Why did Serdoa say my scum reads were untrustworthy Day 1?
“The wind went mute and the trees in the forest stood still. It was time for the last tale.”
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WW29: Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
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Well good job there Jowy. I wish you had waited one more night before revealing so you could have scanned me but if even if you waste a few mislynch on me we are solid.
With out a closer read I will go to Meiz right now based on the Jkaen kill. But I will read more in the morning. Of the confirmed town I trust Lewwyn to have the best reads so that is a point against Zakalwe. They come unendorsed by Serdoa. (November 3rd, 2013, 16:05)Jowy Wrote: I'm the seer, and I've checked Lewwyn and Mattimeo, who are both villagers. I was going to reveal today anyway, but Lewwyn beat me to it. I decided to go for one more reading since Lewwyn cleared himself and the vote was drifting towards MJW. But now MJW has left the game and I doubt I could steer the vote to anyone non-confirmed. Let's look at the list of players remaining (confirmed villagers in blue): Okay. You have claimed seer. Nobody has counter claimed so I believe you. That clears Lewwyn who was not getting heat for not voting Serdoa because he was asleep. That clears Mattimeo who lurks all over the place. And that clears you who was stubbornly persisting on this retarded crusade to lynch me while the ambush happened. I will let you in on a secret for why I did not vote for Serdoa. I was not on line during the seven minutes from nothing to Serdoa majority. That is all. It is as simple as that. That is the pure truth. What possible logic are you using to claim I am mafia with Serdoa? He voted for me to hang over MJW. For a weak reason sure but it was near the deadline. He had every reason to believe he was killing me. This is despite him all day making it very clear he was keeping his options open and casting aspersions on MJW. Which is the reason. I. Was. Pushing. Him. As. Mafia. All. Day. I can not see any rational reason for him to push me if I was mafia. But I am town. So he was saving a town by mislynching a town which makes some sense. Jowy you are cleared town but and your role is seer but your person is still fool. And you just admitted you did not scan me clear for one reason. You spitefully want to mislynch me even if it hurts our chances at winning. We will probably still win because as you said the math is on our side. But this is terrible terrible play. So Serdoas friend must be in his voters. But it happened very fast. Maybe his friend did not expect for any one to jump off of me and so Serdoa would be okay? It seems risky but it is the only thing that makes sense. Now on to people I can engage with working brains. Zakalwe how do you square the above logic with me being mafia? Meiz you have made very little impression on me so far seeming to mostly hover on the edges. What are your thoughts in the new town heavy world we live in?
For me it's down to novice, zakalwe and GoreRipper
Two of these went after Serdoa during the day. One of them attacked basically everyone except Serdoa. Until the last minute vote that is. Zakalwe He went from "Good post by serdoa", http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431437 To "kill" him in the last minute with no explanation. GoreRipper would have died without MJW voting.
Some defense first, and then I'll see if I can explain why Goreripper feels like plausible scum. I'll say up front that Meiz also feels like pretty plausible scum, though. But maybe we can share the load and Goreripper can explain why that is so.
(November 3rd, 2013, 18:52)Lewwyn Wrote: Well at least I was right that Jowy changed his playstyle and was being careful and weird. You're giving yourself credit for making an accurate read here. It shouldn't be so strange that I agreed with you on that read. If you could see it, why shouldn't I be able to, after you pointed it out to me? This is in the same vein as your attack on me over "I need to think about it". Basically you're expecting me to be more dismissive of other players' opinions than what I actually am. You have the wrong baseline for me. (As an aside; you actually call me scum in *every single game* that I'm town. So you really do have the wrong baseline for me. In this particular situation I concede that it's not irrational to suspect me, though. But that doesn't mean that I've been scummy, and I maintain that I haven't.) (November 3rd, 2013, 18:58)Lewwyn Wrote: Why did Serdoa say my scum reads were untrustworthy Day 1? This is a pretty good question, and I don't have an answer for it at this time. You did list Goreripper as another suspect, but that was earlier in the day. So maybe it was just part of his buddying routine, or maybe there was some deeper strategic objective. But if so, I can't point to it right now. (November 3rd, 2013, 18:52)Lewwyn Wrote: Given both Jowy and matt cleared, I guess I have to suspect that Serdoa was possibly bussed. Zak crossposted with MJW. Zak could have been trying to tie the vote at 4-4 but still have Goreripper lynched. He didn't count on MJW switching as well. He thought he could get credit without actually killing Serdoa off. That fits with Zakalwe's scum play. (November 4th, 2013, 01:00)Meiz Wrote: He went from "Good post by serdoa", http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431437 I voted for Serdoa because I thought he was a better lynch than Goreripper. Mainly due to his vote for Goreripper, which I agreed was over-justified. I also had a gut feeling that Serdoa was too active compared to his stated real-life distractions. In other words, if he was innocent, he would feel better about just letting the game slide and wouldn't be stepping up his activity towards the deadline, like he was doing. Kind of an ugly meta-thought that last part, so I didn't voice it publicly. (Besides, we had the lynch result before I had the chance to make a real post anyway, so there was no real need to elaborate.)
