WW29: Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

[Meiz]

How does that implicate me?

[novice]

How does that implicate me?

For me, it implicates you by elimination. I guess a more correct statement would have been that the bolded part implicated that Goreripper is innocent, which in my mind means you're scum.

[zakalwe]

And what did Serdoa say about Meiz? What was his reaction when you mentioned suspecting Meiz? (Honest questions)

I don't think he said much about Meiz at all until he listed him as his #2 suspect, when prodded by Lewwyn to list his preferences.

I could be giving Meiz too much credit for his Serdoa vote.

This is the tally at post 221, when Serdoa made his big post and still had not voted:

3 votes: Goreripper (novice, Mattimeo, Jowy)
2 votes: Mattimeo (Lewwyn, Meiz)
1 votes: Zak (MJW (ya that one))
1 votes: Lewwyn (zakalwe)
1 votes: Serdoa (Jkaen)
1 votes: Jowy (Goreripper)

Voting history:

zak

goreripper

GoreRipper

Lewwyn

Zak

Serdoa

Serdoa

zakalwe

Zakalwe

Serdoa

Novice

Goreripper

Goreripper

Meiz

Lewwyn

Mattimeo

Mattimeo

Zakalwe

Goreripper

Jowy

GoreRipper

So if it's not Goreripper, he had basically nothing to fear. Even if I'm his scumbuddy, I was in the clear at this point. And if it's Meiz, likewise. And Jkaen had the lone vote on him but hadn't been on-line in a long time.

So why did he buddy me so much at this point? It's not like I needed saving, if I'm his scumbuddy. In short, either he is on very thin ice at this point and needs to save Goreripper, or everything is looking dandy and he's just playing for the long term. Would he list Meiz as his #2 suspect at this point, if everything was looking dandy? Possibly, but it seems a bit like tempting fate. On the other hand, would he not show more interest in lynching Mattimeo, if Goreripper was his buddy? (Thinking out loud here.)

[zakalwe]

Even if I'm his scumbuddy, I was in the clear at this point.

Ok, I forgot that Lewwyn and Meiz were voting for Mattimeo but also looked willing to switch back to me. So strike the part about me being safe.

[Meiz]

This is exactly what I was going after, you bolded a part and said that it implicates me as scum, which was clearly faulty logic. That doesn't show town mindset of genuinely suspecting me, rather like you just wanted to push the developing case against me a bit further.

[novice]

I also obviously disagree with mattimeo with me being anti-town.

You kind of are on the surface but I like what someone either Gaspar or Lewwyn said about lynchbait. You are classic lynchbait. Your obvious contradictions and crazy theories give mafia something to hit.

Serdoa and Jkaen bit on the lynchbait craziness. Zakalwe did too but at least he was defending himself.

First accusation against Serdoa on day 1. By Goreripper.

The person most deserving of my vote at the moment is Serdoa. His only contribution so far has been to accuse MJW of being behind a scum plot to get the village talking at night.

MJW is indeed classic lynchbait but plays to this as scum too. However, I do think his "I won't let meta clear me" post is unlikely to come from scum, ironically.

I want to see more from Lewwyn but I guess he's currently stuck behind the great firewall of China.

Serdoa works. He seems to smart for bait.

I vote Serdoa, Goreripper follows.

Zakalwe chatting a lot at night gives him a town lean to me. He got killed very early last game so he seems like a town who wants to contribute fast before he dies this time.

Possibly. It's also possible he wanted to feel out the village for the right night kill.
Why are you in a rush to state this? And why is it in its own little post??

I had the thought during the night but the last thing we want to do is clear a strong town during the night. Like you said if Zakalwe looked like a strong town then he was probably top target.

The post after that post is his Zak post which comes out of nowhere. That rings my bell. There is no prompting, it is one line, and it is just so odd. Could he be buddying up? Could he be trying to help Zak? Is this a case of reverse distancing where Goreripper says "a wolf would never do that"? Could he think that Zakalwe is a fellow town and does not want to see him mislynched?

I think you left out one of the possibilities. Its the last one there.

I think the word you are looking for after Rowains death is not forced. It is annoyed. He tosses a dark look but does not make a clear case.

My town lean on Zakalwe aside I would like to hear his thoughts on Jkaen. And I would like to hear some sober thoughts from Jkaen too when he can he is the other guy attacking the lynchbait.

But I want to hear from Serdoa even more.

Defense post, and adds pressure on Serdoa.

