and we get P(Mistform|see nothing) = {1 * 1/15} / (4/15) = 1/4.

So converting that back to english, there's only a 1/4 chance of a mistform there, given that we see nothing. We can start breathing again . Well, until we open up the save and convert that 1/4 chance of Mistform(s) into a yes or no actual answer .

Of course, the next question is clear - suppose there really was no Mistform there, and we beat the spectre. Do we gamble again?