[Spoiler] First rodeo: Jalepeno takes the bull by the horns.

[jalepeno]

Turn 104

More mistform shenanigans

I set up to "extract" some more gold from Yell0w

He's got a shock warrior and an acolyte in there.

Meanwhile, he's trying to reconnect bronze

...I've got a 5th vampire from Networking that can hit that stack as well. Now would be the time for him to pop Sanctuary.

Honor comes in at EOT

Free spread in Collaboration already is pretty nice. Probably gonna run the disciple up to networking to help pump rathas quickly.

Demos

TBS just launched a golden age, pushing his MFG into first. I don't want to even talk about his GNP.

Diplo

It appears that the Golden Age you spoke of has come to pass. And, as of this turn, it looks like the Kuriotates might be building themselves a Tower of Alteration. Assuming that they're getting Life Mana from the Ljosalfar, that is. Maybe the elves could be persuaded to break that deal.

We might be interested in some resource trades. Furs and sugar, mainly; we've been getting Wines from the Ljosalfar (though they might be willing to supply Sugar instead). We plan to lay claim to a second source of Pearls with our next city.

As for the NAP: we're not ready to make any committments for the moment, but it's certainly looking like something might need to be done about those Towers.

Flintheart Glomgold, Founder and CFO of the Royal Khazad Mining Corporation

Yeah, they're coming for me. After taking 2 turns to think it over (and chat with Mardoc, their thread has been quite lively of late), HK gives me the whole "we might be interested" and "something might need to be done" treatment, all while completely sidestepping my request to keep anti-TBS discussions private. So yeah, I think I'm gonna need to build a bigger army. Q, what's a reasonable number of Rathas in order to slow down attacks from TBS & HK at once? 10? 15? Are vicars good for anything (besides being upgraded to druids)?

[Qgqqqqq]

I've never really played around with rathas enough to answer the first, though DaveV recently posted an article on magic resistance and chances in his XXVII spoiler thread which should cover it - I suspect 10ish. For the second, Vicars are very very sucky (except for revealing mistforms and nox units, which no-one seems to be heading for).
I agree that's pretty bad from HK, not quite red handed but definitely worth assuming they're coming soon. Is it worth first striking them and burning a close city or two?
I know we need time to build up, but they're clearly planning this, and getting them without TBS on their side/before they get druids could be a lot healthier for our lifestyle.
Do they have a substantial army and/or high gold stockpiles, or do you think its going to be further in the future? If they want to still have a chance against TBS it seems like they'd have to strike awfully soon, and its not like either of them to miss how close he is to ToM.

[jalepeno]

Thanks, I looked up the original post.

One thing I forgot to note: our defacto allies, Warbaxia, have Arcane Lore now. Govannan can't be far behind.

I've been doing some research on Blinding Light, and its odds are pretty bad. Base resistance is 50%, +10% in cities, +5% per level of unit, +20% for hero. So Gibbon would be at 95% resistance outside cities, 100% in cities. One more promo needed for 100% resistance outside cities. If that's their plan for counterattack against us, I think I'll take those odds.

For my own reference, I'm adding a list of promotions on the caster that will alter the resistance of units being attacked (Rathas/Radiant Guards don't start with any of these ):
Avatar -50
Channelling II/III -10 each
Potency -10
Metamagic I/II/III -5 each
Puppet +20
Tower of Alteration -20

Spell damage:
Combat I/II/III/IV/V +5 each
Metamagic I/II/III +5 each
Puppet -10
Unholy Taint +10

On defense, units get a base resistance of defense*2 + level*2 + (city cultural defense)/4. Any type resistance (death, fire, lightning, etc.) is added to this base number.
Nominal damage is the base damage of the spell (40 for Snowfall) plus any modifiers. Two random numbers in the range (0-nominal) are generated, and added together. This
sum is multiplied by (100-resistance)/100.
If this modified damage is greater than the spell max damage (80 for Snowfall), it is limited to the maximum.

tl;dr: two snowfalls should, on average, do the max damage. The variance on damage is very high, so there may be a few lightly damaged units.

Snowfall will turn all land tiles surrounding the caster to Snow for 3-8 turns, and has a 2% chance per tile of spawning a Blizzard. It will put out smoke or flames.

