I guess you had a spectacularly good start to this war, but things have gone a bit off the rails since. Dribbling units in one by one to get killed at Eagerday makes me think you're underestimating Haram badly. I have a feeling that only having galley at Darhan is making the same mistake again. Can you get into a mindset of "what would be the best thing I'd do if I were him?" rather than "I hope he doesn't do the things I can see that will wreck my stack"?
Also attacking Sanschu seems an odd choice - is that city strategically important or did you just see an opportunity to hurt him?
Can you give us an overview showing more strategically where you're trying to hurt him and where you need to defend?
(November 11th, 2014, 06:29)Old Harry Wrote: Did he ask for a cease fire or a peace treaty?
I guess you had a spectacularly good start to this war, but things have gone a bit off the rails since. Dribbling units in one by one to get killed at Eagerday makes me think you're underestimating Haram badly. I have a feeling that only having galley at Darhan is making the same mistake again. Can you get into a mindset of "what would be the best thing I'd do if I were him?" rather than "I hope he doesn't do the things I can see that will wreck my stack"?
Also attacking Sanschu seems an odd choice - is that city strategically important or did you just see an opportunity to hurt him?
Can you give us an overview showing more strategically where you're trying to hurt him and where you need to defend?
Cease fire. And I agree. Some things I have not handled well. I didn't consider that he could reinforce eagerday through Seven's territory, so that cost me several units and I threw away some more at it. I completely overlooked that you can do a navigation promotion and make your galleys 3 moves and it cost me a city.
I haven't really developed a plan to move forward with the war, and I think that's what I need to do. Right now, I'm throwing things around just trying to make him redeploy his units to try to create some kind of opening that I can exploit, but it's not working for a few reasons:
- Haram is now (with the exception of eagerday) defending chokepoints, which gives him just a few places where he has to place strong forces.
- His land is now fairly compact, allowing him to use centrally located stacks to cover multiple areas. His keshik/knight stack, for example, can cover from hitshowers to Sanchu.
- Because the cities I've taken are under cultural pressure from his core, his borders are pressed up against them (both Yak and Sitatunga). Not only does this not give me strategic depth, but it reduces my ability to move units quickly against him.
So, time to take a deep breath and come up with a new plan.
Both Sanchu and Darhan (and Samarqand) were situations where I'm trying to get him to redeploy to weaken himself somewhere else, so that's why I was doing it.
I'll try to put up a summary of the strategic situation later today when I get home from work. But in general, what is the best way to handle this type of situation? Hold all offensive actions until I can build an overwhelming force? He's teching towards Steel and Cannons, which in the short term will be a serious issue, but in the long term will not be as much of one once I reach Rifling and Cavalry.
In world news, Gawdzak kicked off a Golden Age and switched civics to Nationhood and Police State…looks like the world is about to erupt in war soon.
In war news, haram’s axe wasted my pike, which was not a surprise. Then he went after my remaining cuirs and pikes near Sanchu. He lost three keshiks and a knight to kill an equal number of units.
Other than that, no combat this round. I didn’t make any attacks, just held what I had and continued to move built forces forward into the war zones. As requested, here’s my best effort a strategic summary, enclosed in spoiler tags because there’s a lot of screenshots.
Overview of haram’s territory. I will refer to everything from the point of view of Haram’s empire:
We have, essentially, four points of contact: NW (Sitatunga), NE (Yak/hitshowers/eagerday), SE (Sanchu/Leopard), S (naval battles). There is also a piece of land directly NNE of Ning-Hsia which has jungle and hills and has been left undeveloped by either of us, so it acts as a pretty decent border. No troops can get through it (even mobility-promoted) without the other knowing and having 1 or 2 turns to react.
Here is a closer view of the NW, with a highlight of the units I have in Sitatunga.
Note that I have two more cuirs that have been galley’d down to Darhan where one is about to pillage his silks on that little one-tile island. They will be returned to Sitatunga when done. You can also see the jungle/hill area NE of Ning-Hsia I was referring to.
NE, with a highlight of the units I have in Yak.
