[SPOILERS] Ceiliazul's First Dance: Louis of the Ottomen

[Commodore]

[
Catwalk had his own ideas. He sent me this shot with colored dots, I added the yellow lines overlaying the 'fair' boundaries above



Obviously we are far apart on our ideas here. And really, why should I want to give Catwalk a 'fair' portion of the spoils of a war that he didn't join??

Well, he's being exceedingly generous with Ad Hoc's share, I notice, not to mention allowing a great pink dot up on Pegasus...which I see now you've already claimed.

Is he planning on capturing Baby? Ideally, the city ought to be razed and those great capital lands split into Roman and Ottomen shares. Beyond that, if you'd move his "B" south one (massive 4 food site) and bump his "A" 1S of whales on the plains hill, that seems a much more fair division, especially, as you say, you've been doing the heavy lifting.

He's also fighting a war that should be getting 100% of his attention, not crashing his iffy economy (making +4gpt at 20% research) by expanding into his backlines. Maybe do a tit for tat and ask for a share in the Pegasus lands?

[Ceiliazul]

Well, he's being exceedingly generous with Ad Hoc's share, I notice
...
Is he planning on capturing Baby?
...
He's also fighting a war that should be getting 100% of his attention, not crashing his iffy economy (making +4gpt at 20% research) by expanding into his backlines.

In order:

Yes, he does tend to be generous when giving away other people's things. He does it against himself too... For example we negotiated the lux regions so I'd get Ivory (my North), he'd get Gems (my East), and Fur was first come. I claimed Ivory, Ad Hoc settled the gems before Catwalk got there, and I took the furs due to his conservative dotmapping.

No, he's not planning on capturing Baby... he wants me to capture it for him. He mentioned this during our initial negotiations, but it was such an unknown quantity that I refused to promise anything. It is much more valuable capture on t100 than it would have been at t60, so I'm dang glad I didnt sign it away.

As it is, I agree 100%, the city should be razed. If not for settlin parity, then for better dotmapping. The capital we were each given is simply not awesome... a city on the hill 2W of the fish would be much better!

Now the third thing is a pair of aces for me. Between the war with Pegasus and my huge economic advantage, I don't think he can afford too much expansion. In fact, with Pegasus and Catwalk occupied, NO ONE canp expand much... except me.

I have 190gnp, ~75 raw beakers per turn

Catwalk has 109gnp, ~40 beakers
Pegasus has 118gnp, ~30 beakers*
Ad Hoc has 85gnp, ~20 beakers

*all estmates at breakeven from t71, before Pegasus began mobilizing.

So I'm thinking that not only did I work to earn this land, I have the capacity to settle a generous portion of it. Oh, and remember my NAP with Ad Hoc was extended out to t120. During negotiations I estimated this land would take about 40 turns to settle completely... right around t120!

[Ceiliazul]

Lost shields

When Pegasus stopped expanded, I couldn't figure out where his shields were going. I openly speculated with Catwalk that they were going into banked army... but seemed a little silly to me.

It turns out, the actual answer is much much worse:



Seriously? My cities have happy caps average of FOURTEEN! I understand building one if he really felt the Hanging Gardens was worth it... but three? The odds of a stalemate war with Catwalk just went through the floor. Bummer dude.

In happier news, I did some sims with the downtime (Peg's been holding every turn for ~36 hours) and found a better use for my engineer:



I settled him in Biohazard. Great Library will complete in 6t, and my sims showed that it didn't really effect tech. My next GP will come from Hazard regardless, and this way I might be able to get a Mausolleum assisted Golden Age right around t88!

Demographics show my gnp coming down, but my production way up. My tech rates are good enough that I'm no longer commerce limited... I swapped to more production tiles for now. In fact, I'm reconsidering some of my pre-game assumptions... they've served me well in the stone age, but these are modern times! Well, relatively anyway... stay tuned for more in my t75 report.

[Ceiliazul]

Turn 74: Looking back

With turn 75 and the traditional huge updates upon us, lets look back first.

[SIZE="3"]My gameplay:[/SIZE]

I feel I've done many things well so far, in pre-game analysis and in-game decisions. There's also quite a lot to improve on in my next game, and that'll come up further down. Regardless, The Ottoman empire looks quite strong as the new millenium dawns. My traits have served me well, Creative cementing some aggressive cities, Industrious assisting with the single best wonder (assuming a normal tech tree) for the entire game on this map. My civ choice hasn't done anything for me yet, but will begin to add value very soon.

