[SPOILERS] Dazed and scooter play Stalin of Vikings and make a big mess

[dazedroyalty]

RNG was not with us. Lost the 85% battle with the axe. Sadface. Will not end turn until we've discussed plans.

[dazedroyalty]

Brick's gonna get at least 4XP out of that. Warrior is still next to city atm. I moved the spear up so that we have some kind of military moving towards are undefended front city. I think we have to build another axe now.

[dazedroyalty]

Brick ignored the peace offer. Attacked our Shock Warrior at 22% odds and won, then offered a Cease Fire. I took it, of course. We have no military. We need to build an axe in Baskervilles ASAP just for defense. I'm still in favor of not going to war with Brick now.

We've made lots of risky moves that have paid off. This one, though, has blown up in our face.

[scooter]

Brutal. Yep, for those scoring at home, we just lost battles of 85% and 78% consecutively. Really unfun.

Dazed, I'm definitely in favor of what we discussed earlier via chat - try to make things peaceful for quite awhile and go the economic route. I particularly like the sneaky bulb possibilities.

[dazedroyalty]

Someone with better math skills, what were the odds of losing both of those?

Scooter, I agree as well. I'm pretty firmly against using the Great Engineer (if we get one) for the Colossus. I'm not in favor of a Shrine if we get a Great Prophet. A merchant later would be a great bulb.

[Zed-F]

The odds of two separate unrelated events happening without aprioi knowledge of the result of either is the odds of each event multiplied together. So a 15% to lose the first and a 22% to lose the second would be 0.15*0.22 = 0.033, or just over 3% chance of losing both.

I suspect that's the figure you were looking for. However, these two events are not entirely unrelated, so it's not necessarily the best answer.

[dazedroyalty]

Thanks, Zed. I knew the formula for basic odds like that but I'm super hazy on how odds work when events are not dependent on one another or more complex. Basically, tho, it was super unlikely.

[scooter]

Scooter, I agree as well. I'm pretty firmly against using the Great Engineer (if we get one) for the Colossus. I'm not in favor of a Shrine if we get a Great Prophet. A merchant later would be a great bulb.

Very much agree on Colossus - we can build that super easily with copper + IND + Forge... using GE on that seems wasteful. Actually, when we build a Forge we should probably whip and dump overflow into Colossus.

I still don't think a shrine is the worst thing ever, but settling the prophet when you get it THIS early is still pretty decent - especially since we could REALLY use the hammers. Plus it'll be Rep-enhanced, so it's 2 hammers, 5 gold, and 3 beakers. So yeah, if we get Prophet first, we can settle it. If we get Engineer, rush GLH if it's available, otherwise we can save it for a bulb, MoM, or Glib. Lots of options there.

For our SECOND great person, that's pretty likely going to be a merchant (Colossus) or Engineer. And we can get it rather quickly. There will be a chance at a prophet (at that point I'd be slightly more inclined to shrine), but we can run an engineer out of the forge to help our odds. So yeah, for our second person, if we get a merchant/engineer, we can do some fun things with bulbs. Anyone care to guess what we're thinking here? Shouldn't be too hard to figure out. It involves blood.

[scooter]

Also, I fully expect to get 2 prophets as our great people given our current string of luck.

[dazedroyalty]

Well, sorry we have been slow to update this thread the last 3 days. Scooter and I have been discussing the game and I even sent him some screenshots but never posted them here. Don't worry, Scooter is almost done with school and once he can log into the pitboss himself, updates will surely be more regular.

Anyways, turn 74:

Overview:



You'll note that we were in a faceoff with Brick/Mist:



But no worries, our spear scared him off. So on 75, this is the situation:



I kinda think Brick doesn't have copper hooked up. I really wish we hadn't lost that Axe!

I decided to take a picture of Brick's capital so we can try to observe better when he chops his forests:



Scarlet is banging out a forge real quick:



SoF is working on a granary. We shouldn't even consider whipping until it's down to 1-pop whip range.



Scooter, I would like your input on Baskervilles. We just whipped the granary and I feel like we had a plan of what we were gonna build next, but I can't remember at the moment. Forge is placeholder:



Finally, our demos:



Food is the only one that worries me. Though our soldier rating is ridiculous!

I have the WB we build in SoF heading out for scouting purposes and I thought I had a screenshot of it, but I guess not. It hasn't gotten to a place where it's uncovering anything new yet though so there's nothing helpful to see really.