He didn't mentioned dwarven, probably b/c it wasn't relevant in his situation. 4-5 rathas should be enough to take care of pretty much any stack from TBS, but I'll need more to face HK. I'd love to strike first, but I feel like there's still a chance to convince him to go after TBS and I don't want to burn any bridges I don't have to. If TBS starts the cooldown though, all bets are off. It'll be time to hurt HK as bad as I can before things get really ugly. Soooo, glad we don't share much of a border. As Khazad, not only is HK sitting on 1000 gold, but he hasn't used his worldspell yet either. His army is growing quickly, almost as strong as mine now, and he's somehow still sending out settling parties (1 more city than me now).

[jalepeno]

Turn 105

I bluntly called out HK for not answering my question; I can't afford to just exchange pleasantries and vague offers of future deals. If he wants to build up for an attack with TBS, I'm going to force him to either lie to my face or just stop talking to me. Because things aren't looking good.

TBS called in our mana deal (from not competing for the drama bard).

He's also got a meta II mage now

That node was metamagic last turn.

AND his golden age is going to be a long one.

He's obviously planning to pop enough GP to keep it going. Furthermore, he just switched to RoK (which loses him his mp happiness in cities from Social Order). Could it be he wants to grab Arete to further boost tower production? Or maybe he just wants a pile of SoK to rush them.

I shared all this with HK, but I fully expect more misdirection as he seems to be hiding his army from me.

I caught vision on over half his cities, so there's an equivalent of like 10 moroi and 7 vampires in his core. He finished ToD eot last turn turn. I fully expect he'll be grabbing commune with nature for Druids.

Ok, enough complaining, time for the fun part of the turn!

Yell0w still didn't use sanctuary (I think he just wants me to finish him off), so I kept on smashing his piggy banks.

2nd death node completed just in time this turn.








Razed it.

He moved his stack of crusaders away from my vampires, but not into his capital; which meant I could have razed his capital, but it would have exposed my vampires to counterattack. I'm hoping he'll send them off to try to avenge Warrenpoint and allow me to take and keep it (feasting!). If he keeps them close enough to respond in 1 turn, I'll probably just move up my stacks and start pillaging with spectres.

Demos

[jalepeno]

Looks like I got through to HK!

Jalapeno,

The Khazad do appreciate a man who speaks his mind. So let's speak plainly. We've had a fine partnership with the Kuriotates thusfar, but you make a compelling case that it's time for that partnership to end. We'll agree that from this point forward, this conversation is between us.

We agree with your assessment that the Kuriotates are poised to win this thing, and we've got a mutual interest in stopping them. Of course, stopping them doesn't do us much good if it means handing Erebus over to vampires. So if we agree to an NAP, we want to know that you'll be taking advantage of that to put pressure on the Kuriotates, rather than growing and making yourself stronger.

We're willing to cooperate with you in this. But we'll need you to agree to a few things. First,
you need to call off your war with the Elohim. We want your resources directed to the west, not to gaining cities by conquering an unrelated civilization. Second, your hunter needs to stop hanging around our southern border. He's making folks nervous. Our boys have work to do, and they can't do it while they're being watched.

If these terms are agreeable, then we'll agree to cancel all of our arrangements with TBS provided that you do the same. We can then talk about an NAP and specific tactical matters.

The message that did the trick

Maybe's and might's and vague murmurings of resource trades are nice and all, but you didn't answer my most important question: Could you promise not to share our discussions on this subject with TBS? You're too sharp to have missed it...which makes the fact that you glossed over it quite suspicious. Have you been talking with him about this, maybe trying to get a better deal from him? Call me paranoid, but the last time someone placated me with vague talk of resource deals, they razed two of my cities less than 5 turns later. I really need a definitive statement from you on this. I'm happy to reciprocate, but let's stop dancing around the subject.

We don't have time to screw around. I caught sight of TBS' first meta II mage this turn. You noticed he just switched to pacifism and RoK. He's going to pop enough GP to keep the GA going...AND he's going to be able to switch to Arete to further boost production (not to mention rushing minor towers with SoK). I'm not sure what you're waiting for; you're obviously more experienced than I am, and I'd be happy to hear why you don't think he can complete the ToM in the next 15 turns.

If - and only if - we can clear that up, I'm happy to discuss resource trades. I have extras of wines (now), sugar (currently farmed - can hook any time), and fur (requires a couple turns to clear out mistforms first). I propose trading sugar for pearls starting in 5 turns.