In pre-game analysis, I believe I was correct in realizing that commerce and high maintenance would be the early-game drivers. As such, I prioritized my early cities to provided maximum early commerce. There have been distractions, but the game plan was sound. I did a good job of threat analysis and demo spying, yielding an uncommitted and unprepared early game opponent. I did peg Pegasus as the chief rival, but that's because Catwalk was an unknown. That early impression has been corrected!

I think I rushed the wonders too fast. The Oracle, in particular, was rushed at the expense of huge worker investment. If I was willing to delay the Oracle by 2t, I could have had granaries up much earlier.

Speaking of granaries, that was another major gaff. I did not prioritize granaries, and subsequently delayed making real use of slavery.

The number one thing I think I've done well is planning. Worker labor is preplanned so cities get food/chops instantly. Since my initial four cities, granaries have been whipped in EVERY city upon growth to size 2. Early game every move was charted out 10 turns, in full color, on a spreadsheet.

Even now, I'm running my sim 2-5 turns in advance to make sure I have worker coverage as needed, and planning my whips. All this has resulted in cities that are maximizing their production, as soon as possible. Less dead weight per city means shorter gaps between growth cycles.

[SIZE="3"]Opponent Analysis:[/SIZE]


Catwalk:
Expansion: B
Tech: B
Diplo A
Play Timer: A

Finding his footing on game mechanics and learning at a frightening rate. Outperforming all other opponents, he's likely to be leading rival for the remainder of the game. Cautious in game choices and in diplo, to the point of missing opportunities. I get the feeling he second guesses himself a bit too much, but covers with humor and has fun anyway. That makes him a good opponent in my book, whether we're allies or not.

He is at war with Pegasus, and much hinges on the outcome of that war. Although the battle is not yet met, he still exudes caution. Unfortunately, he seems to be inexperienced at war. For example, he forgot that Iron actually has to be mined before building sword units.


Pegasus:
Expansion: C
Tech: A
Diplo: C
Play Timer: D

I get a vibe from him like he expects to lose. He sat on 5 cities for far too long, and the cultural walls have closed in arund him. Confned in a small space, (except Cull's unsettled lands), he seems to accept game events without much emotion.

That's a problem for me because he is at war with Catwalk. If Pegasus isn't committed to the defense, Catwalk could roll over him with praetorians. That would see the Romans gain a ton of territory quickly. Even if he is committed, he'll need some inspired tactics to overcome Catwalks tremendous production advantage. I'm very disappointed in his Aquaduct builds for this reason.

Diplomatically, it's hard to get much done when it takes three days to respond to an email. He's pretty isolated as a result of this pattern. If he had been more active diplomatically, my intuition says Catwalk would have chosen to ally with Pegasus... and changed the game dramatically!


AdHoc:
Expansion: C
Tech: D
Diplo: B
Play Timer: B

The opposite of Catwalk's caution, Ad Hoc started right off with a religion grab, and followed it up with aggressive settlers toward catwalk. These factors combined to crash his economy, with too few workers to make his land profitable. He did a good job of prioritizing food to recover, but then settled 4 more cities and crashed again. His game in a nutshell: he reached out and settled a lux city, distance 12 from his capital, before settling the crab/cow/horse/fur/FP city.

He's not as hard to contact as Pegasus, but still pretty isolated. Diplo *quantity* shouldn't decide games, but it has certainly steered this game. Initially, Catwalk and AdHoc were joined at the hip. According to Catwalk, that dissolved due to communication struggles.


Cull:

I won't do letter grades, but I will comment briefly. I found Cull to be unprepared for the concepts of multiplayer. He didn't engage in diplo, ever. I caught him in chat once, and he said he was trying some kind of math rush. as Commodore once said "non-standard openings lose games." I like that he didn't cave to my initial extortion of 2 workers. I don't like, that it's because he didn't even HAVE 2 workers on t35.


[SIZE="3"]Meta-Game:[/SIZE]

I entered the game anticipating early war, and prioritizing commerce. That pre-game analysis has served me well. I did a good job of early C&D analysis to identify an unprepared opponent. This was also useful in serving up an early dogpile opponent that wasn't me!

