The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[kjn]

Back, and will take a closer look at things tomorrow evening.

[kjn]

No, apparently I have to stay up a little while longer.

The power values give some interesting data. Rival total rose with 2000, but rival worst stayed put at 17000. I think this gives an indication that Univers didn't research a tech with a power value on T46. Why?

First, right now there are only two teams with an odd number of "base" power (that is power from tech, buildings, and population): CFC and Univers. CFC has 17000 in base power, while Univers has 9000 or 11000 (depending on Mining or The Wheel was the T35 tech). Earlier, I had also assigned three warriors to Univers, but that might be wrong. But I'm 99% certain that Univers is the rival worst in power.

However, if they researched a power value tech, then they must have lost a warrior on exactly the same turn they received the tech, which is a pretty big coincidence.

[kjn]

T47 - 2120 BC

Cliff's Notes: CivFr received 4 land points, CivForum grew a city (probably their capital) to size 3, and WPC grew their second city to size 2. Huge increases in power: we have two teams at 28000 to 29000 power, rival total rose to 9000 (of which 1000 is from population), and rival worst rose to 18000 (from 17000).

Demos:

First, when analysing score changes, make use of the "Score breakdown" and Land sheets! CivFr didn't grow two of their cities on the same turn (which would give 5 points, not 4), but received land points from their second city (founded T27).

The increase in population from demos matches one new size 2 and one new size 3 city, which means WPC grew their second city to size 2 in 7t. The Germans had 2 size 2 cities, but I'm pretty sure it's their capital that has grown in 5t (whipped 4->2 on T42).

The power tracking is nigh impossible right now, but there must have been at least three teams that has increased their power this turn. Two of them reached 28000-29000 power (since top rival is 29000 and we are #3 at 28000, down from #1 last turn), and the rival worst changed from 17000 to 18000. Total change was 9000, of which 8000 is from units.

I think the new rival worst is CivPlayers, with 12000 base power and likely an army of 3 warriors. Univers is probably at 19000 power right now, with either The Wheel and 3 warriors or Mining and 4 warriors. That leaves 6000 in power change - one possibility is a warrior for the Germans, and a chariot for another team, but that's just guesswork.

[luddite]

I'm looking forward to seeing how the expansion of the other teams will stall as their economies crash

[kjn]

Turn 48 - 2080 BC

Link to raw demos at start of turn

A whopping five pop increases this turn, divided over 4 teams - WPC, Spanish, Apolyton, and Univers. Since the Spanish received two in the same turn, and have two cities, that makes their cities size 5 and 2. Then we have one city growing to size 6. The rival max gives a hint there with 156, indicating one size 6 and one size 2 city.

So it's WPC who has the size 6 city and is rival best.

That leaves a total change of 54000, which is two size 3 cities growing to size 4. Both Apolyton and Univers has a size 3 city each, fitting neatly with this change.

CivFr's third city expanded borders, and claimed four land tiles in its second ring. The rival best and the rival total both increased with 4.

Rival best power rose 6000, and total rival power with 15000, of which 4000 came from pop. At a guess, we have our first axe build here.

Later in the turn, CivPlayers settled their third city, claiming 9 tiles. Another team has revolted to Slavery. Candidates for the latter are CivFr, Apolyton, and the Spanish.

Mid-turn demos

[kjn]

T49 - 2040 BC

Cliff's Notes: CivPlayers grew their second city to size 4. The Germans received land points. WPC and Apolyton researched a tech each. I have tentatively assigned Mysticism to WPC and Writing to Apolyton.

Demos at start of turn:

Lots of score changes this turn. The Germans received 5 land points, WPC and Apolyton each researched a tech, and CivPlayers grew their second city to size 4. Later in the turn, CivFr was the first to four cities, but that analysis will come later.

Global power rose with 5000, of which 1000 was from pop. That makes it highly unlikely that any of them researched BW or Archery.

WPC gained their tech in 5t, and Apolyton did so in 6t. Since top GNP fell quite a bit from last turn (50 to 41), I first suspected Masonry for Apolyton, but they don't have Mysticism yet as far as I can tell. It's probably a team running binary research. I think Mysticism is a likely tech for both of the teams, though the top GNP drop could fit with Apolyton researching Writing at a double discount. In that case, Apolyton has reached a not inconsiderable early game research power. Their lack of BW will probably be a problem for them, though.

For now, I pencil in Mysticism for WPC and Writing for Apolyton.

CivFr's fourth city

Demos after their fourth city:

CivFr was the first team to four cities, which are size 2, 2, 1, and 1. With their new city, the rival worst in food output rose from 19 to 26 and rival worst in power from 20000 to 21000, which makes it likely that those values belong to CivFr.

