The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

T34 - 2640 BC

Cliff's Notes: CivFr researched Animal Husbandry, and the Spanish The Wheel. A bunch of warriors were built, and the Spanish are likely to have lost one.

Demos:

CivFr and the Spanish team both increased score with 6 points, a tech each. Total rival soldier score rose by 12000 total, top GNP fell, and top and average production rose.

The fall in top GNP is consistent with a CRE civ with 20 Cpt researching a double-discount tech (28 bpt) with two cities (ie 33 GNP) finishing their tech and dropping a single-discount tech. However, it might also be the Germans finishing their gold mine that is the new top GNP.

ETA: See my earlier post on the 33 GNP.

It was 16t since CivFr researched a tech (Hunting). Researching BW would require 13.5 bpt since then, but they have only had their gold online for two turns, and has had costs since T27. It also wouldn't fit with the old top GNP.

Researching AH however would only require 11.25 bpt. I guess they got 14bpt between T18 and T26, then ran 100% for four turns, and then ran 100% science for three turns.

The Spanish are also giving me trouble. The Wheel is the logical next tech for them after BW to hook up their copper. However, Wheel would also put them at 21000 power, meaning they had to have lost a warrior this turn as well. It also requires them to get 108 beakers in 9t, something which I had didn't think they were capable of.

However, by assuming a riverside corn for them, it's possible, if one expects a bit of overflow from BW on T25. My ETA for Impis is now on T36, with two tiles needing to be roaded.

Power

There must have been plenty of warrior builds this turn. The total power increase is 12000, of which 6000 is tech, but if the Spanish researched The Wheel they must also have lost a warrior, otherwise their power would be 21000, not 19000.

That leaves 4 warrior builds this turn. Any team can have built them except the Spanish and Univers.

[Cyneheard]

When I hear "4 warrior builds", my gut says BW was researched. I'd double check that BW is impossible.

[kjn]

Yeah, that was my first reaction as well.

Until I ran the numbers. Feel free to double-check things - it's too late for me to do it right now, and I'd like to have someone else to help out crunching numbers here.

Anyway, there are two tests needed for BW to work out:

1. That CivFr can reach 33 GNP with two cities, a gold mine, and researching a single-discount tech
   
2. That CivFr can generate 216 beakers in 16t (probably with running 2t with 100% gold)
   

On the other hand, the top GNP of T19-28 is "only" 21, which wouldn't fit with a CRE civ researching a double-discounted tech. So I'd like to get a sanity check and second opinion here.

[Sullla]

We don't know exactly what tiles these teams are working. It's admirable to try, but we can't estimate them with perfect precision. When I look at a tech that took a long time to research (16 turns), from a team that has Mining tech already, and the same turn saw a very large Power increase... well, it sure sounds like Bronze Working to me.

Look, if they get 10 base beakers/turn, they're making 13 beakers with the 1 freebie beaker and Mining pre-requisite bonus. 13 x 16 turns = 208 beakers. Bronze Working costs 216 beakers. Feels like Bronze Working to me. Could be something else, but BW makes way more sense than anything else I can see.

[kjn]

Ok, I realised I had been off in my earlier calculations for the top GNP.

33 = base_beakers * beaker_bonus + ep + cp - costs

ep is 4
cp isn't 4, but 6: 2 from each city for CRE, and 2 from the palace

Assuming costs are 3 for their new city:

33 = C * 1.2 + 4 + 6 - 3
26 = C * 1.2

That leaves 22 C (which includes the bonus beaker), which breaks down to the following:

9: gold mine (riverside)
8: palace
2: city tiles
1: riverside corn
1: riverside mine
1: bonus beaker

For a sum of 22 base beakers. BW also fits with the 21 top GNP from T19 onwards.

So CivFr researched Bronze Working.

That also has implications for the power numbers. CivFr must have lost a warrior before this turn, otherwise their power would be 20000. The Spanish must also have lost a warrior in the same way. So there are currently 2 unassigned warriors out there.

[kjn]

T35 - 2600 BC

Cliff's Notes: the second cities of the Germans and Univers are now size 2. Univers researched The Wheel. A team lost a warrior.

Demos:

The Germans increased score by 2, Univers increased score by 8, and a major increase of 5000 to the rival worst in power, which previously were Univers. However, the average power only rose 4000.

Working with the pop numbers tells us that total population increased with 10000, ie it is two cities increasing to size 2. That also gives an increase in power with 2000, 1000 for the Germans and Univers each.

With a power increase of 4000 for Univers and 10 turns since their last tech, it's almost certainly The Wheel.

Since population and tech rose with 6000 total, but the rival average only rose 4000, a team must have lost a warrior. The most likely candidates from my tracking are Apolyton and CivFr.

Modest increases in GNP, production, and food. Most notable is that the rival worst in GNP rose to 19 from 16, hinting that it was Univers that was trailing in GNP, and not the Spanish.

[Sullla]

Are you sure that they researched the Wheel? If there was 2k Power left over after accounting for pop increases, it's probably more likely that they simply researched a 2k Power tech, rather than UniversCiv researching Wheel and another team simultaneously losing a warrior. 10 turns to research Mining tech for a team that rushed a fast second city (at size 2 capital) sounds just about perfect to me.

I would guess that they did Mining tech (90 beakers) and not Wheel (108 beakers), personally. I don't like assuming that other teams had warriors killed in the fog to make the numbers fit.

[kjn]

If they researched Mining, then they must've built a warrior as well, since their power increased 5k, not 3k, so we'd have a warrior loss either way.

But yes, Mining does fit better if they were the team with 16 GNP.

[waterbat]

Yes, if min power increased at least 5k and average power only increased 250 (4000 total), there must have been come loss of power.

Did you assume there wasn't the possibility of a city growing to size 3 and a different city 1-pop whipping? This would also result in a 10k gain in pop total. This would be a loss of 1000 power (+5000 -1000 would fit) The f8 screen would betray this however as net pop points gained would be 0 instead of 2. Our % population would not compute correctly.

[kjn]

Whipping would've shown up on Civstats as a score decrease.

BTW - whenever we revolt to Slavery, we should maybe do so as late in the turn as possible. That way the teams that we don't have contact with can't see a team with 0 GNP.