Rowain was the one questioning GoreRipper, and now he's dead. GoreRipper had a motive to kill Rowain first, and Rowain must have sensed it since he pointed his suspicions at GoreRipper just before the night ended. Looks quite bad for GoreRipper, obviously enchanced by the fact that Rowain called him out, but scum couldn't have known that Rowain would call both his death and his killer.

Agreed. Rowain was prodding GoreRipper and it was obvious that he would not forget about it on next day. I doubt scum had time to react to Rowain's "no.1 suspect" post, so the timing of his death seems perfect for GoreRipper.

There is also motivation for both Zak and novice. Rowain has genuine issues with them being together in a game, and is likely to attack either one. So it would not only be Zak being angry about the last game.

I do not get this whole motive thing. Rowain was questioning me some. That is perfectly fair and I think I responded to his actual questions that were asked. I wish he had been able to actually make a case but as it is all we got was a bad feeling. I agree the last game upset Zakalwe like I said it is why I think he was so talkative last night. But I also would question any motivation cases on Zakalwe here.

More useful is a look at general principles. Why is would they want to kill Rowain? Probably not to frame anybody it is too early for that but hey it might be a nice side effect for them. More likely it was because he was an active player who was less likely to be protected than his listed four scary names. Or else he looked cleared to them but he did not seem amazingly town in particular. Only conclusion I have from that is that the mafia are sane but that only clears MJW.

While there are plenty of reasons for the kill (Rowain simply being active and good villager), there's no denying that you wouldn't have motivation to kill him as scum.

Are you saying that suspecting Zak for having a motivation to kill Rowain is something we should ignore? Why?

kill a target that is a good kill anyway

If he was a good kill anyway (I agree that he was, because he was active and not scummy) then his death hardly implicates me. I don't think it does much to implicate Goreripper, either. He did suspect MJW earlier in the day, though, so if you're so eager to pursue this line of thought you shouldn't overlook that.

Same question to Zak. I get that if you're villager, you don't see the implication for yourself. But why do you think suspecting GoreRipper on having the motivation is something we should ignore?


----

Other than that, I really like what Lewwyn has contributed so far. Especially his accusation on Zak here (my underlining):

I am not trying to say we should lynch zak because he lived through the night. My suspicion of him rests entirely with zak saying he was interested in jkaen's theory and that he was going to think about it when in fact that theory was completely, completely ridiculous. Village zak would have shot it down. Scum zak doesn't want to hinder a Jkaen on MJW crusade. Village zak also knows that MJW is ridiculous and prone to the exact stream of conscious thought posts and meta posts that MJW made at the beginning of the game.

Zakalwe

I'm also getting villager vibes from Jowy and MJW.

Meiz OTOH pushes Goreripper and Zakalwe based on Rowain's death and Lewwyn's hook.

Jkaen then votes Serdoa here http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431028

And we have this tally:

Tally as of post 133:

3 votes: Serdoa (novice, Goreripper, Jkaen)
2 votes: zakalwe (Lewwyn, Meiz)
1 votes: Zak (MJW (ya that one))
1 votes: GoreRipper (Jowy)
1 votes: Novice (zakalwe)

Voting history:

zak

goreripper

GoreRipper

Lewwyn

Zak

Serdoa

Serdoa

zakalwe

Zakalwe

Serdoa

Novice

This would be a good time to put on the brakes if Goreripper doesn't want to bus Serdoa.

So i guess right now I see Serdoa and Meiz as scummiest

I like Jkaen's post that concludes with the above, as it's the same shortlist I arrived at earlier when generously eliminating suspects until I was left with only two. I'm willing to give Serdoa a bit more time to contribute before I vote to lynch him, though. He just hasn't given me enough to read him as town yet. If he's town and finds the time to step it up a little, I think it may shine through. (I'm not saying we can't lynch him today. But I don't feel like voting for him right now.)

Meiz really hasn't been convincing, either. If he's town I guess his story is essentially the same as Lewwyn's; he's confident in MJW being town and therefore wants to lynch me. But I can definitely see him as scum, too. He may have been on thin ice with his no night talking stance yesterday. It did feel a little like he was having to improvise some arguments there. And it seems unlike him to build cases based on the night kill, when it should be easy to see that the night kill tells us very little.

