Catwalk Wrote:I think both are good bets, but I'd rather go by post content than voting. It's reasonable to argue that several players are put off by the voting system and display.... erratic behaviour I might be crazy for defending your vote yesterday, it was so amazingly anti-town.
Here's the thing though Sareln posted Content. He posted a list of everyone and he posted a short description of how he ranked them with vague reasoning behind where they were. He actually went ahead and made a ranking but never followed through on that ranking. He also barely bit on my attempt to get his goat. I felt like he was really holding back because he didn't want to post too much and draw too much attention to himself. At that point I felt pretty confident that he was scum and I knew he would be on my list for today.
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
That's the impression I got of Sareln too, but it leads me to the opposite conclusion. Not that he's innocent, but that he's less suspicious than Erebus. I'll try digging through both of them to see if anything sticks out.
Oh and I've sobered up a bit since earlier. It 3:30 AM here which is about 5-6 hours from when I started posting from when I got home from dinner and drinks. My head hurts, but I'm fairly clear at this point.
As for the vote. Nothing more I can say. You say some might be put off by the voting system, well I'm one of them. I just got all flustered and killed Bob. I wasn't even thinking about him defending himself. The thought never even occurred to me because I suddenly felt like I had to vote or people would move off of Bob and the day would never end. Adrenaline does crazy things to your head...
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Sareln defending himself early on, and offering attempts at analysis:
[COLOR="Red"]Quote:
Originally Posted by Catwalk
Sareln was also not very active last game, where he turned out to be innocent. I don't think he'd sign up for another game right away if his activity was still low, so I'm inclined to think his silence is indicative of lazy scum behaviour. Erebus also stands out as slightly less active, the rest are pretty consistent.[/COLOR]
Horrid reasoning. I sign up for werewolf games because I like to play in them, but just because I'm not going to dump 10 hrs / day into a game doesn't make me SCUM.
Now to the rest of the posts:
@ Novice: I figured defense would be straightforward due to an ability, but now that I see how many other people have abilities that's probably not true anymore
Agree w/ the analysis that having <heal> is no indicator of innocence or SCUM. I don't agree with the idea that it somehow disassociates Rowain and Novice completely though, there is a case where they could both be SCUM just much less likely than unpaired or inverted-paired alignments.
@ Uberfish: for vote 5/6: Wanted to see what sort of response I'd get at 5/6 from Winston and felt comfortable having an ace for defense, so a mistake wouldn't be the end of the world. Serdoa spoiled the whole thing by lynching Winston pretty much the minute after I placed my vote...
I'm not going to let fear prevent me from voting 4th or 5th today though, else we'll be trying to kill everyone with half-vigilante actions...
Novice's power is cool.
@ Catwalk: Novice wouldn't make the claim w/out it being true. It would be a terribly easy way to get lynched by a competing claim from a villager (50/50 on day 1, or maybe two half-vigilantes get nervous and kill someone in that pair; either way much worse odds for novice than just playing honest.)
Of players remaining, ranking from most innocent -> least innocent with thoughts where appropriate:
Rowain, Heal could go to anyone, making sense
Novice, making sense
Uberfish, Good questions, Making sense.
Lewwyn, Gray Middle Ground
Erebus, Gray Middle Ground
Serdoa, Rifle shot on Day 1 right after I posted my vote to kill Winston. Seems almost too blatant to be a SCUM tell.
Bobchillingworth, first game for me with Bob. Seems quiet. I don't have a good read on him.
Catwalk, more bellicose than last game IMO, has been pursuing power roles with the same... vigor that he did in WW7. Reasoning isn't particularly convincing to me, but that may be a cultural gap.
Quote:
Quote:Originally Posted by Catwalk
I've posted my defense, so feel free to have a swing I think Rowain's post was making fun of Serdoa, I still think Serdoa is mildly suspicious for the fake-edit.
Thanks, that's what I was looking for.
I'd like to hear more from Lewwyn as well, but he's asleep right now.
Let's go back to my list (with reordered suspicions):
Novice, making sense.
Rowain, Heal could go to anyone, making sense. Pushes aggressively to see votes for people. Not sure that's wise given the game-rules.
Uberfish, Good questions, Making sense.
Bobchillingworth, first game for me with Bob. Seems quiet. I don't have a good read on him.
