WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[Psillycyber]

Rowain, I'm not sure what proof you want of my assessment of you. I think you are getting hung up on my initials reads of you. Since early on, I haven't found much at all that would raise my suspicions of you. You seem to be dwelling on past bygones a little bit too much...which, from how the veterans vouch for you, is typical town-Rowain play. If you are just trying to make an objective point about how I've changed my mind here or there...well, yes, people do that from time to time.

[Gazglum]

I'm still trying to work it out, going through people individually. I re-read Psilly, trying to frame him as scum and see if it makes sense. 

He's done well if he is. Looked at in the worst light though, his opening could be a bit contrived. He reads the whole thread fast, thinks that Rowain is scummy and JAbbz townish, then he re-reads and reverses his opinion completely. That sits slightly implausibly with me, could be scum trying to mimic a frazzled townie, but that barely qualifies as evidence.

I think the way he talked to Jabbz was very even-handed, and he was listening to Jabbz's posts. His reasoning for voting DP at the end very logical too, and makes a partnership with DP seem very unlikely.

POst 242 he points out how people are giving Rowain 'a free pass', and wishes he could get the same. That rang a small warning bell to me, because I think in fact people WERE doing the same to Psilly, he got town-leans from basically everyone.

Psilly-Lewwyn is possible. As others have said, Lewwyn was keen to avoid lynching absent-Psilly. 

In its favour I would say that Lewwyn is clearly going to be stressed about having two simultaneous games, and so would quite possibly want out of this one if he thinks he can help the team by doing so. So in the Scum Thread he might say 'I'm going to flounder a bit Day 2, you should help take me down and get town points by doing so.' Psilly already has a lot of town-cred, if he took otu scum-Lewwyn he might think he was well set up to go forward.

Another point in favour of that idea is that Psilly ended last night saying he would look at DP and Rowain, while giving Lewwyn lots of town points. Now he has reversed his position and is voting Lewwyn, which is a slightly unexpected move. 

So Psilly-Lewwyn possible, but I feel it is less likely than DP/someone. I think I will look at Adrien again next.

[Gazglum]

It all came down to my re-reads and thinking it over, Rowain.  Lewwyn just seems scummy as hell for all sorts of reasons.  The only thing that was holding me back was to find a plausible scumbuddy for Lewwyn.  Dp101 actually helped me do that with his far-fetched idea for why Gaz would be Lewwyn's scumbuddy.  

Can you go over your thinking here a bit? You said Lewwyn was likely town at the end of yesterday. After his opening today you said you thought him frustrated town. Now you think he is scum. What changed for you?

[Gazglum]

I think I already mentioned that I think it might be Gaz. By process of elimination, you have been extremely towny, AdrienIer has been looking better (although I haven't actually seen how he plays past D1, he might be great scum), so that leaves Gaz and Rowain. I am leaning towards Gaz because I feel that the kind of argument they had together earlier today can easily come out of scum Lew, and Gaz might be convinced to play along, with the plan being to make it look like Gaz convinced Lew to unvote himself, thus getting towncred from a. what wolf votes themselves and b. pulling a suicidal player back from the lynch. I have no strong feeling either way on Rowain, so it could be with him, and double scum nominations are always a possibility, I just think it is unlikely.

Adrien is 'looking better', but I am likely scum. Why does he get a pass and not me? What actual reason do you have for thinking I am scum? I am, after all, attacking your top suspect - which you have been reluctant to do.

[Gazglum]

Speakign generally, Rowain, I think that the scum are probably Lewwyn and DP, but I am not certain. If not them, I could believe, in approximate order of likelihood:

DP + Rowain
DP + Adrien (where Adrien takes the big gamble that Jabbz won't change vote at the last 5 minutes)
Lewwyn + Psilly
Lewwyn + Adrien

BUt the non-DP partnerships have to take account of DPs very shady play, so I struggle to believe them.

[Gazglum]

In favour of Lewwyn + Adrien (or even Lewwyn + Rowain): again, if Lewwyn decides Day 2 that he doesn't have time for two games, then it would make a lot of sense to put both wolves up for nomination, with the expectation of killing Lewwyn and giving his partner cover.

[Gazglum]

I discount Adrien + Psilly because I think DP and Lewwyn are objectively the most scummy, by quite a long way (and DP much moreso than Lewwyn). I can't believe that they are both town.

[Gazglum]

Rowain, do you think that DP is scum?

[Psillycyber]

I'm still trying to work it out, going through people individually. I re-read Psilly, trying to frame him as scum and see if it makes sense. 

He's done well if he is. Looked at in the worst light though, his opening could be a bit contrived. He reads the whole thread fast, thinks that Rowain is scummy and JAbbz townish, then he re-reads and reverses his opinion completely. That sits slightly implausibly with me, could be scum trying to mimic a frazzled townie, but that barely qualifies as evidence.

I think the way he talked to Jabbz was very even-handed, and he was listening to Jabbz's posts. His reasoning for voting DP at the end very logical too, and makes a partnership with DP seem very unlikely.

