Brexit Political Discussion Thread

[Jowy]

Initially I felt bad for the Brits because I thought the Leave voters were lied to and manipulated into something that they didn't really want, but with Tories winning the last GE mid-Brexit and putting up great numbers in polling post-Brexit, I think this actually just is what the Brits want. Enjoy the ride, I guess.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Initially I felt bad for the Brits because I thought the Leave voters were lied to and manipulated into something that they didn't really want, but with Tories winning the last GE mid-Brexit and putting up great numbers in polling post-Brexit, I think this actually just is what the Brits want. Enjoy the ride, I guess.

Tories only got 44% of the vote last GE. They only win because Labour refuses to go for PR because they don't want to be the B-team (Lib Dems would be the A-team because their seats are the ones that get you to 50%+1). The left's vote share was also reduced by infighting and Tories also picked up votes when Labour got dragged to left by the lib dems; explicit second referendum policy. So under PR the right would only get ~40% of the vote.

[MJW (ya that one)]

LOL Hartlepool got 1 cented on PredictIt before the results



I don't think the "wait" plan is working. Labour should just give up and let Lib Dems win by going for PR. They won't because they're dumb. BJ has Americanized UK poltics. He's much better than Trump (who only won because everyone and their mother entered the race because Clinton was so weak; splitting the anti-Trump vote six ways to Sunday), only has to face a 4th of the minority vote and a much more favorable electoral system (open primaries that drag GOP to the right which drops suburban vote to DEMs and gives the a free pass on their left flak; so no big third parties+ much larger districts so they cannot take full advantage of their geographic advantage). Trump came close to winning so Labour just loses.

I like how people thought that Keir destroying Johnson in PMQs would make a difference. It did but Labour is in such a hole that Tories win anyway. “Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before the defeat” Sun Tzu. I don't need to persuade people that BJ is poor at tactics but Keir is bad at strategy for not going for PR. Strategy>Tactics

Giving up is very painful but Labour is just dumb here because it's now obvious they have no chance against the Tories. Be the B-Team!

[MJW (ya that one)]

LOL Labour MP conceded before the results

Keir Starmer

[MJW (ya that one)]

28.7 % !

[MJW (ya that one)]

Labour has yet to win a single constituency seat in Scotland. I would argue that Labour's collapse, and therefore Scottish Independence was inevitable as soon as Holyrood went up because Labour would never grant them real problems (ie veto). This is because England would demand a parliament of their own with a veto and the rest of the UK would not be able to put any pressure on them because their 89% of the UK (for reference CA is only 12% of USA) so Labour would have to win England to do anything. Now, NI & Wales aren't too bad because SF doesn't take their seats but dropping Scotland kills them. Tories won a lot of seats but only do to vote splitting, only getting over 50% in one so in a competitive election they should get ~4. So that's 50 extra seats they have to win if England gets a veto.   

So if they never intended to give Holyrood real power why did Labour do it? GFA. If Scotland and Wales didn't have a parliament it would become obvious that NI is just a vassal state of the rest of the UK. Now there's many solutions but only one matters: PR. You have to go for PR anyway and it would allow you to shut out SNP like Canada does to BQ. You would still lose seats to SNP but it wouldn't be a disaster because they wouldn't be able to force you to make more and more concessions until Scotland quits or England demands a veto. Labour didn't do this because they thought they could get away not delivering forever. Like a guy who lives in his parent's basement who thinks he can get away with not getting a job because he thinks he can keep his parents from kicking him out forever. I remember some guy in NY who stalled for 20 years but like Labour, even through it takes forever, getting kicked out will happen. 

[MJW (ya that one)]

Labour has just won Edinburgh Southern due to tactical voting.

[MJW (ya that one)]

Well it looks like SNP falls one seat sort because they messed up the count in Dumbarton.

[MJW (ya that one)]

BBC/PredictIt calls 63/64. The seats that Labour held, due to massive Tory tactical voting, blocked the SNP. Tactical voting was it because SNP got more votes than they in 2011 (47% vs 44%)

[MJW (ya that one)]

Batley and Spen. Lean Labour. This was Jo Cox's seat, so I'm counting on the sympathy vote and lower turnout.