[Spoilers] REM and AdrienIer's thread of football, spamming and blaming it on the mod

[AdrienIer]

Let's look at it this way, here's what we know :

I'm certain of them going hunting-BW, we found their sheep and pigs pastured when we got there. They have only 3k from pop because they didn't have time to grow to size 3 in his second city. Every thing else they might have built is a multiple of 2000, so 1 can be either sailing AH or wheel, in the case of the first 2 there's a warrior too. Then 2 can't be another tech so soon after that, it has to be a warrior. Two warriors means they were chopped from the cap. Then 3 would be a warrior from the second city with another one from the cap. So I'd say that he got scared of us (rightfully so) and got himself 3 warriors to defend himself going wheel then AH. If he gets his settler out sooner than us we won't be able to stop him from settling. And even if we get there before him 2 warriors against 3 it would be risky.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

Yeah it must be 2 warriors. I am just surprised of building a warrior in the new city is all.

Anyways the turn rolled, and we have the hindu holy city!




Relief. Borders pop nt. I moved the chap who put 1 turn of mining into the hill (should have labelled that sorry) to do a turn of chopping. The other 2 workers continued their roading. We can pull the closest back to complete the chop NT and get the workboat out.

Hunting is due in 6 turns, archery says 4 after but with the preresquite bonus I am hoping for 3, so 9 turns until we can build archers. We can safely assume that he will not be able to hook the bronze in time I think.

Now out east it is getting interesting...




Lets discuss their tech/soliders. They teched last turn and gained 2k soliders. Either another warrior and something or more likely animal husbandry. I have scanned their land with the mouse and squares that we know of don't have horses on. The only tile that might contain horses will be the riverside grassland 1E of their new settle. (obliviously assuming they teched AH)

This is rapidly gonna develop into a stalemate. Neither of us will be able to declare on the other as we will be teleported off the mega defensive forest hill tile... Note that GJ have played their turn this turn already. We are behind them in the turn order, but we will reach the forest hill 1 turn before them. But we cannot really declare on them as if we lose 1 warrior we will easily be picked off if we found the city. I am not sure what to suggest here. Also I am unsure how they got a promo fully healed warrior... We know they have no barracks, we have all their solider points accounted for.

Eot this turn we put some more hammers into the warrior. Then we chop the workboat to completion. We can overflow and get another war eot 2 turns later. This warrior could be on the tile turn 46 if we use 2 of the workers to road there.

We can put a settler on there turn 46 to settle turn 47 using our current road network, slaving the settler next turn.




There it is written out. However, if we use all 3 workers up there to road, we can get the settler there turn 45, to settle turn 46. I think this is worth it as as you said, there will be limited amounts that they can do currently.

If we follow this, then the 2 workers will finish the chop on the forest turn 41, with the other finishing the forest road. Then they waste a turn moving to that tile whilst the other moves onto the sheep to start roading turn 42. Turn 43 he finishes the sheep road whilst the next 2 then move to road the flatgrass. then 44 they road the flat plains and the settler can reach the hill turn 44. Can we win this settle race? I really do not know. Turn 45 is fairly good for a 2nd city I think, although I do know that with exp boosted it should be faster than base bts. At size 5 they can put 17fhpt into a settler, so a 6 turn settler. Looking back at their graphs we know that their cap built a warrior either turn 37 or 38. Let's be pessimistic and say 37. Then earliest the settler could be out is turn 43, less 1 turn per chop essentially, unless they decide to slave. With a full road network they would be able to get there turn 45, to settle turn 46. That would require roads on the grasshill, and corn, copper and the square 1E of the PH.

So that is being completely pessimistic. I think they actually built the warrior 38, which would give us a turn leeway. I also think that their road system will not be quite as sophisticated as ours so I think they will lose a turn there also. They could gain a turn chopping a forest, but if they do that then they definitely will not have a great road system to put the settler up there. So essentially I am saying that I am fairly confindent that we can win settling that spot. That warrior from MCG will be able to get there to help out in time also.

Saying that they have cleared 4 forests since turn 26. I assume at least one went into the first settler, and a second likely into a worker. I cannot see that more than 2 have gone into a 2nd settler, and I think likely only 1.

Thinking about it after I moved him, I think ronaldo should get up there too. All units will help, if he sits on a tile GJ cannot declare with him sat on that tile.

So essentially:
1) It will be close, but we should win it.
2) I think we should commit those 3 workers to get there a turn earlier.
3) The warriors should all be there
4) I think the scouts should both be up there too, for when it kicks off. It WILL kick off :P

The things I haven't moved are the 2 warriors. Still not quite sure how to play that. Simplest thing would be just to sit there with the 2 warriors. I think that is the safest if we assume that we can win the settle race. If you think we can't (depends how good their road system is, when they started the settler (?t38), and how many chops went into it)
We have 65%odds on the scout. If we win the first fight we would be safe there. If we lost the first to bad odds that warrior that could be shock upgraded will eat our units. It's just whether we want to risk it, which I think we shouldn't. We can protect everything by keeping one of the warriors (the one that needs to heal) on the grass hill. That would stop him moving there, and declaring thus creating a block to us getting a settler to that site. Depending on where he goes I can sim what a war dec would do to his unit movement, but as long as we keep 1 unit on each of those tiles then it should be back towards his cap.

Sorry for reams of text there, but put a fair bit of thought into that. It's quite late so anything that you are unsure of ask me. I think we should put the both of the warriors onto the grasshill, when you log in please do that if you agree.

