(August 31st, 2013, 06:09)Jowy Wrote: You're not thinking. I was online at the deadline. Gaz made his vote 10 minutes before the deadline, I had plenty of time to change my vote if I wanted to. Are you really not understanding this, or are you trying to downplay the importance of my vote in order to set me up for a miss-lynch later?
I was analysing your post at the time you made it, and thus independatnt of his post. Of course you were on at the end, but such a switch would have been soooo scummy that there's no way you could've done it. 2 hrs earlier, but jumping on and off within 2-3 minutes of each other? That's so implausible its not worth considering, and would have been very obviously scum saving scum.
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(August 31st, 2013, 06:09)Jowy Wrote: You're not thinking. I was online at the deadline. Gaz made his vote 10 minutes before the deadline, I had plenty of time to change my vote if I wanted to. Are you really not understanding this, or are you trying to downplay the importance of my vote in order to set me up for a miss-lynch later?
I was analysing your post at the time you made it, and thus independatnt of his post. Of course you were on at the end, but such a switch would have been soooo scummy that there's no way you could've done it. 2 hrs earlier, but jumping on and off within 2-3 minutes of each other? That's so implausible its not worth considering, and would have been very obviously scum saving scum.
Okay I see your point, hadn't thought of it like that. Though I think if I was playing scum, I would have waited until the very last moment to cast my vote so I would have never been in that situation.
Haven't re-read yet with the new implications in mind, but I was wondering about Azarius' silence and checked out some of his more recent posts. I figured he might just be busy and that's why he posts so little and doesn't have much content, but then I found this gem:
(August 29th, 2013, 16:44)Azarius Wrote: For someone short of time, he sure accomplished almost nothing with what time he does have. On days when I was short of time for this last game, I tried to use what time I did have to address important questions and get across my views on things as best I could. All he seems to be doing here is checking in like it's an obligation to appear active.
It's funny how these things work out. I don't think he has followed his own advice.
And btw it's worded in a way that says he was busy last game but isn't this game. So that kinda answers the question of whether he's busy or just choosing to not post.
I agree with Jowy's take on who's scum, I think Q's analysis is overthinking things.
Town leans:
zakalwe, Jowy, novice - decisive votes on MJW
jkaen - voted MJW, and I already had a town lean from his posts
Qgqqqqq - MJW's strongest pursuer
Mattimeo - MJW's target and alternative lynch option
So that leaves Azza, Azarius and Gazglum. Out of these I don't think Azza comes across as especially scummy after rereading his posts as summarized by Q here.
This post:
(August 29th, 2013, 04:42)Azza Wrote:
(August 29th, 2013, 04:12)zakalwe Wrote:
(August 29th, 2013, 04:03)Gazglum Wrote: Incidentally, isn't that how Ichabod plays the opening of every game?
Could be, but what's your point?
I would guess his point is that to achieve a D1 lynch you have to portray a confidence in your read that will inspire people to follow.
leads me to believe that Azza and Gazglum are not scum together. It goes against scum instincts to answer questions for your scumbuddies - better to propose an answer in the quicktopic.
Gazglum's recent post OTOH does nothing to convince me that he isn't scum buddies with Azarius.
(August 30th, 2013, 17:11)Gazglum Wrote:
(August 30th, 2013, 16:51)novice Wrote:
(August 30th, 2013, 08:30)novice Wrote:
Gazglum Wrote:Azarius - Neutral leaning to town. Don't have much to say about him - he's been quietish, but reasonable seeming. No scum tells after that post I talked abotu Day 1, and that was pretty weak anyway. Probably deserves another look sometime.
I have to do my own review on Azarius, but if your description of "quietish, but reasonable seeming" is correct that's a bit of a warning light.
Have you read this, Gazglum? What do you think?
I'm going to need to go back from scratch and reread knowing MJW's alignment, but yes, Azarius is a question mark now. You and Zak and Q and Jkaen all look fairly good now (Q the most, Zak the least trustworthy for me), and it looks like Jowy righted his ship somewhat last night, though I'm still unsure on him.
