[SPOILERS] Dip4 Turkish Delight: scooter dies first

[scooter]

Sent to dtay:

Dtay,

Hello to the other corner of this world! I guess we don't have lots to talk about, but it's nearly impossible for us to be enemies in this game anytime soon, so I figure that probably makes us natural friends to some degree. Any guesses how your side of the world will shake out? It's still early over here, but I do fear a bit of a quick dogpile just because Rowain is apparently reminding all my neighbors that I won the last game.

Anyway, feel free to email/chat me anytime. I believe I just added you on chat, so I should be available now.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

And with that, I have at least a little contact with everyone.

[scooter]

Quick reply from dtay:

Agree not much to talk about right now.

I tend to be very blunt in diplo-emails, so in regards to the second question, I don't really know yet how the western triangle will break down, but if I'm honest I'm also unlikely to tell you when I do get an inkling, since there are only downsides. I would benefit none from telling you since you can't affect anyone over here, any trust building benefits are equally ephemeral at this point for the same reason, and there's the downside the info leaks somehow to someone important.

That said, once things are resolved a bit such that mutually beneficial actions are possible, we should certainly talk about actual concrete things.

Good luck surviving the potential dogpile.
dtay of Albion

Hah! I like this guy.

[scooter]

Replied to Mattimeo:

Mattimeo,

Thanks for the message, just a quick reply to confirm receipt. I haven't heard a whole lot yet either, any contact so far seems limited to the usual hello let's be friends chit-chat, so I'm afraid I don't have much to report. Good luck in your theater of the world, hopefully we'll both have enough success to have more meaningful diplo later.

Any clues or guesses on what Italy is planning? That's the wild card as usual, and MJW is quite a character.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

[scooter]

Got an interesting reply from Twinkletoes:

scooter,

I definitely agree that a Black Sea DMZ could send out a message of cooperation and inspire the Italians and Austrians to ally, though it would seem like the Italians could be won over to our side. His first message to me was simply "do you have an alliance with Turkey or something?" so it seems the word is going around.

Now we could go crazy and try and kill these rumours early by letting me into BLA in the spring. The MOS army will not move to SEV (UKR looks the most likely choice) and I will move to Rum with the BLA fleet as expected in the Fall as its much easier to get a centre and trying to stab you this early would be very limited in terms of profitability and make the Balkans even more of a clusterfuck.

I only suggest this as it would give you great opportunity to badmouth me to A & I which would give a great smokescreen to our cooperation plus potentially give us the possibility of greater gains against Austria who will expect a DMZ or bounce. It may also draw some players into re-assessing your threat level, thinking that you've made a 'noob mistake' letting me in, which could be profitable given that three nations have already named you as their most fearsome opponent!

Of course, this would require major trust and you may not have the will to give it a crack. I would understand that entirely. My worry is that people are mentioning a juggernaut already and the only way to catch them off guard with it is to do something unexpected. I am someone who would like to play a pretty honest game and win with an ally than try stabs all over the place and end up in a long tie or defeat. We can work together, and while I may be putting the cart before the horse, I am prepared to offer this to you and put some cards on the table.

Take some time to think about it, and if there are demands/concessions you would require for a plan like this to work, I would gladly listen to them and try and accommodate some adequate reward for your trust.

TT

---

Gaspar and I exchanged a couple quick messages about it:

Hrm. Not sure I like this alliance setup where theres a lot of chatter about you and we give TT BLA and uh... we get, wishes and hopes?

Yeah I'm not sure what to say to that, I can't think of what real benefit we get here. I don't really think Twinkletoes is the type to 1901 stab, but this just seems like unnecessary risk.

The one thing I would want down the line (if we're going to work with TT) is for that Sev fleet to get disbanded. It really serves no purpose for Russia other than for stabbing Turkey, and Turkey really wants to get fleets into the Med quickly rather than holding back to defend against Russia.