I’ve been holding new forces that are coming forward in Wildebeest, 4N of Yak so that Haram cannot see them. I haven’t decided what to do with them yet, but I figured it is much better if he doesn’t know about them (unless he has enough espionage, which is possible, though I’ve been throwing a lot at him).
SE, with a highlight of units in Leopard.
There is one cuir and 2 maces 1N of Leopard, returning from the failed attack on Sanchu. I also have 2 cuirs and a few other forces in Giraffe, the city E of Leopard.
And finally, the S, where the naval battles have been occurring, with a highlight of units in Nyala (my forward city on the border with mackoti).
Each of my ships is a stack of at least 2 tris. The stack 2N of Giraffe also has 2 galleys. Giraffe currently has an additional tri and galley in it, and another galley is almost there (you can see it 2S1E). A third galley is on its way there from further south, as well. So I will soon have 5 galleys in Giraffe and a total of 8 or 9 tris.
Here’s my military advisor with a list of all of my current military units:
And here’s Haram’s…obviously this is only what I can see, but I can see about 75% of his territory:
And here is my domestic advisor for this turn:
Here are my thoughts.
1) Haram, in general, has 4-5 units in each of his threatened cities, with other stacks of units within 1 turn range to reinforce if needed.
2) I have to take eagerday. If I don’t take it, it will forever be a thorn in my side as long as we are at war, and a serious danger if we’re not. All the neutral territory there means haram can move 2-movers quite close to my new cities in that area without my seeing them.
3) Tiflis makes a good target. It’s isolated by a peak on land, so reinforcements can only be built or come by galley and its culture will deny a seafood resource to the new Fox, even when its borders pop.
4) Attacking from Sitatunga, Yak, or Leopard will require significant force superiority because haram has sufficient strategic depth that he will be able to easily reinforce a threatened city and attack my stack before it can get close. So any attack has to be strong enough to absorb that and still carry through and win. Attacking Sanchu from Leopard might be slightly easier because he doesn’t quite have the range to protect both that city and hitshowers with his 2-mover stack. He can strike AFTER the fact, but can do nothing to prevent it, as my last attack on Sanchu showed.
As far as areas I am vulnerable to him…
1) All of my cities have protective units in them, but some of them are obsolete. A few still have warriors. Obviously these are the ones closer to my core, but if haram ever got a force loose in my interior, I would be hurt badly. One reason I’m trying hard to maintain naval superiority.
2) If he focused all of his forces in one place, he could probably push me out. Sitatunga and Yak, while well-defended, would not be able to withstand an attack by the bulk of his army, and he would be able to get it very close, very fast because his culture pushes up right against them.
3) On the other hand, he doesn’t have enough forces to break both of them simultaneously, so focusing on one would give me the opportunity to attack from the other with a high likelihood of success. It would also be hard for him to do this without my noticing the build-up.
4) When he gets cannons, any large stack invading his territory is toast, at least until I get cavalry and rifles, so doing so more than 4 turns from now is extremely risky, and the risk to my two border cities grows a lot as well.
So what I’m thinking I should do is:
1) Build a force to go over and capture eagerday. With forces moving forward to Wildebeest, I can assemble them there and then move out. The problem is that I’m not sure I’ll be able to conclude the attack in 4 turns, given that it will probably take 3 turns to move into attack position.
2) Raze Tiflis. Take 5 galleys, load them with 6 cuirs and 4 maces, and level the city. Right now he has 4 units there – 2 pikes, an archer, and a spear. I can keep him from reinforcing by galley, but he may be able to build a few units before I can get there. I think he may be focusing on building triremes there right now, though.
3) Maybe even offer a peace treaty after one (or both) or the above happen. That would buy me 10 turns to tech and build forces without fear of invasion. Of course, it does the same for haram.
In the long run, though, I either have to finish haram off, or I will be seeing him again.
Commodore wrote some good stuff in his PB13 (I think?) thread about when warfare is sensible and when it's not. Essentially land warfare at equivalent tech or when your opponent has a decent amount of collateral will only drag you both down. Naval warfare on the other hand is a great leveler (as Haram demonstrated ) and with the element of surprise can get you a long way.
