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[SPOILERS] Magic Science and Mr. Cairo in Pitboss 40

Turn 232 – 1610 AD
I logged in to find Aquaman’s garrison the same as I had left it, so I sounded the attack, sent in the brave Incan marines, and…

   
Yeah, combat luck was NOT atrocious, and they took it without complications. smile jive An entire galleon of muskets died before a single one of the defenders did, but that was to be expected, and they did enough damage in their fights for the next few attackers to capture the city with only one more casualty. In total, I lost 3 musketmen and one swordsman in the battle. That left me with only four swordsmen and three musketmen for offensive units in the area, most of them badly wounded, which means that my city-capturing offensive is out of steam for now. However, Superdeath moved riflemen to all of his remaining coastal cities on his half of the turn, so there would not have been more city captures anyway.

Holding and developing Aquaman will be a very interesting task. Superdeath’s rifles and cuirassiers would stand a good chance of taking the city back if I ever let them launch a large assault against it, so the Incan Navy will need to maintain a strong presence in the area at all times to block galleys. The two key tiles are the ones to the immediate north and northeast of Shazam, since those are the ones that MarvelDC galleys would need to pass through to reach Aquaman in one turn, and if they take more than one turn, then I can easily sink them. In regards to the city’s development, the main problem is how culturally swamped it is, which I hadn’t really considered before. It has so few tiles that mass starvation will start as soon as the revolt is over, so massive whipping will start immediately, probably for culture buildings. At least I got a very good infrastructure haul of a terrace, a lighthouse, a market, and a courthouse.

Now for those sneaky plans I mentioned. mischief

   
But first a quick recap of what has been happening in the chaotic mainland war, because it is relevant to my plans and it has been interesting to observe from afar. I definitely appreciate the distance, though. It’s good for my health. wink

After my last report of what was happening, a few more cities were captured, some were burnt (including Sidon cry), and I’m sure that many more units must have been slaughtered, but all three civilizations were building new troops so fast that their power graphs barely even ticked downward. Then shallow_ru signed a peace treaty with Superdeath. I briefly thought that this meant the current round of wars was coming to an end, but Superdeath proved me wrong last turn when he declared war on his erstwhile ally Elkad, and the Orphans kept up their offensive as well. Under this pressure, Elkad has already lost… six cities, I think. His score has diminished more than 700 points from what it was ten turns ago, and he felt desperate enough to switch into slavery and start whipping a lot. I feel confident predicting that he is out of the running for victory now, and if things continue at the current rate, then the problem of how to get to third place may take care of itself. Probably not, though, since you can see that the Orphans have made peace, which brings us to the present situation.

Whew.

   
The first new idea I have been thinking about is called “Operation Commodore” for reasons that will soon become obvious.

As I mentioned before, Superdeath has bolstered all of his coastal garrisons with riflemen. Killing one of those amphibiously will take about 4 or 5 musketmen, and then there are the units underneath them, and it gets to the point where my five galleons aren’t enough to hold all of the musketmen who would need die for another attack to work. The inland cities probably have less defenders, but since my units can’t land and attack in one turn, they would be wiped out by cuirassiers, and since Superdeath would get a turn of warning, the threatened city would have its garrison bolstered anyway. Too bad there isn’t a way to land and then attack in one turn… Except there is!

If you land a unit and then give it the Morale promotion, then it can use the movement point from Morale on that same turn! This can extend my threat range for surprise attacks one tile inland, which is just enough to reach Wonder Woman. Last time I checked, which was only three turns ago, Wonder Woman had one axeman for defense. A well-promoted musketman would have about a 65% chance of winning that fight, which I think it good enough to at least try setting this up. Next turn, one of my galleons sails west to pick up Gustavus Adolphus II from Kabul.

   
The second idea doesn’t have a name yet.

Historically, Elkad has maintained a sturdy defense of White bear. The city has culture, walls, and a castle, all boosted by Chichen-Itza, and its defenders were three well-promoted longbowmen and a musketman. However, it is becoming more vulnerable now. A longbowman and the musketman just left to help defend the mainland, and I am almost to frigates to bombard tile defenses from the sea. Therefore, I am considering an effort to capture the city.

