[SPOILERS] ARRR Ye Scurvy Dogs! Hannah the Irin

[Mardoc]

And while I can't comment on any of the specifics of the situation due to being quite spoiled, I'd say you should ask yourself this question re: war: Which decision will you regret more if its wrong? If you go to war, fail, and someone else wins? Or if you stay at peace, builder, and someone else wins?

And on this one - honestly, I rank the outcomes something like this:

1. Successful peaceful builder win
   
2. Successful war win
   
3. Peaceful loss
   
4. Warlike loss
   

It's just that I think the probabilities of each of the above (given that I decide to go for it) are something like:

1. Successful peaceful builder win - 0.1%
   
2. Successful war win - 35%
   
3. Peaceful loss - 99.9%
   
4. Warlike loss - 65% (after all, even if I beat Thoth, I still have to overcome Nyktorion, WarriorKnight, etc)
   

Realistically, I think the game is between Nyktorion, Thoth, and me right now. I'd rate our chances of winning something like Thoth 45%, Me 35%, Nyktorion 18%, WarriorKnight 1.5%, Heisenberg 0.5%. Thoth's in the best in-game position but the worst diplomatic position (those are related facts!). I'm in the second best in-game, and middling diplo. WarriorKnight and Nyktorion are approximately tied for next, but if I understand the diplomatic situation correctly, WarriorKnight isn't on a path that can lead to victory, since either Thoth loses and the alliance crushes WK, or Thoth wins and eventually crushes WK.

And Heisenberg's simply in bad shape. He's still got empty land on his border! And is in doubt as to whether Sorcery and mage upgrades by his predicted Elohim invasion date of T170 is going to be possible from a GNP standpoint!

Plus, you all raise another good point: I'm committed to too much at RB right now . A peaceful loss will take a long time to resolve, while a warlike success or failure will be over, regardless, in a shorter period of time.

[Mardoc]

Another fairly boring turn. Thoth picked up the Pillar of Chains, in addition to his vast collection of wonders - and he cleverly put it in his size 24 capital. That's going to hurt.

On the bright side, I'm 1 turn away from Arcane Lore and he still doesn't have Sorcery. And I'm 4 turns from the Guild; even with the Pillar and a golden age I don't think he can successfully challenge for that. That golden age just keeps going and going... .

And, as my current builds finish, I'm queueing up Cultists everywhere. Get them in first, then some Stygians and chariots, and finish off with ships and iron - that's the plan.

[Mardoc]

Oh, I suppose there is one piece of news:

[COLOR="Cyan"]Hi all

I'm not sure what Thoth was referring to either. However I suspect that he was trying to spread discord among us with that comment to split us up. Remember that he's probably known about the dogpile for a long time, and if he can get any of us to leave then he'll have a much easier time with the rest of us. I'd be wary of anything he says since he knows we're coming.

Regards,
WarriorKnight[/COLOR]

[COLOR="SeaGreen"]
WarriorKnight, am I interpreting your statement correctly when I conclude that your NAP with Thoth still runs out on T160?

If that is the case, that would be very good: Thoth currently has a large army (34 units in total, including 4 Eidola, 4 Ritualists, and 8 Chariots), parked in front of my borders, facing a large stack of my own in a kind of a "cold war". That means he must be rather open to atacks at his other fronts. Do you think you can actually hurt him when T160 comes, or at least force him to split up the large stack I mentioned?

best regards,
Nyktorion[/COLOR]

[COLOR="DarkOrchid"]I suppose we were just reading too much into Thoth's comments then. At the moment Thoth might have access to Eidolons, but they aren't really mobile and can't be hasted. Ritualists and Chariots make poor defensive units.
WK does have access to a highly mobile force of hasted and blessed monks, with a spearhead of Valin with Gela. And superior collateral damage in the form of Corlindale with Snowfall. Since your NAP concludes at t160, and you would still be under the protection of Sanctuary, would you preemptively strike at Thoth, now that his forces are all accumulated away exposing his southern front?

Mardoc would be able to join in when his NAP runs out at 170 (I believe?), and I'd be able to assist, once WK's Sanctuary wears off and I could pass through.

-Heisenberg
[/COLOR]

Personally, I think WarriorKnight is lying through his teeth here, or at least saying only misleading things. I wish I were better at the Werewolf side of civ (or that Gaspar weren't spoiled!), but I notice he doesn't say any specifics or anything that directly contradicts/answers the question of 'do you have an NAP past T160'. It'll be enlightening to see what Nyk and Heisenberg's direct questions produce.

But nothing in WK's message would necessarily be false if he's actually signed an NAP with Thoth:
[COLOR="Cyan"]
I'm not sure what Thoth was referring to either.[/COLOR] He may be confident, but being sure would require him to ask Thoth and get an answer

However I suspect that he was trying to spread discord among us with that comment to split us up. Yes, he certainly was. I think he'd already succeeded on you, WK, and was working on me.