Part of the reason I voted for Novice was because I noticed he was setting up a trap for Goreripper, which he has now sprung. His question/accusation against Goreripper is perfectly reasonable, but it's the same style of scumhunting that he applied in WW28 on day 2, and also the same that I applied then, for that matter. Look for a logical inconsistency and seize on it. Meanwhile, he's giving us very little in terms of impressions and feelings. Of course, that's very similar to how he plays as town, too, so it's pretty tenuous, but he does tend to sprinkle in some gut reads as town. Anyway, that's why I asked for more active play from him. The "set a trap and wait" scumhunting style is too easy to emulate, and it makes me uncomfortable when that is all I see from him.

As already mentioned, Goreripper is spot on his village baseline in terms of tone, IMO. It's hard to say how much to emphasize that, since he could be an excellent scum player for all we know, but it is at least a little reassuring. He did have a couple of posts about night talking that felt a bit shaky, but I'll still need some more convincing to vote for him.

Including this because to show Zak's thoughts on Meiz and Goreripper, and to point out who jkaen's top two suspects were.

By the way Serdoa take your time please family is definitely more important than a silly forum game.

But.

With a lazy lynch I mean the common phenomenon here at RB that the town ends up killing the easiest to lynch target instead of the scummiest target, just because it's so hard to reach a consensus. I know that it's a team game and compromises need to be made, but lately the town has just been losing and losing, something needs to change in how we play.

I haven't voted yet for that reason Jowy. I don't have the time currently to read through all posts thoroughly but I very deliberately did not rush to vote MJW at the start of the day, despite my night-"vote".

Reads to me like a frustrated mafia who planned on making a good solid lynchbait case but is getting called on it.

You are a strong town player normally so prove me wrong by all means after reading. But you seem more mafia than Zakalwe to me so my vote stays for now.

OK, Goreripper is not putting on the brakes. Bussing, then?

Rowain said zak is safe from his kill, since hasn't got gun or claws. He'd still have his vote

And where are the indications that Rowain suspected me at all? This argument is inane and you should know it.

I didn't say Rowain had any suspicion against you, just said that it would be more likely for him to point his attention towards you or novice in the following days. Keep a more close eye on both of you so to speak.

Meiz really hasn't been convincing, either. If he's town I guess his story is essentially the same as Lewwyn's; he's confident in MJW being town and therefore wants to lynch me. But I can definitely see him as scum, too. He may have been on thin ice with his no night talking stance yesterday. It did feel a little like he was having to improvise some arguments there. And it seems unlike him to build cases based on the night kill, when it should be easy to see that the night kill tells us very little.

Why are you so eager on shutting down the speculation regarding the night kill? It might not tell anything for certain, but it would be stupid to ignore it. Sure, you're one of the targets but for example were you not interested at all on putting pressure against GoreRipper due to Rowain dying? It's day 1 and there's not yet much to go on for, so putting pressure on people is where we get tells.

@Jkaen, my opinion regarding night talking was not strong and I'm not generally against it. Day 0 was a special case and I figured we wouldn't get any scum reads of anyone, since there was nothing to accuse anyone of. So it would have been more likely that we just point scum towards the optimal kill. On next night we have the Day 1 to discuss, so I'm not opposed we use the time to do it.

Meiz keeps beating the Zakalwe drum though.

Now, since you insist on speculating about it, consider this. I had Rowain in my back pocket last game, while Lewwyn was the scum player who Rowain was actually on to. So maybe your highly trusted Lewwyn would have more to fear from Rowain? This isn't a strong argument against Lewwyn, but I'd say it's at least as good as your argument against me.

Fair enough. There's couple of reasons why I'm leaning town on Lewwyn though. Generally he's known to activate on day 2 and forward as town and scum as well. Here he posts regarding his internet issues, which would be a nice excuse to stay quiet. So it surprised me when he started making long posts with IMO genuine looking thought process & suspicions.

Novice seems to be lurking a bit. I'm not sure if that is his style. He's only true attack was against goreripper. He did vote serdoa for not posting and me for being inane but those attacks are weak. I think Zak is saying that he suspects novice for playing like a survivor. But that doesn't mean much as novice always plays like a survivor like in ww27 were Rowain explicitly said that novice deserved to get lynched because of that.

Having played against town-novice on WW16, his game there was very active and convincing. It's hard to do that on day 1 though. I'm not sure if novice has rolled a town role since that

How does Zak normally play, people? This is a normal game and therefore Zak should be playing normally if he is a villager? Is it normal for him to " not really pushing anyone, hedging my bets, and pulling my punches" at the start of the game before the shit really hits the fan? I usually just don't pay attention to the first days because someone almost always gets themselves killed rather then getting lynched in the games I've played. Zak also seems to be focused on being liked rather than wolf-hunting but that would be so easy to see incorrectly if he playing just like he says...