I don’t have every detail of the plan figured out yet, but I have a general idea of what to do, which I will explain better as it becomes more refined and the time to attack draws nearer. Look to see the city fall around Turn 240 if things work as I hope they do.
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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233-235
   
Elkad has now removed all of the garrison units from White bear, so I am accelerating my plan to capture the city. Well, actually I had already decided to speed it up last turn, when there was only a pikeman left in the city, but it’s nice that the defenses are even weaker now. We attack on Turn 238. That means striking with little or no bombardment by frigates, but it’s enough time to deliver the full contingent of six musketmen and three swordsmen, which will probably be overkill even with the tile defenses completely intact. Based on the pattern of whipping and unit transportation that my caravel has observed over the past few turns, I do not anticipate facing a garrison more formidable than about two longbowmen unless Elkad gets worried about the city’s safety sooner than his last turn before I attack.

   
I have been trying to disguise my hostile actions as things other than what they really are. These two galleons’ true purpose is to transport units for the attack, but I am moving them through Superdeath’s waters and burning some fishing boats along the way in an attempt to convince Elkad they are sailing west only for the purpose of bothering and threatening Superdeath. They won’t do anything that should appear very suspicious to Elkad until the last turn before the attack, by which time it should be too late.

Accelerating the plan like this means that Operation Commodore must be delayed, because the galleon that was supposed to retrieve the Great General is instead needed to maintain the blockade keeping Aquaman safe. I think that should be alright. If Superdeath is unaware of the Morale trick and thinks that Wonder Woman is a safe backline city, then what reason does he have to move more units into it at any point? Besides, delaying might give me the opportunity to bring over the second Great General for redundancy, or to build and use a knight instead of a musket, if I can beg some horses off of the Orphans. I should see if I can do that.

   
While I have been plotting against Elkad at sea, he has been doing very well on the mainland. He has taken back all five cities he lost to Superdeath: Portu, Munsalvesche, Pits (I finally understand how it got its name), Schilda, and Oasis2. He has scared Superdeath into eating a turn of anarchy to adopt Nationhood. The forces of injustice are in full retreat, but it remains to be seen if Elkad will press the counterattack or make peace. I think there is a decent chance of him staying at war. He already knows I am fighting Superdeath with him, and, more importantly, I think that shallow_ru is about to join us. jive

A turn ago they offered me iron for iron, they have an iron for iron deal with Elkad as well, and they are sending him resources too. shallow_ru has a huge army of two movers on the border with Superdeath, and their garrisons over there are much bigger than those on their border with Elkad. Perhaps part of that is because the enforced peace with Superdeath ends before the one with Elkad, but neither lasts that much longer, and the distance between the two sides of their empire is pretty large.

There is also this:
   
One, they already have open borders again. Two, what is that stack of units doing? Could it be getting ready to surprise attack the Injustice League from inside Elkad’s land? I hope so, and I’m not sure what else it could be doing. Overall, I think that the chances of the situation being all three of us against Superdeath before too long are fairly good.

In light of my hope that Superdeath gets completely dogpiled, my plan to capture White bear may seem odd. However, I have considered it, and it still makes sense to me. Capturing White bear will strengthen my civilization, so that’s good for me, and the negative consequences should be limited. If Elkad tries to bother me militarily with his caravels in revenge, then my new shiny frigate fleet can earn some promotions. lol Also, the attack won’t kill many of his units or hurt his ability to make more very much, and that’s what I want him to do for me. Why should I care about his economy? lol I intend to offer a peace treaty immediately to avoid him giving up the fight against Superdeath due to fear of coastal attacks, and even if it takes a turn or two for Elkad to accept, we should be done with our skirmish before the treaty with the Orphans expires, so they won’t be motivated to target Elkad instead of Superdeath out of belief that I will help them with the effort.

If all goes perfectly, in four turns I will have White bear in my possession and the world will be united in a war against Superdeath. smile

please
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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Turns 236 to 241 – 1630 to 1655 AD
   
By Turn 238, everything was going according to plan. Elkad apparently suspected nothing, since his caravel fleet was still off harassing Superdeath as it had been for the past few turns. That left only a galley in the waters around White bear and a musketman as the city’s lone defender. Against that, I had my single caravel, 3 galleons (carrying 6 muskets and 3 swords in total), and 2 frigates. Victory was certain, but that City Garrison II musketman promised to make it costly: the expected outcome was for three Incan muskets to die before the last one would get a good chance to win.

