WW15 - Chiron is a harsh mistress

[pindicator]

Well, at least the discussion overnight went from "possible, maybe-there 3rd factions" and "name claims" to finally trying to hunt down scum. Not too thrilled about the target but at least it's a start

No, I didn't contribute much day 1. The only thing I felt confident about was Tasunke was being Tasunke, and thestick seems more like an excited newb than a wolf. (Although take that with a grain of salt, considering who I thought were villagers at the end of day 1 last game...) Day 1 is more about establishing evidence for later on, and lots of people were talking fine without me being a distraction.

Regarding Catwalk - I don't have anything concrete. I was going to say the point about veteran players being all wolves, but 1) slowcheetah beat me to that and 2) there are too many vet players for Catwalk to be the "next best" lynch. Someone else said that maybe Catwalk was on to something before it got to be mainstream - certainly possible, but not enough to go hanging someone for yet.

I really think there is way too much meta going on. Too many people are talking about hypothetical 3rd parties, always saying that they "could" exist, but then running after targets like they know that those 3rd parties do. Which is really suspicious to me because it seems like a really easy way for a NAPper to either get the conversation off of hunting for NAPpers and also as a way of looking like they're trying to hunt.

Cross-posting with Selrahc here...

@Selrahc - Why do you think that names coincide with alignment when Bigger specifically said that they do not for this game?

@Molach - Why do you think Selrahc is village?

[Maniac]

To maniac, so you are currently voting for for low activity, and the quick accusation [against thestick], and safe posts, correct?

No, you are suspect because Catwalk suspected you, and then he got killed. So if you were a wolf, you may want to get rid of a lynching threat to you.

[Molach]

About Selrahc, I think it unlikely wolf play in general to get so worked up and stubborn about what Lewwyn did. He is trying to get Lewwyn lynched, so if you think Selrahc is a wolf then Lewwyn is innocent - so Selrahc makes a very noticable attack on a villager. So I think Selrahc is leaning village on this issue. Just how I see this recent development.

[Meiz]

Sorry for the quiet beginning. I'll try to make up for it now

I'm getting big villager vibes from Serdoa, Jkaen and thestick. Lots of good, well explained posting from all of them, and very active as well. Thestick's play so far is way different than as a wolf, while Jkaen's and Serdoa's plays remind me a lot of their previous villager games. Also really liked the voting pattern theory from Jkaen, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post282240

So these three would be my top picks for likely villagers.

Getting villager vibes from Maniac. He suspected Jkaen for not having a name, which is understandable as he has one. I bet not all wolves have leader names, and somewhat doubt he would have made this argument in that case he was NAP. Also minor thing, but I cannot see newbie wolf making this response when thestick asked why he voted for him, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=334

Bob gives small villager vibe, because It's hard for me too see Napper making an argument "doesn't seem like NAP, but I'll still vote him" (against Tasunke) . Doesn't make any sense to me even now, but still I'd think Napper would avoid arguments like that like plague...

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Lewwyn's attack against Tasunke (because of underlining not having name) is more understandable, when considering the role he claims to have. Wasn't Lewwyn in the game where Selrahc had the elf feud? If so, I don't see him repeating Selrahc's mistakes, if he got the feuder role himself. If I remember correctly, Selrahc also started by claiming that his feuder was a wolf? So I'd guess he is telling the truth and I suspect that Nappers "knew that he knows" (:D) for balance, so they could avoid being caught by mass name claims.

Willing to put Lewwyn "on hold", until we know more of the setup.

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I agree that Selrahc concentrates way too much to possible third parties, instead of catching Nappers. Instant first thought was "possible feuder for Lewwyn", but starting to doubt that. I would not see him making this direct attacks against his feuder, as it didn't work out that well previously. The thing is, Selrahc seems to have way different approach to the game, than other players. Executing elf feud, and "crypted messages" tricks are perfect example of this. Staying firmly on neutral camp.

I was not surprised of his attack against "mindworm" Tasunke, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=220 as he had talked about the possibility previously. So my theory could have easily strengthened the idea he had in place already. I find Mattimeo's and waterbat's similar views out of nowhere more suspicious.

http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=225
http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=227

Would be easier for a Napper to justify voting based on this argument, after other players had talked of the possibility. Then again I can't see two Nappers making the same argument as weak as it was, so kind of doubt they would both be Nappers.

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My top two suspects at the moment are Pindicator and Injera. Like repeated by others, Pindicator's posts reek of "no content". He did explain being busy, but we have no guarantees on that.

Injera on the other hand does not seem to hunt wolves. He put his day 1 vote against Sareln "to draw him out of his shell", and concentrated mostly on minor defending of Bob and Tasunke. He sat on the fence until there where "only two choises left", and voted Tas, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showthrea...post282039
No attempts to influence even slightly who would end up on the block. Clean hands eh?

Today makes a jump against Molach, without bringing anything original to the table. Not saying this is incriminating, as Molach's role is unknown, but IMO it continues the "easy votes" pattern.

I find Injera quite a good player, but so far I haven't found a single thing that would make me think him as a villager, which is really strange when compared to his previous villager games. So Injera gets my vote.

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We have novice and pindicator without name claims? I hardly see much reason to keep the info hidden at this point, so I'd like Pindicator to claim his leader name / "no name" and then followed by novice.

I doubt this will get any big benefit for wovles, as long as you don't go into details.

[Meiz]

I doubt this will get any big benefit for wovles

No, I did not mean waffles, but Nappers

[pindicator]

I keep hearing the "no content" argument against - is that just day 1, Meiz? I would hope that you're seeing my argument against Selrahc as at least being plausible, even if you don't agree with it.

Since the name claim keeps being an issue to others, I'll share: I'm CEO Morgan. So who's drone owes me their paycheck?

[novice]

And by elimination I'm Sinder Roze of the Data Angels.

[Mattimeo]

I was not surprised of his attack against "mindworm" Tasunke, http://realmsbeyond.net/forums/showpost....tcount=220 as he had talked about the possibility previously. So my theory could have easily strengthened the idea he had in place already. I find Mattimeo's and waterbat's similar views out of nowhere more suspicious.

Unfortunate timing on my part, I suppose, that my first activity after Tasunke decided to pull the insanity card occured after others who also felt that it was enough to lynch him.

Since the name claim keeps being an issue to others, I'll share: I'm CEO Morgan. So who's drone owes me their paycheck?

I feel it necessary to point out that the life of a drone is not entirely about receiving their paycheck. We have feelings too, you know.

[Meiz]

I keep hearing the "no content" argument against - is that just day 1, Meiz?

Mostly yes.

I would hope that you're seeing my argument against Selrahc as at least being plausible, even if you don't agree with it.

Well, I am voting Injera over you

[pindicator]

I feel it necessary to point out that the life of a drone is not entirely about receiving their paycheck. We have feelings too, you know.

Keep your feelings, this CEO just wants your paycheck