If you know what I mean.
(November 3rd, 2013, 23:39)Goreripper Wrote: What possible logic are you using to claim I am mafia with Serdoa? He voted for me to hang over MJW. For a weak reason sure but it was near the deadline. He had every reason to believe he was killing me. This is despite him all day making it very clear he was keeping his options open and casting aspersions on MJW. Which is the reason. I. Was. Pushing. Him. As. Mafia. All. Day. I can not see any rational reason for him to push me if I was mafia. But I am town. So he was saving a town by mislynching a town which makes some sense. Ok, in short I think it is an overstatement to say that you were pushing Serdoa all day long. You did mention him as one of three players biting on the MJW lynchbait, so you get points for that, but you didn't vote for him right away. When Novice voted for Serdoa you did immediately follow. Makes sense to do that, as insurance, and you had just mentioned him as a suspect so it could have looked odd if you didn't. At that point you wouldn't want to switch off Serdoa until you were given a good reason to do so, but the only other candidate with real traction was me, and you had already decided to read me as innocent, so you couldn't follow that. Eventually, once the deadline was starting to loom, you came up with a kind of OMGUS attack on Jowy which was pretty weak and also arguably out of character for you, since you have displayed an admirable ability to separate between bad and scummy play earlier. Serdoa was casting aspersions on MJW, but like Novice said, you could read his play towards the end of the day as not quite daring to go through with it, and instead hoping others would see the lynch through. He never said a bad word about you until he voted for you in the end, and at that point he over-justified his vote. Obviously once you do decide to bus your buddy you want to make it clear that you really suspect your buddy to maximize the credit you get. When Serdoa did enter the stage, in the vote consolidation phase, he tried making a case against Jkaen. He then listed his lynch preferences as Jkaen -> Meiz -> Jowy / Goreripper -> Mattimeo / novice -> MJW / zakalwe / Lewwyn. So if his buddy is Meiz, he was basically gambling that people would follow him on Jkaen, or that nobody would want to lynch Meiz. If his buddy is you, then he gave himself up to three players he would prefer to lynch before you. Like I said earlier, it felt a bit off that he listed Meiz as his #2 here. You could read that as being eager to get in some distancing, but it seems at least equally likely that he was fishing for lynch candidates. I don't think anybody had stated a town read Meiz, so he could have been a viable compromise candidate. Look at my play when I was scum with Q and MJW, for example. (WW27 or something.) We bussed MJW on day 2; I never said a bad word about MJW until the time came to bus him, and then I suddenly saw the light and found his play really scummy. Leading up to that, though, I tried my best to shrug him off as probable innocent, even though he was attacking me. So that is also another point in my defense: if I were scum here, I would probably throw in at least a one-liner about something scummy Serdoa had done when I voted for him, instead of just saying "Ok". Anyway, Serdoa acted similarly here: ignoring your attack until the end, probing for other targets, and then suddenly finding you very scummy near the deadline. As a general side note - if people believe I was busing Serdoa, they should also consider the possibilities that Serdoa was busing Goreripper or Meiz was busing Serdoa. It's clear that someone did a good job of getting/providing cover yesterday, no matter who is scum. Like I've been saying, Meiz probably deserves some attention too. But hopefully the above serves to explain why Goreripper isn't cleared. About Meiz, I've been having a persistent feeling that one of my day 1 voters ought to be scum, and he's the only one left. So if he's scum, that explains why Serdoa buddied up to me. If Goreripper is the scum, it means that I had three townies on my case, and both of the scum decided to buddy up to me. Sounds a bit weird at first, but it's still possible. Having me on their side would certainly be nice. They might even be thinking that I'd help pull Novice over on their side, too. Given that there's no day talking, that's probably a bit too complicated, though, since they had to come up with their own strategy as the day progressed. But maybe Serdoa felt it was a poor tactical choice to turn the day into him vs. me, which would have been the result if he started suspecting me when we were tied 3-3.
If you know what I mean.
(November 4th, 2013, 01:00)Meiz Wrote: One of them attacked basically everyone except Serdoa. Until the last minute vote that is. Upon rereading it, this feels a bit over-aggressive coming from you. It's not really accurate, so you're reaching to make sure I will be seen as more scummy you. I got the same vibe of slight over-aggressiveness when you were attacking me on day 1. You usually don't push your cases with such great conviction. And in our current situation, when the game is all but won, so long as we don't mess up royally, I'd expect a bit of caution and careful evaluation from you.
If you know what I mean.
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