WW26: The Masquerade [Game Thread]

[Muriel The Slow]

I can honestly understand why people would find my exchange with Saul scummy. When I learnt the correct terminology, I knew how confusing it looks and what an useless conversation it was. It was a misunderstanding, and both of us were calling each other liars when neither of us had lied. That's why I called off the fight. If I get lynched for the misunderstanding, I will take responsibility for it. That is the exact kind of sloppy play that villagers should avoid because it makes it hard to differentiate from a wolf making a slip.

As far as Saul goes, there was something off about him. He forgave me pretty easily, which I didn't expect, but that's fair enough. People can be reasonable and that alone isn't odd. After that though, first he seems to strongly side with me against Mary, but then changes his mind very fast. Now this could be just him getting emotional about the supposed "betrayal" people were saying that I had made at that time. But I still find something off about the whole exchange after the fight. I still have a villager lean on Saul, and there are many people I would rather lynch first.

Now let me address the so-called betrayal. Yes, I understand why people claimed this, but I did not hide anything. I was once again misunderstood, but for this I will not take the responsibility, because everything was explained in the argument I made against Mary. Somehow you guys thought that the scummy thing was Mary changing her mind, but that was not the point of it. The point was that she simultaneously voted for me, AND said that she's not convinced that I'm a wolf. It could be really lazy villager play, and I swear to god we're fucked if we have this many lazy villagers, but every villager should at least have one target that they believe is a wolf, even on Day 1. I've always suspected nearly EVERY player in the game on Day 1, and I find it hard to believe that a villager wouldn't even have one target that they think have high odds of rolling a wolf. Of course it doesn't mean 100%, but you never get 100% in this game on Day 1, and rarely ever, so it's not like you have to put these kind of disclaimers in your votes. I still find it more plausible that the disclaimer was there because she knew that I would flip a villager when lynched and she'd have an alibi ready to be used.

And let's not forget the much more scummier part of her actions, which was her change of heart on Rob that she never explained even when asked! She voted for Rob for the following reasons:

My suspicions lean towards Rob the Filch. True, this is day one and in the week end, so not much to begin with, and the new acconts slow the meta arguments based on past performances. I find his attack suspicious, arguing absent reasoning. If he was just to gauge reactions, his persistance makes liitle sense, other, if, you know, scum.

And then switched off:

Muriel the Slow for now. I am not convinced of her guilt just yet, but is too late to unvote and my suspicions of Rob have, somewhat, diminished.

Rob had continued to do exactly the things that made Mary suspicious of him. In fact, by Mary's own words, Rob's actions made little sense if he's not a scum. So Mary had a target who she believed had to be a wolf, and that target kept giving more proof of his guiltiness, but in the end she disregards that target with no explanation given, not even when prompted, and instead voted for another target and says she's not convinced that her new target is a wolf.

For the record, here is her defense when she came back:

But she also didn't change her mind. In the post she votes for me, she says that she's not convinced that I'm a wolf. But she still votes for me. Her last post is conflicting, she both changes her mind and doesn't. That's because, according to my theory, she needs to throw a vote at me to make sure a wolf doesn't get lynched, but she still wants to look innocent when I turn out to be a villager.

I believe Know-Not Jon and Half Nose Harry read correctly the intent of my posts. My change of heart was not that sudden, the discussion led up to it. Why did I change my vote for you? Because I felt that the case against you was better, that if I couldn't return in time, I would be held accountable for not voting you after all the discussion that took place and would be hard pressed to do it. Why did I felt I should, because the games here have a history of changing lynch targets at the end and I should put my vote where my suspicions lie.

The aura of innocence that Rob initially detected on you has dropped, now I sense your menacing demeanor. Now, I sadi I would revisit your case, but your attack on me has solidified my perception.

First, your misrepresent the evolution of my perception by quoting two posts separated by most of the discussion of the game.

Never explained why she changed her mind about Rob. I could understand switching off from Rob to me if she just found me more suspicious, but she specifically said that she found her suspicions against Rob diminished. I've explained how it makes no sense for that to happen. And it also makes little sense that she would be unconvinced that I'm a wolf, but still convinced enough to switch her vote to me from a guy who she thought had to be a wolf.

[Muriel The Slow]

Scarlet John because we have to, no matter what alignment you really are.

This is really pushing it. Do you really think so?

Bert, your case looks ok to me at first glance.

I know it's pushing it. It's a policy lynch. That's what they are all about. Vote off someone because you have to. If it changes anyone's minds, I think there's a small chance that it's all a wolf plot because he didn't get himself mod-killed and seemingly tried to take his words back with his new big post. But to me it's a policy lynch which has nothing to do with proof of alignment. It has to be done. It's the right decision. If he's a villager, he doomed us, but at least I don't have to blame myself for the loss, which would be the case if it was a wolf plot and we gave him a free pass to end game.