So I'm trying to figure what measure of risk is acceptable if it brings promises of that fleet disbandment in a year or two. One perk of not moving into Black Sea in 1901 is if I'm sure of Russia's honesty, I can slip into the Med quickly to try to prevent Italy from trying anything funny if he goes that route.

[scooter]

Gaspar did say this to me:

Yeah, I agree that's the ideal. I just feel like we need to get a something from TT to agree to it. Right now he's just offering air. See if you can pin him down to that disbandment and maybe a decent split in the Balkans?

Good thoughts. So I sent this to TT:

Twinkletoes,

So, your idea regarding Black Sea gives me pause. I don't think I'm 100% opposed to it in principle, but I'm not super comfortable agreeing to do that without some sort of assurances about how we'll do things going forward. Ceding the Black Sea for S1901 with no promises about which centers we'll get, what happens to that fleet longterm, etc. all adds up to make me a little uneasy.

From reading through your email, I do get the impression you're at least willing to discuss these things, though. So that's a great positive. From my perspective, there are two main issues that I would want assurances about.

1) A fair split of the centers. From my perspective, that gives you Rumania, Budapest, and Vienna, while I take the others. That does give me 4 of the 7 Austria + Balkan centers, but Russia's opportunities for northern expansion is generally softer than Turkey's prospects for southern expansion, and Russia does naturally benefit a little more from an RT alliance. I guess what I'm trying to say is asking for 4/7 is really just a request to even things out a tad rather than greed on my part. Reality is just that it's a lot easier for Russia to get to 10+ centers than it is for Turkey.

2) The Sevastopol fleet is always going to be awkward. Turkey's fleets generally want to sail into the Med pretty quickly because that's an avenue of expansion, which would make Russia sleep easier. However, Russia's fleet in Sev serves no real purpose other than to attack/stab Turkey, so that would always make things a little tense. Even just parking that fleet in Sev is not the greatest thing for peace of mind . One option that's on the table is that we work together to disband that fleet in a year or two, that way you replace it with an army. That way I sleep better at night, and you can get a more useful unit than a F you aren't going to use. That requires a lot of mutual trust, but I don't think it's necessarily a bigger ask than ceding Black Sea for S1901.

I hope those two things don't read as demands (I'm all for further discussion), but from my perspective those are the two crucial hurdles for us to really seal a strong alliance, and if we had those in place right away, I'd feel a lot better putting my trust in you to take the Black Sea in S1901, delaying the amount of time it takes for others to figure out that we're cooperating. I should be around and on chat over the next 1-2 hours, so I'd be happy to talk about this directly.

Thanks,
scooter - Turkey

That's a little overly-wordy, but whatever, I just wanted to get it sent. TT is striking me as being genuine in his discussion, and he doesn't seem the type to go through all this effort just for a 1901 stab. So I'm going to continue to pursue this and see how he reacts to this email. Those really are chips on the table - if he agrees to both of those conditions, I'm willing to play risky in 1901 for the purpose of getting a little bit of diplomatic leverage. That's my feeling anyway. Gaspar, do you agree or not?

[Gaspar]

Yeah, I think its worth it if he'll agree. I mean obviously he could always stab but that's diplomacy.

Plus you can probably get some mileage out of playing the victim when he goes to BLA in Spring.

[scooter]

Chatted with TT (Russia) over my email:

Twinkletoes
hey

scooter
hey
got my email I take it?

Twinkletoes
just reading your reply now

scooter
ok cool

Twinkletoes
seems promising

scooter
glad to hear it!

Twinkletoes
I was hoping you would let me know what you wanted for the BLA thing, as I didn't want to guess
and you have, so that helps

scooter
yeah I figured why dance around it or keep it vague

Twinkletoes
I'm not averse to disbanding the fleet at some point

scooter
it's hard to pin down an exact time when it's best to do that right this minute
I mostly just mean at a sensible time

Twinkletoes
yeah
the centre split isn't too bad either

scooter
I really wasn't trying to play hardball there, to me that's just realistic view of how things will shake out if this is really going to work

Twinkletoes
yeah its pretty fair
the issue we have is Italy

scooter
you mean in terms of whether italy participates?