The first suicidal attacker was sent in with a 0.1% chance of victory. He inflicted a slightly above average amount of damage and died.
Then the next suicidal attacker was sent in, and…

   
…this guy evidently didn’t get the memo that he was only a suicide attacker. The second musketman captured the city with only a 4.7% chance of victory! This amazing result saved two muskets to fight another day.

Unfortunately, it also contributes to my feeling of idiocy about the order I moved my units to attack. smoke You see, Canoel only had one axeman defending it this turn, which could have been easily defeated by three muskets. However, I chose to attack White bear with the three muskets from the western galleon, the one that could have reached Canoel, before using the troops from the eastern galleons, the ones that could only reach White bear. That meant that when I scouted Canoel’s garrison with the caravel, I found it vulnerable, but all of the troops that were luckily still alive thanks to that 4.7% chance victory were too far away. banghead Then Elkad moved approximately twenty-seven defenders into the city next turn, and the opportunity was gone.

At least I didn’t do anything similarly stupid in the other region of the war, not that there was much that could go wrong there. All there was to do was win frigate vs. caravel battles at 9999:1 odds of victory and position my ships so that as few caravels as possible could run back inside a friendly port in time. Only two of the original fleet of six made it back to Portu alive.

Before the attack:
   

After the attack:
   
Two more caravels were finished off the next turn, one by a frigate offscreen to the west. You can also see a galleon delivering reinforcement defenders to Aquaman at this point.

   
One unanticipated negative side-effect of the attack on Elkad was that it tanked my economy (note the state of the slider) and my cities’ happiness and health. For a while, all of those things have been dependent on foreign trade routes and gifted resources. I had accounted for losing Elkad’s contribution by begging for free stuff from the Orphans instead. However, I had not accounted for losing access to them as well, which did occur when war was declared because Elkad’s culture blocked the trade route to shallow_ru’s only north ocean city, Cuzco. Whoops. I started on a few quechuas to tide my cities over until I could find a trade connection again.
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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One way to resume trade is to obtain peace with Superdeath, which I did. I sent this deal on Turn 239 and found peace and an open borders offer waiting for me on my part of Turn 240.

I know that this is a full reversal of what I said I wanted just last report, but last report was a week ago now, and I have thought more about the situation since then. Superdeath was granted a cease fire for a better reason than so I could trade with the Orphans again.

He was granted peace because Elkad is a better target if I want to achieve my stated goal of elevating the Incan League to third place before the game’s end. Elkad is in a far weaker spot right now. His Crop Yield is 3rd, his GNP is 3rd, his MFG is 3rd by a long way, his power is 3rd by a significant amount, his city count is several below Superdeath’s, I think you get the idea. Also, Superdeath has Rifling and Nationalism while Elkad seems distant from both. Put together, those things mean that Elkad is more likely to lose badly enough in a dogpile that I get promoted.

The politics of concession were also a factor in sending the cease fire offer. I need the game to last at least until I reach my goal, and that means I need at least one of Elkad and Superdeath to have hope that they can beat the Orphans for a little while longer. Since Elkad is probably out of contention for victory now, that means that Superdeath needs to not give up yet. If Superdeath is dogpiled and starts losing many cities, I expect that he will concede and the game will end, and I think that the concession threshold will be crossed before he loses enough points. This also indicates Elkad as the better choice for me to harass and hope for a dogpile against, so that’s the new plan.

   
With that decided, I declined peace with Elkad and moved in to cause him more problems. I expected, of course, that they would not be problems of the city-capturing sort, because I can’t manage that without the element of surprise. However, for some reason Elkad failed to reinforce Sofia like he did all of his other coastal cities on the first turn after my attack. And then the axeman still had no friends on the second turn after my attack.

My galleons were in position to reach the city by Turn 241, the third turn after the start of the attack, so I thought that Elkad would now finally move a few more garrison units into the city.

   
But he didn’t, and I liberated the city with another lucky suicide attacker, this one with a 28.7% chance of victory. Welcome back Sofia. It’s good to see you again. smile Of course, I won’t hold the city long, probably not even until my next turn. Still, I think that it is worth the unit cost. It hurts the development of the city, it lets the Orphans and Superdeath know that this war is still a real one, and I believe that it should clear away Elkad's culture blocking my coastal access to Cuzco, just in case that becomes relevant again.
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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Did you have any frigates nearby to bomb down the defenses of White Bear? It seems like that would have improved your odds.
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You are right that bombarding the defenses would have improved my odds. A complete bombardment down to 0% would have lowered my expected losses from 3 to 2 muskets. However, I had only just finished Chemistry on Turn 235, so only two frigates were close enough to White bear on the turn of the attack. Waiting for more would not have been a good idea, since in the few turns my other four frigates needed to get there, Elkad could have whipped another unit to completion in the city, and one more quality unit would have increased my expected losses by more than one musketman for sure.
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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Could we get a domestic picture? Those super-islands are punching well above weight class I see.