Both of those values are highly problematic if they belong to them. If we assume a land similar to ours, then they have easy access to two wet corns and one deer. Two cities working those would give 21F, 22F if one of them is settled on the banana (which is the case of CivFr). Even 26F over 4 cities and 6 pop is very low - it's their city tiles, two wet corns, a deer, and nothing else. They'd have three pop working plains mines!

The power value signals a team in trouble. Right now my power notes say that they should have 23000 in power - 3000 from pop and 16000 from tech, and 2 warriors. If they are the rival worst, they must have lost a warrior sometime earlier. With one warrior over four cities, the likelihood of losing one of them to a barb must be very high.

Later in the turn

The French just whipped a size 2 city to size 1. No clue if it was their capital or their second city - I put it on their second city for now, not that it matters that much.

It is most probably an emergency whip. Of all the teams that do a one-pop whip to get overflow into a wonder (read: Stonehenge) CivFr is by far the most unlikely.

This also confirms that CivFr is the rival worst in power, since that dropped with 1000 with the whip.

[novice]

Here's the rest of the C&D discussion from the temporary forum:

What in the world is that team doing? Of all maps, this feels like one of the worst possible to race out to four cities with tiny populations in each one. Their maintenance costs must be outrageous...

I seriously don't get this team's early game management. Their capital has never grown past size 2!

What in the world is that team doing? Of all maps, this feels like one of the worst possible to race out to four cities with tiny populations in each one. Their maintenance costs must be outrageous...

I seriously don't get this team's early game management. Their capital has never grown past size 2!

Really wish this forum had our old weedy smiley right now.

[kjn]

T50 - 2000BC

Cliff's Notes: The Germans and the French each gained a pop point; the Germans grew their capital to size 4 and the French grew one of their three small cities to size 2. Total power from other factors rose 2000.

Demos:

Only two score changes this turn, CivFr and the Germans each gained 2 points. Total pop rose 32000, so in each case it's pop increases, fitting with 3->4 and 1->2. The French don't have a size 3 city, so the German capital grew to size 4. The French growth is tentatively assigned to their C city, founded 7t ago, but it might be their newly whipped city.

Total power rose 3000, of which 1000 is from pop. Might be a warrior, or a spear together with a warrior loss. However, since rival worst in power is still 21000 (up from 20000) it's probably not an emergency whipped warrior.

It took 6t for CivFr's second city to expand borders, so they're in Slavery now, but they didn't revolt until the T43-T48 range.

Total claimed land area rose 13000, and is a single capital expanding to third-ring borders. The only capitals settled on T0 were us, CivFr (who has already expanded), the Spanish, and CFC. Since CFC is SPI, I'm pretty sure it's them, and that the Spanish has revolted to Slavery.

Next turn the Spanish capital should expand borders together with us, and any T1-settling team that haven't revolted to Slavery yet. Since I have the suspicion of several teams not having BW yet, this will be an interesting test case. Expect my precise land tracking to break down over the next few turns.

[kjn]

T51 - 1960 BC

Cliff's Notes: The Germans grew their third city to size 2, and CFC grew Terasvin to size 3. I think the Spanish and CivPlayers researched Animal Husbandry, and that Univers researched Fishing. Last we have a warrior build.

Demos:

As Sullla said, lots of score increases this turn, and we also got quite a bit of new land points. The capitals of the Spanish and every team that haven't had a revolt yet expanded to the third ring. I doubt I can get any real tracking of that until T71.

The Germans grew their third city to size 2 in 7t and gained 1000 in power. Not a sign of quick city development there. CFC grew Terasvin to size 3 in 7t, and also gained 1000 in power. Again, not a sign of quick city development, unless they built and chopped a worker in the city.

Power rose with 8000, 6000 once pop is factored in, but rival worst (21), rival best (35), and our standing (#4 at 29) didn't change. That gives an indication that any power changes are rather minor.

The Spanish, CivPlayers, and Univers each gained a tech. The time it took was:

ETA: Univers didn't receive a tech, they got land points instead.

Spanish: 17t (!)
CivPlayers: 8t
Univers: 5t

Of interest is that the rival best and average GNP fell markedly, so the techs researched might be heavily discounted. I'm also assuming that the Spanish team haven't managed to increase their research power markedly.

Thus, I think the Spanish have researched Animal Husbandry, for 2000 in power.

CivPlayers may have their gold online, and could thus potentially research Animal Husbandry quickly. I can't see any other good candidate for them.

For Univers at 5t, huge costs, and a very late Mining, I put in Fishing.

That leaves a warrior build for a team. Could be anyone but CivFr.

[regoarrarr]

Can we get an admin to fix this thread title so it doesn't say "C&D" and says either C&D or C and D or Cloak and Dagger or something else?

This is CRUCIAL :-D