The Sumeria war was tremendously successful for me!

Cost:

• 2 axes earlier than expected
  
• 1 chariot lost

Rewards:

• 168 pillage gold
  
• Heroic Epic enabled
  
• First Great General of the game
  
• More space to expand into
  
• No chance of an early dogpile on me

No meta analysis can ignore the Catwalk alliance. Catwalk came to me, demanding concessions to avoid a 'catpile' against me. I had just completed the pyramids and had a large score lead... but had given up my demographics lead in the process. Our agreement has taken several twists and turns, but here's the summary:

Ceil/Cat Alliance:

• NAP until Pegasus and AdHoc are dead
  
• OB with each other
  
• I give Catwalk 3 spears (t75)
  
• I give Catwalk 1 settler (t90)
  
• Catwalk gives me 1 worker (t65)
  
• Catwalk will attack Pegasus on his own
  
• I will attack AdHoc on my own
  
• Our NAP gets a 10t cooldown after others are dead

Catwalk is the leading rival in every demographic. We're neck and neck for Crop and Mfg, thankfully I have a very significant lead in GNP. The production gap between our alliance and the others continues to grow... we're on track for a one-two finish. I essentially gifted him 100 hammers, but he gave me but he gave me the worker on ~t65, while the majority of my 'tribute' isn't due until t90. In fact, on that time table I think the unit trades actually benefit me!

We have both stated that we're in this for fun. Without reservations, the alliance has increased the fun factor of this game. Civ can become a min/max fest, with a side of manipulation. Instead, Catwalk and I have been VERY open with each other, and when there's conflict we've each been willing to give a little. If I've come out ahead so far it's because Catwalk is still learning the game mechanics. As I said, he's learning quickly, so the game is very much still undecided.

One thing that bears noting: Catwalk pushed rather hard for us to define a victory condition to race for way in advance. During our initial conversations circa 1200BC, he suggested agreeing to a space race victory! That's... almost creepy. I still don't know what it says about Catwalk, but I'm happy that I refused that condition of our alliance.

[pindicator]

I'm glad you're enjoying your game! Hope you and Catwalk continue to have a catkewalk over the rest of the competition

[Commodore]

Good analysis, and I'd largely agree with it, although I think you're being too charitable with Catwalk's chances. You're currently winning this thing at an easy canter, which I realize when running as my dedlurker is probably something you don't see much. The chief weakness of the SE economy is how many food-eating specialists aren't out there working tiles, but if you're topping crop yield and MFG...yeah, I think your opposition is a mite bit outclassed.

The only things I'd worry about at this point would be ensuring that you keep up with expansion, which shouldn't be an issue thanks to Cull's insanity, and a possible sneak-win by Catwalk using something like culture. Securing the Sistine should help remove that temptation (not to mention giving you some amazing borders). My impressions of him from this and other games is that he is generally forthright to a fault, however.

I think I'll have more commentary on the future plans post, which I assume will be turn 75?

[Ceiliazul]

Diplo Wierdness

I got t75, haven't played yet. Peg's power continues to spike, but Catwalk's power went DOWN? He doesnt look like warbound Roman. One of the conditions of our alliance was that once war is declared it's to the death. I thought it was silly at the time, but it was part of the reason I didn't go to war with ad Hoc on t80. I would have had crossbows attacking his capital on t85... but no way I could kill him.

Now Catwalk wants to back out of his war after just one city raze. I have the figure Peg is trying to bribe Catwak, and Catwalk wants to change our agreement.

We've been doin' the give and take thing, but me passing on war with Ad Hoc is kind of a big deal... Catwalk said he'll offer compensation, but what could he possibly give to make up for a neutered rival. Hopefully we can work this out.

[Commodore]

Diplo Wierdness

We've been doin' the give and take thing, but me passing on war with Ad Hoc is kind of a big deal... Catwalk said he'll offer compensation, but what could he possibly give to make up for a neutered rival. Hopefully we can work this out.

Huh, well, how about two neutered rivals? As long as Peg lives, Cat cannot fight you, yes? Well, why not have him make a conditional peace with Pegasus that dissolves if Peg assists Ad Hoc in any fashion once you begin to dismantle him.