EDIT lol look at civstats. That will show to GJ that something is up if nothing else... :P

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

Ugh. I wake up and realise I got my calcs wrong for getting a warrior out of mcg, as there won't be overflow hammers. But at the same time improve the micro (I think)

I think a third warrior in that time frame is important. To get the warrior out at eot next turn we need to work a 2/1/0 tile this turn, 1/2/0 tile next turn and then chop the turn after to get the workboat and work a 2/1/0 tile. Whilst we get the workboat marginally (1t) later, we get the warrior earlier. We are also more efficient with our worker turns, meaning we only need to commit 2 workers to get the settler to the site a turn quicker.

Do you want me to post a detailed micro plan proposal if you are happy with this? I'm on call in only for the next few days so should have some free time to do this.

[AdrienIer]

Well there's definitely a lot going on, overall I agree with you on prioritizing a warrior in MCG, beating him to the settle will be more important than a 1 turn earlier WB. Spending more than 30mn doing their turn means they're overanalyzing as much as we are

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

Shall I enter and do what I posted about? So warrior in 2 turns out of mcg, wb in 3 and settler to site turn 45?

And move both wars?

[AdrienIer]

Yeah.

Ok, I think we should declare next turn and attack his scout. If not he could be a huge pain by going to the grassland hill with his warrior after that and declare. Also I'm not sure how you intend to get a chop in MCG while at the same time using all the workers for roading. And didn't we say that Ronaldo should head back to help with the mess in the east ?
I've had an annoying idea, what if soldier counts had changed with the mod ? Barracks at 4k would explain a lot. And did you notice that GJ has a granary in his capital, no road to the sheep and cow and hasn't hooked up the corn ? That's odd don't you think ? His workers should be done with chopping now.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

Interesting point is that we will have tech visibility on them next turn hopefully! Will give us some idea of what they have too. I put numbers on the tiles as to where the units will be but my screenshot didn't take sorry. I don't want to jump in just for that screenshot. It can wait until next turn.

I don't think they would have modded in solider count changes. EDIT yes they did! Good thinking there. I just tested it, but barracks has gone to 2k not 4k it seems. Just tried it a few times. Makes much more sense as a first build in that new city. It will be tight, but even if he has that tile preroaded, and instant whips an axe in that front city we should be able to get an archer up in the new city before anything else.

Are you 100% sure that he has a granary in the cap? There is no need to push the war declaration if that is the case. 60 hammers into a granary means that he cannot have put that many chops. I just went in and can't see one though. Also I am pretty sure they cannot have pottery yet as after the wheel they will not have had time to hit the wheel and an hus last turn like we think they did. I don't it is too odd he hasn't roaded the sheep/pig. They don't need the health atm.

So what we can assume now is that they have built a barracks in their newest city, and a warrior actually out of there which would explain the promo. That would explain 4k of the soliders. Going on the graph that you posted above, we have 6k to attribute to other stuff, one set of 4k which was at the time of a tech. That 4k HAS to be the wheel. It would be crazy to delay that any longer and if he has then his settler will take a long time to reach there. Then there would be another 2k for a warrior somewhere (we know the cap doesnt have a barracks. So I think he has 2 warriors, the one we can see and the one that would need to be MP in his cap. To get the barracks out that quick in his second city he would have needed to divert one of the chops to there. That leaves 2 capital chops unaccounted for. Given that he has a mine on the hill tile and 3 more forests chopped since, he has to have gone another worker since the settler (the 1 worker could not have chopped that much), plus a warrior. I cannot see him being able to get a settler to that site before we can, I just can't. He physically cannot get enough production into builds and chops and have enough worker turns left to road to speed the settler movement there. We are helped by the geography there as to help their settler movement they have to road the grasshill.

Therefore with the declaration - I really don't think we should. He has an agg warrior with a promo able to hit the turn after. Odds will drop with the fort bonus next turn, to a 50 -50 (5% plus 20% woodland and the 75% hill/woods bonus) If our full health no promo warrior hits and dies, then our 1.4 health combat 1 warrior we have to kill and withstand a hit by his warrior. I know that we have a scout too to sit on the tile, but as we cannot reinforce with a warrior he is of limited value. I think we will honestly lose the combats overall. Even if we win the first then we would be rather badly hurt, and a 1.4 plus 85% I don't think would have great odds on defending vs a shock warrior. And that is assuming we win the dice roll combat first. We can counter him moving to the grasshill and declaring by either keeping the damaged warrior on it or moving the scout onto it. My preference would be to keep the damaged warrior on it.

Basically it comes down to - as long as we think we can win the settler race, declaring war is a very bad move. If we don't think we can win the settler race, I think declaring is the right move, as we will have a 50%ish chance of holding the spot. Read over my analysis above and see if you agree with the above... If you think we cannot win a settle race I am all for declaring war.

For micro:
So basically the worker on the plains forest and chops it this turn and next turn. He is then free to go back and finish the caps mine and then road to the western site for either the silver/copper city.
The worker who is roading the forest 2NE of MCG finishes the road, and with the other roads slowly but surely towards the new site. We need to be careful to complete the previous road before moving the workers so we get the most value out of the worker turns.
MCG works a 1/2/0 tile next turn, and after a 2/1/0 and then whatever.
EA slaves next turn.

[AdrienIer]

Ok the barracks makes sense. You're probably right about the rest, I didn't think about the fortify bonus.

Edit : you're right they just got the wheel and didn't pop a tech since then (that was my reasoning at first) so no pottery. I don't know what the round building in the middle of their cap is then.

[ReallyEvilMuffin]

I dunno what you're looking at but nothing looked granary like to me! I'm confused mnow though - are we in a turn split or not? I kinda wanna play the turn before sleep this evening and can't stay up late tonight. If we are not going to attack then as he has no units that could attack us I guess not? The rules about these things confused me... Shall I message someone who might know who is online?

Edit TBS isnt on but krill is, sha;; I ask him?

[AdrienIer]

Yeah sure. I was in a kind of turnsplit mind but if the turn has rolled I'd rather play it now as well.