As you say: right now the only place you're likely to make progress is Eagerday because it's isolated. But its not *that* isolated and even if you take it it'll be culture-pressed by Seven who will be happy to allow Haram to attack you through his culture. So if you did take it your advantage would be minimal and you'd really need to burn it .
If you've got amphibious units then hitting Tifilis could make sense, but with the culture pressure your gains are minimal again and without amphi units I'd guess your losses will be high.
Your strike on Yak really was the most important element of this war, giving you control of the GJ land that Haram had worked so hard to clear. I think the best outcome for you right now would be peace with Haram, settle that land and tech ahead of him, only coming back to fight again when you're a good tech level ahead of him and have the more powerful naval techs (btw, what are you going to do about the Ironclads he'll have in four turns?) How to get him to agree to a peace treaty is the question though... Perhaps blockading all his southern cities so that they start to starve, then putting a big force by Eagerday, then offering peace might do the trick?
At this point I guess Haram is out of the game, and I don't see you overhauling Seven or Mackoti, so it's not like you're endangering your game, so you should really just do what's fun .
Well, I originally intended to capture eagerday, but now, you're right, I just want to raze it. Same thing with Tiflis (though I never actually intended to capture Tiflis...it was always going to be razed).
I don't have amphibious units, or an easy way to get them. The only units I have getting two promotions out of the gate are my cuirs and wellies, and only in those cities with a stable.
Maybe you are right. I should theoretically be able to tech ahead of him, but to be honest he's been teching better than I would have thought given how much he's had to build militarily, so who knows? In any case, I don't have to worry about Ironclads...he'd have to go down Replaceable Parts->Steam Power (and have coal) before he can get those. I only have to worry about Cannons, and possibly Grens if he goes back to Military Science after finishing Steel.
I also agree that neither one of us is likely to win the game with mackoti and Seven so far ahead. So I think I will follow your advice and seek peace. I'll actually just offer him a peace treaty...I think he'll probably take it as it helps him as well as me. Then focus on building infrastructure and teching.
In world news, haram and Seven both got a Great Scientist, and, if you can believe this, Gawdzak and mackoti signed a DEFENSIVE PACT!? Well, I think they’re both safe from being attacked now.
I began pulling my troops out of haram’s territory, as a show of good faith, and offered him Peace Treaty. We’ll see what he says when he logs in. I even pulled my cuir off of that little silk island without pillaging, so hopefully he’ll take that into account. In fact, I’m thinking that if he accepts peace I may offer a Defensive Pact of my own to him. We’re both unlikely to win, but we can probably hold on longer that way…what do you guys think? (And by you guys, I mean Old Harry, since hardly anyone else responds.) As you pointed out, without a decisive war, continued hostilities just drain both of us while everyone else continues advancing. And it’s unlikely we’ll get a decisive war for a long time. I haven’t stopped producing units yet, but if he accepts peace I’ll probably produce whatever is currently being built and switch to infrastructure and wealth.
I also re-moved my settler back into the GJ void. Whether he accepts peace or not, I’m going to plant him near where GJ’s old capital was, leaving enough space for a filler city (which will be planted in 5 turns) on the northern coast of that section. He’s out of view of haram’s borders right now, so hopefully I get peace and I can surprise him with a new city right afterwards.
In world news, Haram accepted our Peace Treaty, so we have at least 10 turns of peace, and after accepting haram kicked off a GA and adopted Caste System. As a result, he is now 1 turn from Steel. Mackoti is also researching Steel and is 2 turns out.
Someone has a privateer off our coast (yay). My guess is mackoti.
As a result of that, I changed from Rifling to Optics, and am thinking about going down the Astronomy line. Thoughts? We rely heavily on seafood, so a Privateer can do massive damage to our economy right now. Triremes are not much good against them. Of course, that privateer could screw us up well before we get Frigates, but we have to try.