To summarize: 1. A definitive statement on info-sharing with TBS is required for any deals (or even negotiations really). 2. A NAP is unnecessary unless we agree to collaborate against TBS.

Still hoping we can work together,
Jalepeno

TL;DR
First off, he promises that from now on our conversation is private (no word on what he'd been sharing before). Furthermore, he agrees to cancel all arrangements with TBS on 3 conditions.

1. We do the same
   
2. Leave Yell0w alone
   
3. Move the exploring hunter away from his lands
   

#1 is a little tricky. I hate to initiate the cooldown when Kurio power is still so much higher than mine, but I should be able to cover exposed cities with summons pretty well, and he's in pacifism for the next 8 turns anyways so its doable. It also doesn't feel right to cancel the mana trade (but maybe I could explain that to HK). As for #2, sucks to not get more pillage gold, but I can understand where he's coming from. Maybe we can work out an agreement to raze Cahir Abbey to push blight. #3 is no problem.

Thoughts Q?

[Qgqqqqq]

Firstly well done!!
We simply can't call off the mana node, that's breaking an earlier deal - how about when you cancel with TBS you mention that the mana trade will end with the war obviously, but he'll likely be done with the mana by then, and if not maybe setup a bypass trade to get the mana to him?
As for initiating the countdown, well obviously we want that big time, but we need to make sure that the dwarves will hit them at the same time - do they have a 5 turn recurring NAP too? Otherwise we're just signing on for a centaur invasion.
I think getting a agreement about the Elohim is vital, we certainly want to keep feasting/razing cities. Isn't he still settling cities? If so he doesn't really have a leg to stand on commitment wise, and besides, feasting the capitol will be good for military purposes.

[jalepeno]

Thanks, sorry for the lack of updates recently. I only just got T106 yesterday, and RL has been rearing its ugly head. Anyways, I explained our predicament re. trades with TBS, and it sounds like he's in a similar situation.

Jalapeno,

Is one of the Mana nodes you have in sight the one west of Kwythellar, on the Grigori border? That's the only one we can see. Flyover reveals a sizeable stack there, with one Dispel mage and a couple of adepts. This turn, the Kuriotates had Entropy, Death, and Chaos mana available for trade. If they're getting Shadow Mana from you, they're undoubtedly working on a Tower of Necromancy. It also means that they're able to convert three nodes in a single turn, so they'll be in a position to start the remaining towers immediately on finishing the last (due to their palace mana). They've got a fair bit of cash on hand, and only need two more techs (Divination and Arcane Lore) to pull it off, so they can afford a bit of cash-rushing to speed things along. My estimate is a Kuriotate victory on Turn 117 if we don't stop them.

Unfortunately, we're in the same bind as you: earlier agreements with TBS which prevent us from acting quickly. We've cancelled our NAP, but the earliest we'll be able to attack is turn 115. I'll understand if you want to wait for us, but that'll be cutting it awfully close. Especially since our border is far from Kwythellar (though perhaps the Grigori will allow us to launch an attack through their territory).

As for the Blight: at this point, I'm not seeing that it'll do us much good. Starving his cities mean that they'll shrink, but also that they don't need to bother working any food tiles. It won't have a noticable effect until fifteen turns after it starts, at which point the Kuriotates will already have won or lost.

TL;DR - HK thinks TBS can win ToM by ~T117, has already canceled his NAP but can't attack until T115. It's "up to me" when I want to attack, although it seems like he'd like me to go in earlier (maybe see if I can manage on my own first, eh?). No mention of NAP between us. Anyways, it really does look like TBS is pushing hard for ToM (on HK's turn he had everything in line to build tower of necromancy). So maybe we should initiate cooldown, if only as a distraction for TBS. If he sends an invasion force, that might leave one of his megacities undefended. Current plan is to reply to HK asking for a NAP w/5 turn cooldown for us to deal with TBS. And then go ahead and initiate cooldown with TBS, depending on what I see in the save.

[jalepeno]

Turn 106

The buildup begins in earnest.

Not the most auspicious start

Oh well, who needs tech now anyways?

Mistforms

I have a sneaking suspicion that's the last one, based on my mapping of events so far. My moroi gained 3xp, so must have been pretty low odds.

