[Civforum PB90] Cornflakes Ventures Out of the Realms Beyond, and into the Unknown

[Cornflakes]

There was a lion on the copper a few turns ago so that landmass is at least large enough to spawn barbs (not sure what the minimum size threshold is).

[Cornflakes]

Our neighbors have settled on their copper. This may be a short game …

[Cornflakes]

Our neighbors have settled on their copper. This may be a short game …

Actually I went back in the PBSpy log, and his mid-turn score increase was on T38 (6 turns ago). So he settled adjacent to copper and connected it this turn.

[Cornflakes]

Sailing is in reach! We are about to escape from the island 

   

We will be able to settle on T53 either on the copper hill or 1E on flatland (copper connected T56 with both workers). The two German workboats which continuously monitor my position make me nervous. I am keeping an eye on the power graph to watch for axes. The snowball will be greatly accelerated by founding 1E ... I can 2x chop the granary at size 2, have the 6-yield copper to work indefinitely, get an additional forest in the 1st ring, and pick up several more tiles that can be cottaged.

The obvious weaknesses are 3 turns later to copper, and long-term vulnerability of flatland cities. On the other hand, I already was forced into a flatland capital and the cows up north only have flatland options so a naval assault will already have soft targets. Therefore my leaning is towards the flatland city in order to accelerate development, and use that development to achieve future control over the seas.

For medium-term planning:

• There are 130 land tiles per player. We can currently "see" 61 land tiles (including 1 ring of fog), and 48 of those are on "our" side of the ice and tundra. So our territory should be about twice what we can currently see.
  
• Traits are IND/CHA. IND is one of my favorite traits for the cheap forges, so Metal Casting is a priority. Is it the first priority? Do we pursue Oracle as an option? We are probably 15 turns away though on a direct path to Oracle after Sailing, and someone founded Buddhism 5 turns ago. The risk/reward is not favorable.
  
• Do we focus expansion of the next couple cities on the northern landmass? Or split our attention to the south? From a logistics perspective, focusing solely on the north makes sense. Our workers will be there already. Cities can share tiles. Our starting island can support the mainland militarily via galley, without having to build a second galley. We could potentially gain superiority on the continent over neighbors who split their attention in multiple directions.
  
• Long-term, Nationalism + Gunpowder would allow us to draft 2-mover Musketeers. But that is much too far away to plan at this point. We will need to absorb at least 1-2 neighbors before that. From what I have seen at CivForum, catapult/axe attacks are very popular. At RB the Horse Archer attack is popular, but horses aren't guaranteed here.
  
• In this game I suspect the dynamics will be different than the typical game due to the island/naval aspect ... logistics will be even more key to successful attacks than in the typical game. I will be easy to get caught off guard with an island or split-mainland holding isolated, and conversely there may be more opportunity than typical for sniping isolated areas without investing in total conquest.
  
• Astronomy [double?] bulb may be advisable. Should we start working scientists early?
  
• I am interested to see the comparison between players like Mr. X who went for an early Sailing to break off the island quickly, versus starts like mine which picked up Pottery for granaries and cottages first. I'll have a few extra turns of cottage growth, but the early sailing folks make up for that by getting IC trade routes earlier. 
  
• Will my weak 2nd city ultimately be a drag? Would it have been better to let the capital stay larger and work more tiles, and then whip heavier once Sailing was completed? I think the extra build queue coupled with the higher CHA happy cap and a granary will allow the 2nd city to be an overall boost on the snowball. I can whip that 2nd location mercilessly either for settlers or axes, and ultimately trade most of the tiles back to the capital in the mid game.
  

Strategy thoughts, based on the above:

• Basically I'm envisioning the rough strategy as a strong presence on the northern landmass. Focus in one direction, rather than splitting attention.
  
• Research Animal Husbandry next ... will be needed near-term anyway for the cows, and will let us target our expansion to pick up horses.
  
• Keep eyes open for opportunities to snipe cities on the northern landmass. Strike quickly without hesitation. Reinforcement and recapture will require galley transportation and either amphibious attack, or landing which gives us even more time to respond. Their transportation capacity will be limited by galley count, whereas we can reinforce from other mainland cities.
  
• Tech path: Sailing > Animal Husbandry > [HBR or Metal Casting?, but save gold before kicking off research]
  

[Cornflakes]

The game is finally getting interesting We located the German homeland this turn, and will get sailing end of turn. The micro works out nicely such that the overflow from the settler will be just enough to complete the granary at Orleans on the following turn, with foodbox at optimum level for filling the granary. And Paris will still have enough food surplus to grow back to size 4 on same turn we 2-whip the galley from 5 > 3. The chop + galley whip overflow  will get us to 40/100 on a follow-up settler and let us 2-whip and get our 4th city founded about 4-ish turns after our 3rd city is founded, depending on how far inland I send it.

   

Mr. X started with sea access on the southwest side of his island so presumably his copper and 2nd city are in the southwest direction. I'm slightly jealous of the silver because Mr. X gets an additional commerce from the tile in addition to starting with the tech that allowed him to improve it and his deer. Also the obvious synergy between metal luxuries and IND forges ... I will have to draw up an EvilPlot™ sooner rather than later [not that I will actually execute the plot but I am at least obliged to tease out a plan]

[Cornflakes]

@Tarkeel, I'll be on vacation July 1-10. Would you be able to cover the turns during that time period?

[Tarkeel]

Yeah, I think so. Don't have any concrete plans for that period (yet)

[Cornflakes]

Settler is on the galley! Unfortunately the lion is still wandering the area and may hinder our landing. Fingers crossed! 2 more turns until our 3rd city is founded.

[Cornflakes]

The lion cooperated and I landed the warrior and settler. Also picked up both workers. Workboat is in place for next turn.

I could have 2-whipped the follow-up settler this turn, but the workers will have a couple turns of minion and roading copper, and I still need a couple extra turns to finish Animal Husbandry as well in order to pasture the cow. Meanwhile those 2 pop can continue working cottages. Also my warrior can battle the lion on defense in a forest without also defending the settler, and I can get my 2nd warrior across as insurance.

[Cornflakes]

Settled our 3rd city, our first on the mainland!

   

Settling revealed additional info about our surroundings including a 2nd ring cow to the east. The inland regions are inhospitable mountainous and glacial regions. I can't tell if the mountain range is solid and impassible or if there is a pass on the diagonal 3NE of the warrior. I'm planning to move the warrior NE next turn, and from there need to decide whether to go southeast to check for coastal seafood at the eastern cows (for settlement on the eastern peninsula) or northwest. *IF* there is a coastal seafood then eastern peninsula site has a couple additional advantages:

• Cows are riverside for +1 commerce
  
• Cows can be swapped between the cities for optimum micro.
  
• Riverside grass mine can be shared between the two cities
  
• We can explore another sea with a workboat and meet new neighbors / scheme their demise earlier
  

   

Demographics after settling are ... not encouraging. The one bright spot is that top GNP number includes Stonehenge culture, but counterbalancing this the fact that I have been assuming at least a couple CRE rivals would be inflating our GNP standing ... but running down the list on PBSpy this morning I didn't see a single CRE leader listed That was unexpected. I guess that makes sense though for the mapmakers, CRE would be a huge advantage with access to that 2nd ring fish from the early game.