You can also see from that screenshot that we generated a Great Scientist! Currently he’ll bulb part of Education, but I’m not sure if that’s the best use. I will need Education, but I probably won’t get to it for a while, so maybe settling him in Antelope (the capital) might be better? It gets 105% bonus to beakers, so he’d be generating a little over 12 per turn there. Or I could build an academy in Bonobo, my second best science city. At 100% it’s generating 63 raw beakers and currently has +35% science bonus. In strict numbers, probably the academy would be the better deal…an extra 31.5 beakers at 100%. Thoughts? Should I save him for a GA? Seems like a waste since our next GP isn’t due for 22 turns.
I adjusted builds in numerous cities, switching out of units and into infrastructure as needed. A number of our cities are desperate for grocers, markets, banks, wharves and religious buildings. I’m going to keep building units in at least one or two cities on a rotating basis so I don’t fall too far behind and become a juicy target, but no need to go full monty.
I’m also really pissed at myself. I mis-clicked and sent my settler stack to the wrong tile! ARGH! That means instead of planting my new city next turn, I either have to plant it in the wrong place, or lose another turn.
I wanted to plant him 1S of where they are right now. That will still give me pigs, cows and copper while leaving room for a filler city on the north coast that can share pigs, 1W of the coastal ruins. Do you think I should lose the turn, or just plant him and either forget about the filler or accept it’s going to be even lamer. Also note that Seven has two macemen sitting on those hills…not sure why except maybe to make sure no one interferes with is conquest of GJ? Or to make sure GJ doesn’t slip a settler out? I dunno.
I also think I will make Duiker my new HE/WP city. It’s got good production (3rd behind the capital, but the 2nd place city only has 1h more), it’s central to the empire, and it’s not quite as exposed as Fox was, though a 4-move Galleon could reach it from mackoti’s territory in 1 turn. The next best location is 3h weaker in production, though.
Does anyone else have Astronomy and Chemistry? If the Privateer does have ill intentions I wonder why he didn't sit on your seafood already? If it is Mack then offering ~20 gold as a one-off "don't hit my nets" payment might work. Or it might just encourage him to ask for more. He's not the kind of player to show you that without a reason, and he's not likely to give you warning when he strikes (what's his power graph like?) so I wouldn't be too worried about him right now.
Great people is something I'm never happy with my handling of. I'd use him for the bulb or golden age. If you want to know how valuable he'll be as an academy use the break-even number (not 100%) then multiply that number by 1.3 (assuming your arrow bonus and a small known-tech bonus) and compare that over 20-40 turns with the 1800ish beakers you'll get for the bulb... For instance 12 beakers a turn for settling * 1.3 = 15.6 meaning it takes 115 turns for that to catch up with the bulb. And that doesn't even account for inflating costs. If it paid back in under 20 turns I'd do it, if it paid in over 40 I wouldn't, in between its more uncertain. Getting Education quicker means you get Oxford quicker though, which is one of the touch-stones of a good bureaucap.
The miss-click sucks, but I thought you were planning to settle the southern grass hill? What's your dotmap for the area? (Can we have an overview - alt-F - with resource bubbles on?)
Are you specializing your cities? Have you got some on production and some on commerce or are you more hybrid? While some infra is good I don't tend to build Grocers unless my city needs the health bonus - 12.5% boost to the economy of that city just isn't very good for 150 hammers. And I only build Barracks and Stables where I'm going to produce units and nothing else... What do wharves do in this mod? Is it extra commerce?
(November 14th, 2014, 14:47)Old Harry Wrote: Peace in our time!
Does anyone else have Astronomy and Chemistry? If the Privateer does have ill intentions I wonder why he didn't sit on your seafood already? If it is Mack then offering ~20 gold as a one-off "don't hit my nets" payment might work. Or it might just encourage him to ask for more. He's not the kind of player to show you that without a reason, and he's not likely to give you warning when he strikes (what's his power graph like?) so I wouldn't be too worried about him right now.