Expedition to capture a south Elkad city and control the Antarctic as well?
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An Antarctic expedition would truely be magical. wink
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Pitboss: PB39, PB40PB52, PB59 Useful Collections: Pickmethods, Mapmaking, Curious Civplayer

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(January 31st, 2019, 11:34)Commodore Wrote: Could we get a domestic picture? Those super-islands are punching well above weight class I see.
Sure, have a domestic screenshot dump from the latest turn.

Demographics:
   
City Screen:
   
Satellite View:
   
Financial Advisor:
   
If there are any other screens you want to see, let me know.


(January 31st, 2019, 11:34)Commodore Wrote: Expedition to capture a south Elkad city and control the Antarctic as well?
I wish! That would be so much fun. No one would be safe from my reign of terror! pirate I’ll have you know that it hurts me inside to see the Orphans’ core coastal cities guarded by lone warriors and spearmen. I want to burn those things down so much. rant To bad whatever jerk built this map didn’t decide to include a canal spot. mischief Think of all the additional blood you lurkers would have seen by now…
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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Turns 242 to 246 – 1660 to 1680 AD
   
I was pleasantly surprised to find that Sofia was still under my control when I logged back in. It seems that Elkad did not have many units in that area of his empire, or maybe he guessed that I would leave of my own accord and didn’t want to waste any units driving me out faster. If that was his reasoning, then he was right, since I did evacuate the heroic suicide attacker to fight another day, but not before decreasing the city’s population down to one by whipping ancient trash units. Every score point counts in the quest for third place. Elkad took the city later that turn.

   
With that in mind, I have recently changed my domestic policy in regards to the question of tiles vs. specialists. For a while now, I have favored specialists over water tiles. Some coastal tiles were used, but none of the oceans, and filling specialist slots took priority. Now, as the example of Quebec City, with its worked oceans and unused specialists, shows, that has changed. My cities are working the seas to grow and inflate my population score so Elkad doesn’t need to fall as far.

Also, I have come to doubt that further work on research will pay off anyway. Military Science needs 14 turns at -225 GPT to complete last time I checked, and I need 20 more turns to even get enough gold to begin. Sure, that time might be decreased if Riga produced a non-engineer Great Person to start a Golden Age (Ragusa produced a Great Engineer a few turns back), but it will still be a long time. The game could very well be over in the 35-40 turns it takes to get a grenadier force in place to do anything, or be at a point where they aren’t needed anymore. I doubt that focusing on specialists for research at the expense of growth for points will accelerate that much, so growth for points it is.

Of course, growing another 150 points won’t matter if my “friends” on the mainland don’t cooperate, but I think they finally might be.

   
Superdeath successfully went NAP fishing with the Orphans, and now he is at war with Elkad again. OasisTwo is a good start, but Superdeath needs to capture even more of Elkad’s cities than last time to hurt him enough, and last time Elkad was caught completely out of position fighting the Orphans. I doubt that will happen again. But maybe it could happen with a bit of role shifting?

   
Here comes the cavalry! Literally, since the Orphans just completed Rifling and built a few cavalry units, but mostly I am talking about the 60+ knights and cuirassiers that have started moving away from their place near the Superdeath border and towards the Elkad border. I feel about as certain that they will be at war with Elkad in five turns or less as I was that they were going to declare war on me on Turn 179, and when they do…

Well, I haven’t poked my explorers out to look at Elkad’s garrisons much since I declared war on him, but last I checked all of his border cities had very weak garrisons of 0-1 units each, and now he’s distracted even more, and even garrisons of 3-4 units will be helpless against the NEARLY 100 Orphan two-movers on their way. Third place, here we come!
Participated in: Pitboss 40 (lurked by Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 45 (lurked by Charriu and chumchu), Pitboss 63 (replaced Mr. Cairo), Pitboss 66Pitboss 69, Pitboss 74
Participating in: Pitboss 78 (lurked by GT), Pitboss 79 (lurking giraflorens)

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