[Ceiliazul]

Well, regarding Peg helping Ad Hoc in war, my NAP with Peg states:

Because there has been some controversy here at RB, it seems prudent to say: an NAP means no declaring war, no gifting units to others for proxy war, and no accepting gifts which would otherwise be trophies of conquest for the other.

He did agree to that, although lurking some other games has alerted me to a teensy weensy hole in that rider.

Anyway, a question:

Is there any way to know if an opponent is building wealth? Here's why:



Horror of horrors, Catwalk actually passed my gnp with no tech selected last turn! I figure he's building wealth, but is it possible to know for sure?

[Ceiliazul]

Massive Update Postponed!

Catwalk diplo confusion has sent me diving through old emails and attachments. The alliance has been through many twists and turns. Too many! So the massive update I planned for this turn has been delayed.

Cat Ceiling alliance terms:

10/19 world map given by catwalk
10/24 NAP until t60
10/24 Stonehenge non-compete given by me
11/2 confidentiality pledged
11/20 I got Peg's graphs and shared his gnp dominance with Catwalk

11/20 first alliance:
-NAP until Peg dead
-OB with each other
-3 lux regions divided
-I give 2 settlers
-He gives a settler worker

11/22 'pressure Peg' settlement coordination plan
11/22 2 settlers becomes 3 spears and a settler
11/24 OB with Ad Hoc allowed (to prevent him buddying with Peg)
11/28 I suggest OB with Peg for scouting (10t only)
11/28 Catwalk/Peg cold war starts
12/8 We agree to split victims - Cat/Peg, me/AdHoc
12/9 wait! lets both attack Ad Hoc
12/10 Never mind, split victims

12/13 "definitive list"
-each declares war on their victim
-no diplo with Cull
-OB with anyone
-when one rival left, no OB with them
-agree to victory condition by t80
-extend NAP with rivals no problem
-All your catnip are belong to us

12/13 removed "agree to victory condition" idea
12/14 30t NAP after rivals eliminated
12/29 10t NAP after wars

Some confusion there!

So I got a bit pissy when he Catwalk wanted to change it again. He offered a worker and a settler as compensation for the change... yeah, that'll salve the pain!

Anyway, hopefully we're nailed down now:

[COLOR="YellowGreen"]Catwalk,

I got pretty frustrated yesterday, and I asked myself why that is. I think it's because I've had to put so much of energy into keeping up with changes in our alliance. Most of them have been at your request... so it's frustrating when they get forgotten. I looked back on our diplo and counted (cuz I was curious) 13 changes after the original agreement.

However, I still enjoy our alliance and we can certainly work through this. In fact reading through some of the old stuff was a lot of fun. I agree to remove the "lethal war" clause, per your compensation. Is t80 a good timeline for the worker?

In addition to all that chat, there have also been no fewer than 6 dotmaps. The first one includes the tile your settler now stands on. I thought your agreement with Yuri changed all that, but I have no problem honoring the original plan. The settler will be settled and gifted back. Holy cow 10gpt for that city?? I'm sure Cat Ceiling cost you a similar amount when you helped me out.

I will agree to the Sumerian dotmap (see attached) with the following revisions: I take 'D', 'B' moves 1E, Sumer's capital is razed and neither of us may settle in Sumer's starting 9 tiles. In this way, no settlements will go on the yellow line. We get a buffer to reduce border tension. Part of me still thinks I earned more than an equal share, but I locked that part in the closet.

To prevent future confusion, here's our agreements:
-Full confidentiality of all communication
-Maps of our regions upon request
-NAP until Peg/Ad are dead (NAP as defined in our first diplo)
-No restrictions on NAPs with others
-OB required with each other until others are dead
-You'll take on Pegasus, I'll stay out of it (no units/info to either side)
-I'll take on AdHoc, you'll stay out of it (no units/info to either side)
-Upon death of one rival, no OB with the other.
-Upon death of both rivals, 10t NAP cooldown is in effect. (We could extend it, of course, at that time)

If we can put this to bed, Cat Ceiling domination can continue.

Respectfully,

Ceiliazul[/COLOR]

And Catwalk agreed to this.


t75

Oh yeah, a turn!

Not much happened, actually. Catwalk asked me to return the favor by settling a settler in my culture and gifting back. This was going to cost me 10g to hold it for a turn, but upon checking the F1 screen... I saw the 'Liberate' button!

Is that an RB first??