He has a staggering lead in all categories over everyone but Seven, who's still behind him in everything. I'll post graphs next turn. But it's not a pretty sight. Mackoti has Astronomy and Chemistry, and is working on Steel right now. I have Banking, Theology, and Replaceable Parts on him, so he definitely hasn't made it to Rifles. Seven is actually the furthest ahead technologically right now. Given his power graph, he could probably attack me and hurt me, but except for the naval side of things he doesn't have a technical edge yet. Also since he and Gawdzak just signed a DP, it wouldn't make sense for him to attack and invalidate it just a few turns later.
(November 14th, 2014, 14:47)Old Harry Wrote: Great people is something I'm never happy with my handling of. I'd use him for the bulb or golden age. If you want to know how valuable he'll be as an academy use the break-even number (not 100%) then multiply that number by 1.3 (assuming your arrow bonus and a small known-tech bonus) and compare that over 20-40 turns with the 1800ish beakers you'll get for the bulb... For instance 12 beakers a turn for settling * 1.3 = 15.6 meaning it takes 115 turns for that to catch up with the bulb. And that doesn't even account for inflating costs. If it paid back in under 20 turns I'd do it, if it paid in over 40 I wouldn't, in between its more uncertain. Getting Education quicker means you get Oxford quicker though, which is one of the touch-stones of a good bureaucap.
Excellent point, and that makes a lot of sense. The academy wouldn't even pay off in under 40 turns, so I guess bulb is the best option, especially since he'll provide ~2100 beakers towards Education.
(November 14th, 2014, 14:47)Old Harry Wrote: The miss-click sucks, but I thought you were planning to settle the southern grass hill? What's your dotmap for the area? (Can we have an overview - alt-F - with resource bubbles on?)
I was pondering doing that while at war, but it didn't seem as important to do so now. Now it would be a bit of a drain on my economy and the other spot would be much more productive more quickly. In the screenshot from my update, my plan was to settle 1W of the Copper, but I misclicked to be 1NW of the copper. Either spot would make a decent city, but 1W of the copper leaves more space for a filler city in the north, or the city on the grass hill if I still want to put one there.
(November 14th, 2014, 14:47)Old Harry Wrote: Are you specializing your cities? Have you got some on production and some on commerce or are you more hybrid? While some infra is good I don't tend to build Grocers unless my city needs the health bonus - 12.5% boost to the economy of that city just isn't very good for 150 hammers. And I only build Barracks and Stables where I'm going to produce units and nothing else... What do wharves do in this mod? Is it extra commerce?
Some are specialized, some are not. During the war I optimized production in most of them, but I'm starting to change them back to work more commerce tiles. I'm also planning to start doing some wealth builds, which is why I thought it worthwhile to put grocers/markets/banks in some of my more productive cities. I'm focusing on growth with most of the newer, low-population cities and getting the core builds done (granary, lighthouse for coastal, forge, confucian monestary/temple -- +2h each from AP, courthouse, ikhanda). Barracks for me, though, is worthwhile in every city regardless because of the -20% city maintenance from it being my UB. The stable in Quail was being built for the war, as that city was going to produce cuirs, and since it was already more than half done, it seems better to let it complete than waste the hammers already in it. Including Quail, I only have 5 cities with stables -- the ones who were building cuirs the fastest. So I haven't been overinvesting in them.
Wharves are basically like a Colossus in the city you build it in, so +1c per water tile. They also give +3XP to naval units built there.
No point putting commerce buildings in for wealth - it doesn't get multiplied .
Keeping building Cuirs isn't a bad idea - they aren't expensive to upgrade...
Thinking about the miss-click city I think it's a bit of an improvement over your original placement. You get food first-ring, it lets you settle the grass hill down south if you need to secure that border (which I think you do) and still fit in a coastal city (or two!) up north.
) and with the element of surprise can get you a long way.
. 
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Well, I think they’re both safe from being attacked now.
We’re both unlikely to win, but we can probably hold on longer that way…what do you guys think? (And by you guys, I mean Old Harry, since hardly anyone else responds.) As you pointed out, without a decisive war, continued hostilities just drain both of us while everyone else continues advancing. And it’s unlikely we’ll get a decisive war for a long time. I haven’t stopped producing units yet, but if he accepts peace I’ll probably produce whatever is currently being built and switch to infrastructure and wealth.