POst 242 he points out how people are giving Rowain 'a free pass', and wishes he could get the same. That rang a small warning bell to me, because I think in fact people WERE doing the same to Psilly, he got town-leans from basically everyone.

Psilly-Lewwyn is possible. As others have said, Lewwyn was keen to avoid lynching absent-Psilly. 

In its favour I would say that Lewwyn is clearly going to be stressed about having two simultaneous games, and so would quite possibly want out of this one if he thinks he can help the team by doing so. So in the Scum Thread he might say 'I'm going to flounder a bit Day 2, you should help take me down and get town points by doing so.' Psilly already has a lot of town-cred, if he took otu scum-Lewwyn he might think he was well set up to go forward.

Another point in favour of that idea is that Psilly ended last night saying he would look at DP and Rowain, while giving Lewwyn lots of town points. Now he has reversed his position and is voting Lewwyn, which is a slightly unexpected move. 

So Psilly-Lewwyn possible, but I feel it is less likely than DP/someone. I think I will look at Adrien again next.

People aren't saying I'm town just because "that's Psilly being Psilly."  What I mean by Rowain getting a "free pass" is that people are giving town-reads on Rowain in spite of some of his posts (and posters are even openly acknowledging that), whereas I had the impression that people were giving town reads on me because of the content of my posts.  In other words, I feel like I've earned my town leans.  If I started giving out scum vibes, I doubt I would get the same benefit of the doubt as Rowain has gotten.  

So, I've looked at Dp and found reason to double-down on his scumminess.  As for Rowain, it's hard to say much.  I find that he's playing it pretty cool so far on Day 2 by not casting a vote yet.  But otherwise, there's not really anything impeachable in his Day 2 play.  On his Day 1 play, I think he gave Jabbz a fair chance to save himself and, as Rowain has pointed out, didn't necessarily impute any ill motives to Jabbz's play at first.  Verbally, Rowain was tenacious about not letting Jabbz slide, but after re-reading I notice that, if you look at the votes, Rowain was actually one of the later ones to give up on Jabbz and settle on him, which I find fair.  

It all came down to my re-reads and thinking it over, Rowain.  Lewwyn just seems scummy as hell for all sorts of reasons.  The only thing that was holding me back was to find a plausible scumbuddy for Lewwyn.  Dp101 actually helped me do that with his far-fetched idea for why Gaz would be Lewwyn's scumbuddy.  

Can you go over your thinking here a bit? You said Lewwyn was likely town at the end of yesterday. After his opening today you said you thought him frustrated town. Now you think he is scum. What changed for you?

As for what has changed me on Lewwyn, the biggest thing was noticing that his views and yours were similar for most of Day 1 (both on Jabbz and Dp).  Then, at the very end, Lewwyn said contradictory things on Jabbz, and then at the start of Day 2 comes in with this unnaturally adversarial assumption that you, Gaz, are the enemy, even though I would think that the natural inclination for a townie would be to see someone else with similar reads on Day 1 in a sympathetic light.  I mean, all of the sudden he comes out accusing you of ill-motives for wanting to lynch Jabbz, as if you OBVIOUSLY should have seen it was a bad idea, even when he was on-board for lynching Jabbz most of Day 1 and never explicitly tried to rally people to the idea that a Jabbz lynch was bad.  

I'm definitely getting vibes of WWW42 where town Winston got lynched on Day 1 for understandable reasons, and some posters turned around and acted SHOCKED, SHOCKED, that anyone could lynch Winston even though hardly anyone had had anything good to say about him all the previous day.  Now, I know that one of those faux-outrage people in WWW42 was Novice, who ended up being town, so it's not impossible that a frustrated townie could have that reaction, and I was predisposed to read Lewwyn in that light at first.  But the evidence just kept mounting up as I re-read Lewwyn.

[Rowain]

  The only thing I can think of is that this is a scum gambit only slightly less audacious than the Gaz + Lewwyn scum theatre gambit I discussed earlier, where scum Lewwyn is fine with flipping as scum so long as he appears to have been trying to make a gambit to incriminate Gaz + Dp101 to get one or both of them mislynched as townies...meaning that he was setting things up to imply (after Lewwyn flips) that Dp101 is town, thus bringing his scumbuddy back from the brink. 

The big problem with that theory is that if Lewwyn is scum wee have 3 more days to find the missing scum (well 2 as on D4 scum forces us again to choose between 3 people ). So chances that we don't hit Dp who was topsuspect yesterday, who would be lynched today if there were a chance (no one has even suggested he is town so far) are rather slim. So slim that I really doubt that scum Lewwyn would take such a shot no matter how time-constraint he might be.

Rowain, do you think that DP is scum?

Here is the problem: His play so far has been scummy. He tries to get forgotten, his logic for why Lewwyn is scum and a pair with Gazglum seems far fetched. But if DP is scum then I find it hard to find anybody else to be his scumbuddy besides you Mr Glum. And while Lewwyn is sure he found scum in you I still fail to see it. So I'm bound to look elsewhere.