Serdoa, Rifle shot on Day 1 right after I posted my vote to kill Winston. Seems almost too blatant to be a SCUM tell.
Catwalk, more likely to be innocent, explanation of play so far makes sense to me.
Lewwyn, Gray Middle Ground, Sleeping
Erebus, Not sure about jumping onto "Fake Edits" as a tell, seems a weak one. Especially given how I view Serdoa and Rowain.
Erebus, why is the fake-edit a tell? It seems good practice to me to hit the "Preview Post" button and see what others have posted while writing. I assume "Fake Edits" are just how Rowain and Serdoa tack on more responses to their posts, rather than rewriting the whole flow to take the new information into account.
Explaining his voting and defending himself from Lewwyn aggression (I think this makes you look bad, btw):
Quote:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewwyn
Really starting to piss me the eff off. How many people think we should just get rid of Sareln if he's gonna be such an ass about not voting like this? I WILL EAT YOUR FACE!
It didn't go to 4-4 until after I was asleep in bed. I didn't cast a vote for Catwalk because he had adequately acquitted himself for the time being in my eyes. I don't want to leave a vote hanging out there in the middle of the night with me as unsure as I was. Make sense?
This doesn't scream wolf to me. If anything, it suggests that Erebus is scum along with you and you're trying to have us hang Sareln first as that's enough for a scum victory, trying to gain credibility by also casting suspicion on Erebus as that won't matter if we mislynch.
Btw keep in mind that scum can win with one wrong vote if they log on and join it. On that note, I'm going to switch to NO VOTE. I suggest everybody else does the same until we've agreed on someone to hang.
I'm not unwilling to lynch Erebus. I think Sareln is more suspicious.
I disagree it makes me look bad since I was trying to provoke him. His defense here came after the lynch as well. MOST of his 11! posts come after lynches. Posts in which he doesn't have to do too much talking.
Simply put Sareln in this game reminds me distinctly of GES during WW3. (Who was a wolf and they ended up winning).
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
Catwalk Wrote:Btw keep in mind that scum can win with one wrong vote if they log on and join it. On that note, I'm going to switch to NO VOTE. I suggest everybody else does the same until we've agreed on someone to hang.
I doubt that we have 3 SCUM. That would only give us 2 wrong lynches and would be seriously unbalanced. I'm far more inclined to believe that we have 2 SCUMs and one possessed (ne Lewwyn) else his paswed 24 hours of idiocity would make little sense. But perhaps Sareln & Erebus who should both be awake and available have something to add.
Or are there any other bad cicumstances that prevent you 2 from posting? (more than 24 hours for both of them since their last post.)
I have to go to bed, my wife just informed me it's my lucky night. I'll try to do a similar review of Erebus tomorrow. I urge everyone to not vote until we're certain who we want to kill.
Ok in regard to Catwalk's claim we have the following known or claimed protective abilities:
Serdoa: protect target but wounds self (known)
Catwalk: protect target but target gets wounded (claimed)
Novice: protect self and gets wounded (claimed)
Seems to make sense as a set if the claims are true. I guess if Catwalk was scum he could have made up the part about the wound after seeing Serdoa's flip, as he only claimed to be a generic "one shot baner" during twilight. However, I still think he's more likely to be village. I don't see why he would defend Lewwyn if he was scum either.
I think Lewwyn could still easily be scum trying to hide in plain sight while killing Bob to stop him using his unknown ability. These games have a history of crazy villager stunts after all.
I propose that Sareln and Erebus should vote first today, so they can't hide behind existing bandwagons.
uberfish Wrote:I propose that Sareln and Erebus should vote first today, so they can't hide behind existing bandwagons.
Excellent suggestion. I have no read on uberfish, based on style. But I think uberfish has made a lot of sense in this game. If he were scum I think he'd need a bit of luck to be able to avoid having to resort to nonsense, so I'm leaning towards uber being innocent.
I was thinking about the game the past few hours, and when I returned to the forums I see that Catwalk and Lewwyn have pretty much summed up my impressions. That's encouraging.
My top suspects at the moment are Rowain, Erebus and Sareln, in some order. Then Lewwyn and Uberfish. Catwalk seems innocent.
I tend to agree with Catwalk that Sareln's content posts make him less and not more suspicious.
I might be crazy for defending your vote yesterday, it was so amazingly anti-town.
