The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[Ruff_Hi]

Is there a place where I can see the latest info we have on each team? It sounds like there are now 4 teams with City #2 (and we aren't one of them).

[kjn]

Visit the C&D spread sheet (Google Docs).

I'm thinking we may need some way to keep info on each team - diplo agreements, intelligence that isn't from C&D, et c - but here I think those doing diplo will need to have input on how to set things up.

[Gold Ergo Sum]

It seems CivFr are playing very well. They have a size 2 second city working gold already?

[kjn]

Well, I had a sim that reached the same benchmark or better. However, the loss of our warrior on T11 meant we couldn't do something like that.

But yes, both the Germans and CivFr has executed their openings well.

[kjn]

T33 - 2680 BC

Cliff's Notes: Nothing. Nada. Ingenting. Zilch. Zip.

Not only was there no score changes on the interturn, there were no changes at all in any of the demos.

Makes me wonder why I bothered to log in...

[kjn]

Can we expect any team to settle a second city this turn?

A settler costs 100 foodhammers.

WPC grew to size 4 on T29. With 3 potential 6-strength tiles (corn, deer, cow) they will reach 17 foodhammers per turn, 18 with a mine. That gives a 6-turn settler from T29, ie they will probably have their first settler on T35.

The Spanish team is overdue. I had assumed they would have their first settler built on T30 or T31. If they haven't settled a city by this turn, I expect they will have chosen to build a second worker before their first settler.

Apolyton, the Germans, and Univers has all settled their second city recently.

CivFr is the team that settled their second city the longest time ago (T27), probably building their settler on T25. They have probably just finished a second worker in their capital right now, at 10 foodhammers per turn.

CivPlayers grew to size 5 on T28. They don't have AH yet, so are probably limited to 2 6-strength tiles, but have had time to finish two mines. That gives an estimate of 17 foodhammers per turn. They can build a settler next turn, T34.

CFC grew to size 5 on T27. They are limited to a single 6-strength tile. Assuming they've 3 4-strength tiles available that gives them 15 foodhammers per turn. They can build their settler next turn too, on T34.

Based on this, I have to say that the opening that makes the least sense is the Spanish one. They make a mad dash to BW and stop growth on T19 at size 2, but four teams has already managed to beat them to settling their second cities.

[kjn]

The teams in trouble

Sullla had earlier commented on the poor team still stuck at 10 food per turn. But how bad is it, and how could it be? Or are they in trouble?

A Troubled Team: Food

I'm going to assume that we have one team at 23F, one at 20, and one at 19. The lower bound of total food output is 136, the upper 143.

That leaves

136 - 23 - 20 - 19 -10 = 64

for four teams. Ie, the remaining four teams average 16 in food output, as a lower bound. When you're at turn 33 and the bottom half of the pack outproduces you in food with 50%, then you know you're in trouble.

However, all isn't bleakness! The only reasonable candidate for 10F at this stage is the Spanish team, since they're size 2, don't have a second city, and can't work their deer. What if they aren't working flood plains, but wet corn and a grass copper mine? That would give them 2 6-strength tiles, and they're probably building either a settler or a worker right now. Though I still wonder when they will build their second city...

A Troubled Team: GNP

Tile- and research-swapping indicates that there is a single team at 16 GNP, a single at 18, and the rest at 19-22.

Now, GNP can't be increased as easily as food and hammers early game, but it's quite easy to pick up an extra commerce or two by working riverside tiles, and as soon as you can work a discounted tech, then GNP rises to at least 18.

WPC is unlikely - they seems to use their lake as a source of extra commerce. Apolyton and the Germans has 2 cities and can build roads, so they are unlikely to be at 16. CivFr are creative and has their gold mine up, so it's definitely not them. CivPlayers just teched Wheel, so I think they're going on to Pottery. CFC has a bunch of flood plains to use, and are probably going on to BW right now. Univers has two cities, but can't build roads, which will lower their GNP unless both their cities are riverside.

So I think the two most likely possibilities for the trailing GNP are the Spanish and maybe Univers. By working a lakeside corn and a grass copper, while teching The Wheel, the Spanish fits both the GNP and the food metrics.

I expect them to finish The Wheel on T35 or T36, and then need 2t or 4t to connect the connection, depending on if they have two workers or not, and the exact positioning of the copper.

[kjn]

The above theory - that the Spanish team has copper in their capital BFC - could also explain why they are so late with their second city. They started a settler on T19 or T20, but then swapped over to a worker when the copper was revealed on T25.

[regoarrarr]

What turn did the Spanish settle? If we were going under the assumption that plako didn't put copper in anyone's BFC, what if they moved 2-3 tiles for their start?

[kjn]

They settled T0 and in place.