I'm not sure on this, Zak isn't known on tunneling hard on the first day. But not attacking anyone hard would be a good strategy for scum on day 1.

My personal innocent list based on day 1: Jowy, Lewwyn, MJW, Jkaen

Lewwyn I mentioned above. MJW's early meta seemed townish. I know this is bad, but this post by Jowy felt town, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid430918
I feel think scum would have continued to build up the case.
I liked how Jkaen reverted his case on MJW, and haven't really got any scum vibes from his posts.

Serdoa has valid reason for his quiet play, but I'm not ready to put him up to innocents, since the reasons would be valid regardless of his role. I'm willing to give him time, because his villager game is usually easy to recognize. I'm interested in hearing what specifically puts Serdoa on your innocent list, Lewwyn.

So I'm left with novice, Matt, Goreripper and zakalwe.

Looking at Matt's list, I found it interesting that he brushes off Zak for "Can't escape my mind that the argument seems specific enough to be one the scum lovingly crafted overnight to nab zak today, though", without going into anything specific.
Other than that, there's not much to go on. I share his view on GoreRipper.


novice started with a case against MJW and I thought his reasoning on #65 looked valid. He later reverted his stance on MJW on #102, which seemed townish as that's conclusion I came up as well. Other than that, he hasn't done much.


I felt GoreRipper "stating the obvious" a lot regarding his talk for the night actions, and regarding his talk about biases.
Side note, MJW's vote on GoreRipper based on not answering "how he came to RB" makes me think they are not on the scum team together. Reminded me that I'd like to ask from MJW what was the point of that vote.
His separate buddying up to Zakalwe might be on indication that they're not working together as scum.
Other than that, I thought his answers to novice were pretty good. Still the whole discussion seems pointless and doesn't help us catch the scum. Says Serdoa is strong as town, but is not willing to give him a chance to play.


Zakalwe spent a lot of words talking about the benefits of night talking, which I think is easy talk for scum.
I liked his answer regarding "encouraging Jkaen's crusade against MJW", http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431039
But didn't like his follow up post, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...#pid431045
I think Lewwyn was clear with his "I'm not saying X, but blah blah blah, so in conclusion X"., so I find it odd why Zak thought that as scummy. Lewwyn had just explained above why he doesn't think Zak surviving the night is a scum indication.

Zak also shots down the last argument with: "You really think I would go out of my way to get people talking, as scum?"
Why is that idea so ridiculous? Scum will try to appear like town, and that is exactly what people expect from town-Zak. So this statement doesn't make sense to me. It's not just a defense of yourself, but you seem to think that the idea doesn't make sense in general for scum.


Can someone point me to the novice tool?

Meiz finally mentions Serdoa. He's willing to give him time...

Bad morning to sleep in. Mattimeo my Serdoa vote was based on the thought in post 99. Novice pushed him in 102 so I was happy to add pressure. As for your point Meiz I still want to hear more from Serdoa but he does have a family issue so I can go with it if there is a consensus to give him another day to explain himself. I am fine if he wants to spend his extra time on starting positions for Pitboss Sixteen first.

GoreRipper should be calling us idiots and scum for voting for him, yet he's not. He's scared of being killed, and that is out of character for him.

I do not type very good rants when I am asleep. I still am waiting for your actual case by the way that special magical case that you were saving for a rainy day like today. This is just stupid grudging stuff like usual.

Like I said before I wish I could say it made me think you were mafia but it is in character. You notice you keep talking about how town always loses lately? Maybe it is because of this. Because of you.

Anyone else want Jowy to put up or shut up?

Goreripper wakes up the next day. NOW he votes Jowy. Did he really bus Serdoa through the entire first part of day 1 just to put on the brakes now? His Serdoa push must have been a planned bus, so why abort now?

Meiz

[novice]

This is exactly what I was going after, you bolded a part and said that it implicates me as scum, which was clearly faulty logic. That doesn't show town mindset of genuinely suspecting me, rather like you just wanted to push the developing case against me a bit further.

Really, Meiz? You're stretching.

[zakalwe]

This is exactly what I was going after, you bolded a part and said that it implicates me as scum, which was clearly faulty logic. That doesn't show town mindset of genuinely suspecting me, rather like you just wanted to push the developing case against me a bit further.

Was there a developing case on you? I've been pushing Goreripper today.

[novice]

Really, Meiz? You're stretching.

Stretching, like a lazy wolf. Also, you're reaching.

[Meiz]

You just convinced me, novice