Remember that he's probably known about the dogpile for a long time, and if he can get any of us to leave then he'll have a much easier time with the rest of us. Very true. Which is why he started the negotiations with the Elohim, right WK?
[COLOR="Cyan"]
I'd be wary of anything he says since he knows we're coming.[/COLOR] This is a true point. Only, it doesn't just apply to Thoth, does it? Plus, well, Thoth came within inches of talking me into being neutral here. And why would anything leak (or he care if it does) if he succeeded? He wants to fight Nyktorion anyway.

And what does WK not say? "Yes, I'm still commited to the attack"; "My NAP runs until T160", "Let me prove my good intentions by offering to NAP the rest of you".

[Gaspar]

Sorry, pal. I think you're just fine on your own. Games are awfully sleepy without dedlurkers though, I've learned that the hard way.

[DaveV]

I don't think I have any good advice to offer. It's your game and your decision. You're the one putting in the time to play; I guess my best advice would be to take the course you expect to make that time most enjoyable.

[Mardoc]

Not much to report this turn, and I'm in a hurry, but I'll say this much:

Arcane Lore is in! I have a new Great Sage! And it's 2 turns until the Guild of Hammers, Nox Noctis, both of which are on track to be mine.

[Mardoc]

Dammit, one turn! I could have whipped the Guild last turn, too, and guaranteed it'd be mine! I just didn't want to contaminate my GPP pool and risk missing out on Nox Noctis

Thoth must die.

[Mardoc]

Ok, so the good (?) news is the demos. Sort of. Without Thoth's golden age mucking them up, I've finally taken my rightful place as #1. This will be exacerbated this upcoming turn when I fire off my golden age.

On the other hand, Thoth's production is 3x mine. Admittedly, that doesn't include my whips, but it's still a hard gap to cross. How to do it? Well...there's several possibilities. Is there a tech within reach that makes a huge military difference? Doesn't look like it. I could revolt to Military State/Conquest and buy my troops, but I don't really like that solution, it doesn't leave any flexibility for building production, nor does it let my cities keep growing. Plus, well, now that I have smokehouses and granaries I believe whipping is more efficient. There's still one trick I can exploit, though, and that's upgrades. I can train a bunch of warriors, Drown them, then upgrade them to Stygians, and have an instant latest generation (ignoring Eidolons) force.

I've just got to figure out how much that will actually cost me - 16 Hammers/warrior. 60 gold to Drown him (very sad this doesn't scale with speed). Then upgrade to Stygian, which is a 20 hammer difference at Quick. I don't recall just how much that actually costs per hammer, though. I think I saw that it's 3 gold/hammer? Which would mean another 60 gold to upgrade to Stygian. A total of 120 gold to buy me from 16 hammers to 80, and Stygians were already going to be the high strength core of my force. Which is still better than upgrading directly, I gain 54 hammers for 120 gold.

If I turn research to 0, I make about 600 gold/turn, so that's 5 extra Stygians/turn. Once I get to a point where I'm comfortable shutting down research, of course .

So, what do I currently need? Fanaticism, of course. Poisons, Smelting, Iron Working. That's enough to let me field Chariots, Stygians, Pirates/frigates, assassins, hemah and cultists...that's enough to let me be potentially competitive. I think the best plan is therefore to rush through these while I'm in my golden age, then switch to a total military pump, combining this upgrade cheese with whipping all my non-stygian forces (cultists, chariots, etc.). Oh, and I'll also need a bunch of combat workers in order to take full advantage of Raiders. Done properly, I ought to be able to hit several of Thoth's cities on the first turn of war, between naval attacks and Raiding attacks.

The only thing I'm missing right now is a means of getting 2XP on all my units so I can start them with Mobility. Especially the Stygians who can't benefit from Haste. The choices appear to be Theocracy (if I add on the very expensive Religious Law, and give up on city maintenance costs), Apprenticeship (if I give up on Slavery production), or Conquest (if I give up on my trade route income, which I'm relying on for my Stygians, and if I burn a turn to research Warfare).

I'm frustrated here, because I can't see a way to do it without cutting my income and/or production badly. I'm trying to justify that combat workers + raiders + ships might be enough movement, and I need numbers above all else. The only reasonable alternate option I see is to go for Warfare and swap to MilState/Conquest, but I'm not convinced it's worth giving up Slavery + Foreign trade, especially when upgrading can get me nearly all the benefits of rushbuying.

[Selrahc]

On the other hand, Thoth's production is 3x mine. Admittedly, that doesn't include my whips, but it's still a hard gap to cross. How to do it?

It would take some sort of empire wide production boost to close that kind of gap. Some kind of guild of hammers. :neenernee

Bad luck on losing the wonder. Sounds like it would have been something of a game changer.

EDIT: Something to consider if going for drown Stygian's, they are undead and vulnerable to fire. But on the plus side, a tower of necromancy build will give them all the Strong promotion, making Iron Stygians S10 units.

[Mardoc]

It would take some sort of empire wide production boost to close that kind of gap. Some kind of guild of hammers. :neenernee

Bad luck on losing the wonder. Sounds like it would have been something of a game changer.

Yeah - if it were just me vs. Thoth, I would probably concede at this point. The only thing keeping me in it for now is that I believe it'll be a 2v1. (no, I still don't believe WK)