My gut is still that Mattimeo is bad, but I'd need to think about if the lynch votes make sense if it was wolf vs wolf. If Mattimeo is a wolf though, then the third wolf would have realised that someone was going down anyway, so might have suddenly jumped in full throated support onto one of the candidates. So I'm less sure than Jowy that no sacrifice was made.
MJW stressing that he was being forced to defence vote Mattimeo is a point towards Matt's innocence though, as it reads like MJW disavowing responsibililty for a mislynch.
So yes, maybe Azarius or Azza. Or maybe my instincts were right and it is Jowy or Matt - Jowy's turnaround could have been due to coaching from the QT. I'll have to rethink for now.
So from a game-theoretic viewpoint Azarius should be lynched next. I haven't reread his posts though. My Gazglum suspicions are also back in full bloom, if I were to follow my instincts right now I would lynch Gazglum.
We should of course reread the thread looking for interaction tells between MJW and others.
(August 30th, 2013, 13:50)zakalwe Wrote: I'll put my vote on Azza for now. There's his post yesterday against Mattimeo, being quiet today, and justifying his final vote by elimination, with a kind of argument that is very easy to manipulate into yielding the result that he wants. And it's a logical alternative to Mattimeo, since they've been accusing each other.
Didn't like this post. Waited til I wasn't going to be online before pushing a case against me, and suggested I'd been unusually quiet which I'd strongly disagree with.
I agree that its bad timing, but I'd definitely say you've been unusually quiet. Perhaps its simply that you've scaled down according to number of players, but you haven't been posting as much as (/or as content-filled as) you normally do (IMO).
I like how you considered a perfectly logical explanation in your post, and still completely ignore it. The less players alive, the less I talk. Happens every single game.
By the way I thought I remembered something about Serdoa and skimmed through his posts. His suspects on day one were MJW, Gazglum and JKaen. He argued pretty strongly for these three.
(August 27th, 2013, 02:28)Serdoa Wrote: MJW
(August 27th, 2013, 10:38)Serdoa Wrote: [...] Gazglum is a wolf [...] Jkaen
On night one he criticized me, Zak and Q as well. He didn't seem to suspect Azarius.
I don't necessarily have anything to conclude from that but I may as well share my research findings.
I'm not a scumbo Novice, but I'm happy to argue that with you tomorrow. Tired and smell of cigarette smoke now.
While you're on, I'd like to ask you about Zak. Basicalyl every move you've made this game, he's come in straight behind you and parroted it. Often without even providing any reasoning at the time. I'm not rereading now, but I think he copied you on the possibility of lynching Serdoa, on voting me start of Day 2, on pressuring Jowy, and finally on switching votes to MJW at the end of the day. If Zak is scum looking to play a long game, I think he would be willing to bus MJW, and do it early enough to get town credit. After all, it wasn't likely MJW was going to last that many more days as it is.
You know Zak's style better than any of us. Is it normal for him to buddy you so closely? If not, do you think the effect might be to put him in your blind spot? You've not really mentioned him at all this game except as a town lean.
I'm not saying I think Zak is at the top of my suspect list all of a sudden, but he's starting to move up the order a bit by elimination, and before you potentially suffer an elimination of your own I'd like to hear your thoughts.
And I agree that Azarius looks a bit bad by a process of elimination too, but I didn't want to make fresh accusations against him without rereading, which is why my response to you may have seemed a bit hedging.
Nicely done on MJW, I admit I didn't see him as scum. He always seems so all over the board to me, it's hard for me to tell where he is coming from. Going to get myself caught up now.
(August 30th, 2013, 10:01)Azza Wrote: So, my vote is pretty much process of elimination. Gazglum I strongly lean town, Jkaen slight town lean, Azarius no current suspicion. Zak and novice I can't get a read on so far because the arguments exchanged with MJW and Jowy are a chore to try to read. At this stage, I can't distinguish between which of those two is more likely to be disruptive scum and disruptive villager. Don't like Qgqqqqq, but can't justify voting for him, particularly when there's no clear support. So that leaves Mattimeo, who hasn't sat right with the things he's been saying.
Not great logic, but it seems the best way to go today.
Azza, why does Gazglum get a strong town read from you here?