Twinkletoes
yes, and if it doesn't, it can't be supporting AH

scooter
right. I wish Italy would just sail west
unfortunately I haven't really gotten anywhere with MJW so far

Twinkletoes
me neither
only email was asking if we had an alliance

scooter
I wasn't sure if that was an indication of him ignoring me because he's made other deals already or he's just not been all that active
gotcha

Twinkletoes
and if we get him onside, he wants 2 centres

scooter
for me, if we commit to something concrete together, italy is just next on my target list after austria gets finished off

Twinkletoes
indeed
though I will have to keep an eye on my north
England is pretty demanding

scooter
right. well I imagine scandanavia would be your next target. and/or germany, depending on how the wind is blowing in EFG

Twinkletoes
and I struggle to trust Mattimeo

scooter
yeah, dtay's reply to the one message I sent him was pretty stern

Twinkletoes
if Matt causes trouble for me in Sweden, I may have issues

scooter
has he threatened your ownership of sweden?

Twinkletoes
not yet, but given how confident England was on Norway, I reckon he'll go for me
thinking I'll be distracted in the South or on Austria

scooter
I don't really have a feel at all for how EFG is shaping up. just pleasantries so far
anyway, for how to deal with italy - I think if we can get him to damage austria, I'm happy to give him a couple centers, then we just take them back once austria is gone. anything to keep them from fully cooperating and stagnating things

Twinkletoes
agreed
though there will be only so much damage I can do as you will hold Tri

scooter
right. well I figure in the longer term, italy is my own problem much like germany and/or england is mostly yours. meaning we can help each other a little, but geography constrains that a little
but if we're successful, we should have a center advantage quickly

Twinkletoes
yeah

scooter
also, whatever I say to italy will change after S1901 if you're in black sea and I'm not
I think that's our best shot of managing italy

Twinkletoes
yeah
The BLA sea move is me and austria coming for you so you need Italy to distract AH

scooter
right. and if italy doesn't do that and I collapse, A and you get way too big too fast, and that scares italy.

Twinkletoes
yeah
especially as AH's build centres are much closer to him than yours would be

scooter
so perhaps closer to the deadline we can convince italy that we'd like to divide up AH with italy. he'll probably balk. then he'll see S1901 moves, I'll send bitter messages about you, wanting revenge, etc. and hopefully that'll convince him it's in his best interests to hit austria
right

Twinkletoes
sounds good to me

scooter
Ok. Well I'll tell you what. I've gotta head home from work now
I'm going to post this chat in my thread so gaspar can take a look and give any thoughts on the plan. You can think it over too. and if we're still on board with what's suggested, we aim to officialize it by email tomorrow?that would still give us about 24 hours before moves need to be sent in

Twinkletoes
okay - sounds good to me
cya then

scooter
okay great, thanks for chatting!

Gaspar, thoughts? My thought is basically I want to go ahead with this. If he burns us, he burns us, that's the game. If it's not him to burn us, it may have been someone else. But I do think he probably stands to gain a little more by this working succesfully, so there's some real motivation for him to try this. The alternative is he stabs, 3v1s us, and hopes he has a friend afterwards. Depends how lucky he's feeling.

[scooter]

Think I will ded lurk this thread if thats ok with you. Can't really offer much suggestions as I was useless in the game I played of this, but I agree I would be very wary of MJW and his unpredicability.

Somehow I missed this. Thanks, and fine by me! If you have any input to all this, I'd be happy to hear it too.

[regoarrarr]

Appreciate when you put the country with the power when you're posting press - it's still hard to figure out who's who

[Gaspar]

Honestly, I don't think we have a lot of options. I mean its worth working the phone lines with I but basically T's game is all about R, one way or another. Let's go for the alliance and figure out the rest later. I think it might be worth getting him to commit to a time to get rid of that fleet though - I just don't trust anything vague from R.