[Agnes The Orphan]

Muriel this is an absolutely horrible post. You're making the case very emotively (where I don't think John did) using swear words to make the actions sound more harsh and provocative then they were by any means. He already said that he was going to put the work in even if he didn't mean to, so there is nothing suspicious of that. And so you are distorting what he's saying and constructing a case around false observations.
I find his latest post actually rather good and posting useful observations - certainly not worthy of an automatic vote, which, by your final language you seem to be making it.
Apart from lack of contribution, theres no case there, and I like what he posted, so unvote with stronger suspicion of Muriel there.
I like berts case too BTW.

Fake-edit: and then Muriels recent post takes it further rolleye:
Seriously, he contributed, and said he'd do it anyway even if he wasn't invested and didn't care about the game. He didn't even bring up the policy lynch and with it raised still only means to do it if nothing changes - that's better then some other lurkers . Only jump on it if you think its a wolf ploy, and by small chance I'm presuming you don't.

[Agnes The Orphan]

And if you think he's village then his modkill offer is genuine, so why not go for that?
And if he's wolf, what's wrong with a guaranteed day4 lynch - its not like you have any other problem with him?
Or is it that he attacked you in his post (honest question, you seem to keep attacking those that accuse you)?

[Muriel The Slow]

I didn't make a case against John. I made a case against Mary. I only explained why I will have to vote John, I didn't try to make others join me. They can choose whether it's worth a policy lynch or not. I think it is, and I can sleep at night having made that vote, no matter what the outcome.

And if you think he's village then his modkill offer is genuine, so why not go for that?
And if he's wolf, what's wrong with a guaranteed day4 lynch - its not like you have any other problem with him?
Or is it that he attacked you in his post (honest question, you seem to keep attacking those that accuse you)?

I suggested him to mod-kill himself if he was being serious. He didn't do it.

And I also don't give a shit if someone who I find suspicious has attacked me or not. I'm not making cases to make myself look good, I'm making cases to catch wolves.

[Widow Edith]

TBH, this feels like a tenuous case though, so I'm interested in what others think.

As I had an uneasy feeling about Richard yesterday I find little fault on your case.

The one thing I read differently is

Other general scum tells.... the need to point out when he's online and offline, and rushing to get a vote in.

As the lynch was decided already I doubt scum needs to jump on a rolling mislynch-waggon. He could have easily voted Muriel (he did it before) avoiding the "part of the mislynch"-guilt.

But that's of course WIFOM and only one point of several.


TLDR: He is worth pressuring

[Know-Nothing Jon]

It's a policy lynch.

What is the policy that you're enforcing?

[Muriel The Slow]

It's a policy lynch.

What is the policy that you're enforcing?

He gave up. Nothing he says or does can be used against him. The fact that he gave up, doesn't have time, doesn't have energy, doesn't want to re-read, doesn't have the will to play on and would rather be lynched, those cover everything. We either kill him now or never, because every tell that will come up in the future is a null tell because of the fact that he has given up.

[Fat Rose]

Oh another minor thing I notice; the doctor suspects Friar Andrew early on, but when he's on the block, the doctor hopes "you guys" are right about him, saying he prefers to lynch Muriel. A bit odd that he wouldn't comment on what his own opinion on Andrew is now since he had stated an opinion earlier.

Have to say I generally don't like it when someone posts "Hope you guys are right about him". Several players did that D1 IIRC and I regard that as a slight scum-tell, trying to push the responsibility of the lynch away from oneself. Either you believe someone is not scum - than you should state that outright - or you believe someone is scum - than there is no reason to push the responsibility to the others as if you have nothing to do with it.

But my general feeling about Doctor Saul is positive apart from that.

One difference though is that novice made that post when he was well on his way to the gallows, sort of like a last-ditch attempt at turning around the bandwagon. It seems a bit premature for Scarlet John to resort to this tactic at the first critical question.

Anyway, Scarlet John, why were the all the flips confusing to you? What assumptions of yours did they upset?

I think these will never work as a last-ditch effort. When you are called out for low-content, wiggle around, get more and more votes pointing out 10 hours before lynch "Look, I really don't have much time, I'll get myself modkilled by not voting if you want" won't save you.

