September 18th, 2024, 18:27
(This post was last modified: September 18th, 2024, 18:37 by MJW (ya that one).)
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Election forecasters put it at 60% Harris. Expect Nate Silver, but that happened due to no left-leaning posters polling swing states and his model emphasizing state polling. It would coverage when more polls show up.
Betting markets at around 55% Harris. Trump did much better than expected in 2016/2020 but DEMs did better in 2022. Makes sense to give him a 5% boost.
Edit: NV goes from Tossup to Tilt D.
September 22nd, 2024, 14:56
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I've seen enough to bump up harris and WI/PA to lean d. Trump still has a very good chance of winning.
September 28th, 2024, 19:22
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Robinson's implosion combined with the latest Atlas poll makes it plausible (though unlikely, so no rating change) that Trump wins PA but loses NC. This also makes NV matter because this map would be able to happen:
September 30th, 2024, 09:46
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We feel fated to have another popular vote win for Democrats, but an electoral college win for Republicans.
Darrell
September 30th, 2024, 12:06
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Which isn't a knock on the Republicans' inability to win the popular vote. They're not trying because that's not what matters. If the system was the popular vote, their campaigning and policies would be different, they'd be trying to swing a million votes in NY instead of a few thousand in PA.
Also I'm not sure the premise is true - the polling seems to have Harris ahead in enough swing states. The real question is how many are supporting Trump but won't say so to polls. No idea if the polls have figured out how (or are even trying) to account for that.
September 30th, 2024, 12:20
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I wish the system was different and believe it should be, but you are correct. I also wish it was different so my Wisconsin vote meant I didn't get deluged with political junk 24/7.
I don't think either side really trusts polls very much, with good reason.
September 30th, 2024, 22:23
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(September 30th, 2024, 12:20)Mjmd Wrote: I wish the system was different and believe it should be, but you are correct. I also wish it was different so my Wisconsin vote meant I didn't get deluged with political junk 24/7.
I don't think either side really trusts polls very much, with good reason.
Do you think you will get PTSD from all the ads?
September 30th, 2024, 23:37
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I mean most of our elections are decided by less than 30k votes for the last few, so its pretty constant every election. You just bare through it like a stretch of bad weather. I'm pretty good at tuning out ads though and my phone catches most of spam.
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The VP debate shows that Vance is good at talking in interviews and explaining policy problems. God knows why he decided to dabble in twitter meme propaganda.
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(September 30th, 2024, 12:06)T-hawk Wrote: Which isn't a knock on the Republicans' inability to win the popular vote. They're not trying because that's not what matters. If the system was the popular vote, their campaigning and policies would be different, they'd be trying to swing a million votes in NY instead of a few thousand in PA.
That blade cuts both ways, it's not like Harris is trying to win California by 6 million votes instead of 5 million.
It's also a good illustration of how the existing systems essentially disenfranchises 300 million voters. That said, I don't favor changing it. The historical reason it's our system in the first place has only gotten more true, and I don't want the rural parts of the country to have less influence than they already do.
Darrell
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