The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[waterbat]

i thought we might start using GNP when we've met other teams and have enough beakers in the box where known civ with tech will start providing us data

prod tracking was for "hammers in the box" analysis - but we need vision on some cities for it to be useful.

F8 was kind of a waste - if kjn is tracking land and pop in other sheets its way redundant

Start Micro - kill it

[kjn]

Regarding the waiting game going on right now, I realised that the last time CivFr was involved in that, they settled a city.

Assuming they built their settler T25, their capital has generated 180 foodhammers until T40, excluding chopping (available since T34 for them). That's easily a worker and a settler. Ie, I think CivFr will settle their third city first thing T42.

[kjn]

T42 - 2320 BC

Cliff's Notes: the Germans researched Bronze Working, and the Spanish grew their capital to size 3.

Demos and a graph:

Two score increases, and we got visibility on CFC's graphs (and they on ours). The Germans increased their score with 6 (a tech), and the Spanish with 2 (a pop point).

Total soldiers increased with 9000, of which 1000 is the Spanish pop point, and the new rival best is 27000. That makes it clear that the Germans have researched Bronze Working. This also fits with the drop in top GNP. This also tells us that the Germans has a total of four warriors, dropping the number of unassigned warriors from 5 to 3.

The total population rose with 15000, so it was the Spanish capital that grew to size 3. CivFr is the new worst in population.

[kjn]

T43 - 2280 BC

Cliff's Notes: CFC researched either AH or BW (will have to look at the graphs on T44). I think Apolyton and CivPlayers both researched Pottery, but Archery is also a possibility for Apolyton.

Demos:

Last turn, the German team researched BW. Later in the turn they revolted to Slavery and did a 2-pop whip, from 7 total pop to 5.

This turn, CFC, CivPlayers, and Apolyton all researched a tech each. CFC did it in 12t, CivPlayers in 11t, and Apolyton in 7t. From last turn, total power increased with 9000, but that includes the Germans whipping away 1000 of their power, so the real delta is 10000, meaning that one or more of the techs likely carries significant power values.

Bronze Working is the obvious candidate, but lets look at the research times: CivFr and Spanish needed 16t, the Germans 15t, and we 12t (effectively 10t). In our case, we were fueled by 2 cottages the entire time, and a third for the last 5t. Put another way, to research BW in 12t requires 18 bpt sustained, which corresponds to 15C or GNP 24.

Lets look at the graph:



CFC reached that number on T36 or T37 - after they settled Terasvin - and increased that to 27 on T40. They probably spent 1t on max gold on T35. They can't have more than 2 cottages up at their capital, and the first one didn't appear until T35 or T36.

I simply can't get the required GNP numbers out of CFC to research BW in 12t.

Instead, I can't shake the feeling that CFC researched Animal Husbandry. We'll have to look at their power graph next turn to confirm things.

Apolyton got their gold mine up and worked T39, effectively doubling their research rate the last 4t. I think they've researched Pottery, though Archery is also a possibility if CFC went for AH.

CivPlayers probably also researched Pottery. Since they grew their second city to size 2 in 4t, but not until T41, I doubt they could get help from their gold mine yet.

[kjn]

CivFr settled their third city on T43. It is probably coastal, since it only added 3 tiles to the total claimed land area. Remember also that CivFr is CRE, so their capital is already at third ring culture, and their second city on its second ring.

[Dantski]

Yes coastal is likely, however consider the possibility that if they have mirrored land to ourselves and settled in same places, that they could settle 1NW of copper and only claim 3 new land tiles.

[kjn]

T44 - 2240 BC

First, as Sullla noted, the power graph does not lie, and CFC did get BW last turn.

Cliff's Notes: CFC grew their second city to size 2, the Germans have planted their third city, and WPC gained a tech in 14t.

Demos (after the German third city):

We get a 7000 increase in power, 1000 of which is the Germans reaching 6 pop.

CFC gained a pop point, with their second city growing to size 2.

The Germans also gained a pop point with their third city, and it claims nine land tiles. This also turns them into the new leader in food, at 32 over 9 tiles (for comparison, we get 31 over 10 tiles).

I'm just as stumped as Sullla over what WPC researched in 15t. It might be BW, but then a team must have lost a warrior on the interturn. The only tech with 6k power is Archery, but that one is pretty cheap. I think the most likely option is The Wheel (4k), but they sure took their time about it in that case.

I'm going to mark tentative techs as green in the C&D sheet from now on.

[v8mark]

15 turns for The Wheel; is that at all feasible without tricksy tile-swapping? I would doubt it very much (though I'm not in any way an expert!).

Otherwise, do we have to assume it's BW, and that someone lost a warrior?

[T-hawk]

They could have simply started researching something else, then changed their mind to a different tech. Changing course to Archery could have been a panic move in response to barb activity.

[scooter]

Yeah they had to have switched techs. Far more likely than some weird scenario involving them losing a unit at the same time.