Yell0w moved his stack of crusaders/confessors into range of my skeleton stack (and everything else)

Good things ensued. I didn't quite have enough movement on my last vamp to take down the last confessor, but that's pretty much his entire army. 2 warriors in his capital. I've got 2 full strength vamps guarding the stack, so not particularly worried about counterattack. I was quite impressed by how much damage skeletons were able to do at low (<1%) odds. Must be that first strike from commando promotion.

It's finally golden age time

Before



After

Paradigm will try to spit out a GP before the GA ends, and Collaboration hopefully won't be far behind, so I can potentially kick off the 2-man GA pretty soon after this one ends.

Demos

Finished off archery to add a little to my production. debating whether to 1 turn sailing as well for a shot at pearls; that would give more happy cap for feasting. priesthood is only a 1-turn tech anyways, and I don't need it for several turns at least. I'm considering making fewer rathas, and more vampires since it looks like I might be attacking into TBS. Will switch to AV for ritualists in 5 turns.

[jalepeno]

Diplo

With HK

Jalapeno,

You're quite right. We neglected to consider that Engineer in our previous estimate. It now looks like TBS could finish this thing on Turn 116, or possibly even Turn 115 if he swaps into Arete as you earlier feared.

On the bright side, he doesn't seem to have finished his Tower of Necromancy before converting his nodes to Elementalism. When does you Shadow Mana deal with him expire?

We'll help any way we can. NAP with five-turn cooldown: agreed.
Unfortunately we're not in a position to time our attack with yours, due to our earlier agreement.

Guild of the Nine, Bowyers, and the massive Kuriotate GNP ought to make Kwythellar a tough nut to crack. But we don't necessarily need to crack it instantly: I'd propose pillaging the land around the city with spectres, particularly any tiles that contribute to his production.

We'll be approaching the city from the west on turn 115, from Grigori land. If all goes according to plan, our druids ought to be able to soften them up quite a bit. And the Grigori will support our efforts as well. I don't expect them to have much of an army, but if our druids can inflict enough collateral damage, every little bit will help.

Got the NAP (5-turn cooldown). Sounds like WK could be in on the dogpile as well. That could actually be a huge help assuming he doesn't have a NAP. TBS is carefully guarding his hot-switching mana nodes...but the settlement claiming one of those nodes only has 2 defenders. If WK doesn't have a NAP and could take that, it could set TBS back several turns.

With TBS

I am deeply concerned by reports that Kurio scholars are working on horrific magics and Kurio officials are going so far as to build towers to honor their profane research. You must know the alluring path to Mastery is fraught with peril for the whole world. The Calabim simply cannot condone such acts.

I'm afraid I'm going to have to initiate the cooldown on our NAP. My current understanding is that the earliest you can then initiate aggression is T112, while I must wait until T113 (assuming such a turn comes).

Really? My advisors never mentioned any peril ... however they did warn against trusting folks who want to eat me.

I think your understanding is correct. I expect we'll make it to T113 for you to have a crack, best not to dally though, our new project manager is very impressive, you might not have much time afterwards.

Oh wow, TBS is confident enough that he's urging me to attack ASAP! He has pretty good reason to feel confident: Kwythellar makes 73 hammers max from hammers (79 if he switches to arete), +35 from pillar of chains. He's in God King, so with a forge as well he's making 108*1.75 = 189 to 114*1.75 = 199 hammers/turn. So lessor towers are 3 turns each, from scratch. He also just popped a GE and makes 1000 gpt at max tax (1519 gold in the bank). He's already finished ToAlteration, so if he uses the GE (instead of using for a GA) and cash rushes, I could see him finishing the lessor towers before I can attack in 5 turns. At that point, all he has to do is turtle up with iron longbows and as many mercenaries as 1000gpt can buy.

Earliest I can attack is T113, which still feels super duper early. I've only got 12 vampires right now and am beginning to wish I'd skipped Emprean for now so that I could have time to get ritualists. As it is, it might be too late to get any, so I might try to tech smelting and IW first, to at least get iron weapons on all my units. I guess I could try getting iron from HK too, but that might be a tough sell. Anyways, I'll still make ~4 rathas (can always switch back and make more later if needed) and then focus on vampires.

[Qgqqqqq]

Wow everything's happening fast...I think we'll need the collateral more then the weapons for trying to actually crack Kwethellar, but definitely speak to HK, he may not like it but I think we're a bit beyond that now...
How useful do you think pillaging would actually be? We don't want to make a mistake and let it end, but it could give us enough time to combine.