[SPOILER] PB37 Dark Savant tries not to be a blatant MP n00b

[Dark Savant]

Okay, now to resolve an ambiguity on t48 that is still unclear.  (I realize I'm going into a lot of detail, but part of the point of writing is this out is that it makes easier to see flaws in my own reasoning, and putting it out there lets you possibly find problems.)

+13,000 new land tiles appeared that turn, with no new cities.  Some of this must be from a +1 culture building from Ventessel built in Juneau on t38 (and Juneau was only founded on t36!), but that many land tiles can't be just from one city, so someone else whom I have no graphs on produced a +1 culture buliding on t38.

Other players who got score increases this turn that I don't have graphs on: dtay, GermanJoey, JR4.  GermanJoey doesn't have a barracks in Seven Mysteries, and can't have produced the monument there longer ago than t52.  And JR4 isn't Aggressive and can't have had the technology for monuments on t38, so he would have had to had built a 60-hammer barracks early, which is doubtful especially considering his excellent growth since.

So this looks most likely to be dtay, who is Aggressive and could do that.  (I'm not sure this makes sense given what I know about the map ...)

Playing with the numbers, the only way to total up 13 land tiles that make the score numbers work are either dtay +2/Ventessel +11, or dtay +4/Ventessel +9.  The former seems unlikely, so I'll go with the latter and reverse course if the score numbers aren't working.  This is all rather tentative.

edit: (from editing t70) The numbers never worked right for Ventessel; I can only make them work if he controlled only 8 land tiles in the interim.  dtay can't have gained more than 4 tiles, so I think Ventessel gained 9 and someone lost control of one.

[Dark Savant]

Turn 68 (1280 BC) - Part 4

Okay, here's what Gavagai is up to:



He just finished two chops in Ankara, with no buildings appearing, and now just whipped 2 pop down to size 3.

I'm not sure how that's anything other than a library.  If we don't get the Great Lighthouse, we're going to need to put down a stele and then a library to combat this.  Or combat this using, you know, military.

[Dark Savant]

If you still want to, by the way, we have a second chariot finishing in Harmondale next turn.  I can bring up the other chariot from the south, too (I was planning to promote it to Sentry and scout).

They'll take 3 turns to get in place, and I can then attack straight from Castleview on t72 by building a road on the intervening corn tile.  The axe in Castleview can join as well, since I'm bringing up a spear that will get there in 2 turns.

He'll see this attack coming the turn before, however -- he can retreat the archer into his city, and that single archer behind a river, on a hill, and with +20% cultural defense might be enough on its own to hold out against our entire non-warrior, non-spear military of 2 chariots and 1 axe, and certainly if he can get any other unit in there.  Either the axe won't be able to join in immediately, or I'll have to take an extra turn to move the chariots across the river which gives him time to get together an emergency response.


I don't see the payoff.  Is there a better way of doing this, or is the opportunity gone?

[Dark Savant]

Turn 68 (1280 BC) - Part 5 (C&D)

Score tally:

• Coeurva: +5 points for +2 pop (17 pop total).
  
• dtay: +5 points for 4 land tiles held for 20 turns (tentative).
  
• Gavagai: +2 points for Konya (city #5) that claims 7 new land tiles; -5 points for a -2 pop whip in Ankara (15 pop total).  His capital also sports a brand new granary, which is his first building.
  
• GermanJoey: +7 points for +1 pop in each of Seven Mysteries, State of Zijin, and Heavenly Star (17 pop total).
  
• JR4: +3 points for +1 pop outside the Buddhist holy city (19 pop total).
  
• Ventessel: +11 points for 9 land tiles for 20 turns edit: +10 points for 8 land tiles for 20 turns (hypothesis is that he somehow lost control of one); +6 points for an unknown technology researched in 12 turns (tentative).
  

Power graph:



Yeah, a lot of units show as dying.

[Dark Savant]

I just realized we did this:

Me: "I want to attack Gavagai."
You: "No."

You: "I want to attack Gavagai."
Me: "No."

Okay, about 15 turns have passed in between, but still.  

[ipecac]

Looks like the opportunity is pretty much gone. Breaking an implici NAP would also have consequences, you're right; I was a bit taken aback when you made it, but it can't be taken back easily.

Red dot looks good, with 2S of it being a decent alternative that however needs a Barracks.

Orange dot is good. Right hand pink dot isn't urgent, not with a bad economy. Left hand pink dot is very vulenerable, and would cost quite a bit of military to defend.

[Dark Savant]

Looks like the opportunity is pretty much gone. Breaking an implici NAP would also have consequences, you're right; I was a bit taken aback when you made it, but it can't be taken back easily.

Well, the window was maybe 2 turns at most, and we would have had to position the axe, chariot, and 1 worker in place before knowing Gavagai was also running light on defense. 20/20 hindsight, really. I wouldn't have been so quick to offer a NAP otherwise.

Hardly the worst thing for both of us to be playing builder, really. It means we're not gaining relative on Gavagai, but it does mean both of us are gaining relative to the other 7 players, which is on balance good, I think.

[Dark Savant]

I'm still thinking over whether to start 1 settler/1 worker, or 2 settlers.

I'm sorely tempted to go with 2 settlers, aimed at red and green dots.  In favor: green dot won't actually need a worker for quite some time; it needs a border expansion first, and would use shared cows with Harmondale and seafood in the meantime.  That would leave us with only 8 workers for 7 cities, plus some possibly painful expansion costs, though.  On the other hand: we have the -25% maintenance discount from RtR-Aggressive.  On yet another hand: it might send us up the scoreboard enough to get people's attention more (we're already #3 and not far from the top).

Both cities are safely in our backlines; green dot would need no defense at all for a long time, and red dot needs at most a nearby chariot to fend off barbarians.

[Dark Savant]

We could alternatively build 2 settlers to plant red dot plus orange dot, to get orange dot going before Coeurva can build culture in Whitehall.

It would cost more and require worker attention earlier, however, and Coeurva would be able to see that it's lightly defended.

[Dark Savant]

While we await the turn roll, why not have some demographics?



We're doing okay, though I suppose we're #3 in soldier score only because other players' units are dying.

None died this turn as far as I can tell.  I'm presuming the Incest Empire cleaned up any White Walkers in their territory, but don't have what it takes to launch a northern offensive yet.