But I'd still like an answer from him to your question. Especially as I'm surprised that he got confused by those flips even though he claims not to have time for the game, so I'm not really sure what can be so confusing about those if you haven't invested time to think about the setup etc. For example this part:

Night kills are confusing because active players weren't killed. After thinking about it overnight Anne/Sarah deaths look like the actions of a vigilante or neutral 3rd party. As I don't really see why wolves would kill someone (Anne) who hadn't done much up until the nightpost. The "werewolf" flip on Sarah doesn't suggest that there would be 2 wolf factions. We lynched the paranoid player so it's not too likely that there was another random death source floating around. For now I'm assuming Tom was the wolf kill, and so maybe he was on to someone - I can't remember his suspects apart from Andrew, will review later for clues too. Oh hmm, she's strongly anti-Muriel during night posting as well, there's too many links in this chain for it to be strong evidence, but another reason to be wary of Muriel at this point.

That's quite some thoughts for someone not having time for the game I feel. Also I find it interesting that his whole post that I quoted partly here is imo just stating that we should watch Muriel. It's imo appealing to go for her right now, as you can be certain to find several people agreeing with you.

I'm not bothered about the vote on me but Saul's "I don't think Sarah would throw dirt on a teammate" is a bad point, especially since the dirt in question was a throwaway comment about buddies. Regarding saul, that flip from muriel to mary back to muriel (and now off Muriel again for previously mentioned bad reasoning) is sudden and feels odd. Asks the question whether he intended to lynch Mary and then turn around and blame it on Muriel later. Definitely an interaction that should be reviewed after one of them flips.

And Muriel again, basically asking to lynch either her or Doctor Saul. And again quite some "insights" for not having time (though I don't agree with those, I think he inflates the importance of Doctor Sauls switches and reads stuff into it that I really can't see)

Also btw I'm not being emotional, quite the opposite - I'm ok with dying because then I wouldn't have to find time to play this game properly.

I'm stunned. Especially about the fact that I just had explained to Percival the difference between being emotional and trying to call on to someone else emotions and yet you are perfectly able to mix the two up. No you are not emotional, but you try to appeal to the emotional side of all of us. That sentence above is just another example imo.

And if you think he's village then his modkill offer is genuine, so why not go for that?
And if he's wolf, what's wrong with a guaranteed day4 lynch - its not like you have any other problem with him?
Or is it that he attacked you in his post (honest question, you seem to keep attacking those that accuse you)?

Agnes, why do you think it is a guaranteed D4 lynch if he is a wolf? Suppose on D3 he tells us "Hey guys, time-situation got better, I'll be able to help more now" and votes, will we lynch him D4? I doubt that heavily, I would almost bet that someone would state that we should give him time now. And then it will be D5 and if we guess by the amount of kills on N1 how many players will be left at that point we will be down to ~8 players (assuming one vig-kill this night). The game could already be over at that point.

That added with his "policy lynch me" posts is enough for me to be content to vote for him. Especially as I don't believe that his time-situation suddenly got worse, he most likely knew that at the start of the game already if it is true. So as a villager he could have simply told BRick and one of those on the waiting list could have joined instead. But he didn't. He also didn't get himself modkilled, he just told us he is fine if we lynch him, as explained above playing on emotions. That's all not really villagery for me. And when I read his D1, I find contributions that for me read as if he did have quite some time to actually read posts very thoroughly. So his statement now that he does not have it doesn't read true for me. I think we have a wolf here that thought it to be smart play to offer his policy lynch right away when getting some votes and when he realized that it gave him just more votes he turned around and started to contribute. Just that those contributions show that his "I don't have time"-excuse wasn't really true, else he couldn't whip up those facts that quickly imo.

[Sir Percival]

another aspect of muriel play i don't like is her attacks on emotion. scum or not, people get emotional in these game because lots of time and effort invested in these game. showing emotion is null tell in this specific game coz no baseline.

Are you intentionally misunderstanding her? She did not attack that anyone got emotional, she attacked the way certain posts did not bring forth actual evidence or arguments but just tried to play on the emotional side ("we will lose because you are all sheep!") instead. It was not showing emotion - which I agree is normal in these games - it was trying to use emotions to get others to vote in a certain way.

(Basically the same thing politicians are often accused: They play with the emotions of the voters ["The filthy rich, that make their money on the back of the small people, have to pay more taxes"] instead of actually adding anything meaningful to a discussion)

emotional reasoning is also used by village and town in every game. still complete null tell.

moving off muriel briefly, want to here from young will. gonna reread when my raven gets back with his posts. these newfangled mobile ravens don't have the same functionality as your desktop raven.

What's the case on Young Will? Honestly asking, because I can't remember and haven't reread the whole thread yet.

on reread of will posts, and posts voting will today, (not whole thread tho) i dont understand case on will either.

back to muriel who keeps finding new ways to attract my scumdar