WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jowy]

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

Exactly, we have a 48 hour day, what is everybodys obsession with doing all the reveals and vote swinging in the last couple of hours when half the players are in bed?

Depending on the method on how the night kill was prevented, we might have the identity of a second scum already confirmed. Waiting a while and letting everyone speak will give us more interaction tells to analyze later. If we had the identity of another scum, and it was revealed right away, the whole day would just consist of everyone voting for the guy and mostly being silent. That's the theory behind it, I would assume. I tend to agree with you though, it's not a good idea to leave reveals and vote swings to the very last hours of the day, at least not intentionally. Vote swings are more understandable because we keep gaining more information throughout the day. Anyway, people might not be online, and personally I think that revealing late in the day hurts the integrity of a reveal because scum would fake-reveal late in the day when things don't go their way.

[Azza]

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

FWIW, I agree pretty strongly with this.

Exactly, we have a 48 hour day, what is everybodys obsession with doing all the reveals and vote swinging in the last couple of hours when half the players are in bed?

Depending on the method on how the night kill was prevented, we might have the identity of a second scum already confirmed. Waiting a while and letting everyone speak will give us more interaction tells to analyze later. If we had the identity of another scum, and it was revealed right away, the whole day would just consist of everyone voting for the guy and mostly being silent. That's the theory behind it, I would assume. I tend to agree with you though, it's not a good idea to leave reveals and vote swings to the very last hours of the day, at least not intentionally. Vote swings are more understandable because we keep gaining more information throughout the day. Anyway, people might not be online, and personally I think that revealing late in the day hurts the integrity of a reveal because scum would fake-reveal late in the day when things don't go their way.

I dunno about Jkaen, but I'm fine with not revealing in the first 24 hours to get a better idea of the interactions and the like. What I'm not ok with is waiting til 2 hours to go, meaning people will miss it because of sleep/work/other.

[Mattimeo]

There is one big question that as yet has not been asked.

We have already lost our doctor for the game, I find it unlikely we had 2.

A no kill on behalf of the scum I believe puts them a day behind, so would seem a very curious tactic.

Hence the most obvious solution surely must be that the village has a roleblocker. If that is the case then I would ask the roleblocker to announce who they are and who they blocked and save an awful lot of debate today.

Normally the argument would be you don't want to out a power role, but all roles we have seen so far are limited shots, so there would be a good chance he is out of power by now anyway.

Agreed for the most part, but I think I would have preferred if that remained individual assumed knowledge, rather than general.

I don't think that's right. If we mislynched Day 2 it would be 5 town, 3 scum day 3. Then if we mislynched again it would be 3 town 3 scum. That would still allow for another day, by my calculation.

3-3 -> town loss.

Best case in the day is tie vote, then scum kills at night.
Would require silly rules / successful protective roles for it to be even possible for town win.

Oh. Right.

Loving the no-kill!
Would be funny if they're going for a no-kill bluff

Not liking that comment. We've had enough pointless speculation on irrelevancies / exceedingly unlikely situations in this game already.

Agree totally, if someone has certain proof on someone, don't post it until ~2hrs before the lynch.

Umm... I'd appreciate being able to view the proof before the lynch is resolved.

Agreed, with a substantial portion of the game having lynch at 07:00 or 09:00, would probably want a good ~10 hours lead time for anything pivotal and 'last minute'.

Of course, significantly more time than that is generally useful, for actual analysis.

Exactly, we have a 48 hour day, what is everybodys obsession with doing all the reveals and vote swinging in the last couple of hours when half the players are in bed?

Depending on the method on how the night kill was prevented, we might have the identity of a second scum already confirmed. Waiting a while and letting everyone speak will give us more interaction tells to analyze later. If we had the identity of another scum, and it was revealed right away, the whole day would just consist of everyone voting for the guy and mostly being silent. That's the theory behind it, I would assume. I tend to agree with you though, it's not a good idea to leave reveals and vote swings to the very last hours of the day, at least not intentionally. Vote swings are more understandable because we keep gaining more information throughout the day. Anyway, people might not be online, and personally I think that revealing late in the day hurts the integrity of a reveal because scum would fake-reveal late in the day when things don't go their way.

I dunno about Jkaen, but I'm fine with not revealing in the first 24 hours to get a better idea of the interactions and the like. What I'm not ok with is waiting til 2 hours to go, meaning people will miss it because of sleep/work/other.

Pretty much this.

And now for Mattimeo's complete lack of communicable logic leanings:
Jowy - town. With thanks whoever had his back last night.
Gazglum - was leaning scum overnight. Today is making me think town, both from his actions and the current 'spread' of votes. Interesting that our opinions of each other have bost shifted positively since the lynch...
zakalwa - probably town.
novice - completely unreasonable paranoia says possible scum. Definitely no actual facts backing this up :/
Qgqqqqq - Qgqqqqq. Therefore slight scum lean 'cause I'm lazy. Most likely to be scum of those who finished the day on MJW.
Jkaen - slight town lean. Mainly from lack of major tells either way, other than presence on MJW. Posts seem generally useful.
Azza - scum lean. Has seemed out of character; more aggressive than usual. Though that's probably a null tell. More importantly, he needs to be scum so I can maintain an "only have voted for scum" record.
Azarius - posts generally appear to look useful, but also to have been specifically intended for that. Not liking his reaction to the lack of a kill.

[Mattimeo]

Gazglum - was leaning scum overnight. Today is making me think town, both from his actions and the initial 'spread' of votes. Interesting that our opinions of each other have both shifted positively since the lynch...

fixed

[novice]

And now for Mattimeo's complete lack of communicable logic leanings:
Jowy - town. With thanks whoever had his back last night.

What does this mean?

[novice]

Gazglum, were you convinced that MJW was innocent or that Matt was scum? Why?

I wasn't convinced of anything. Day 1 I thought Matt was the best pick, but it was still a Day 1 case. MJW I thought was acting in character for him, and that it would be an easy wagon for wolves to be on. I thought he was probably innocent.

Day 2 I grew less sure about MJW and moved him up to about third on my scum list in post #290. However, I admit that there was a fair gap between my two lead candidates and him, and 'about third' is a goodlace to put a scumbuddy, so it doesn't prove much. Mattimeo's responses to my questions and what I saw as his refusal to make strong reads or cases on people meant that I was further sure he was scum. However, I thought Jowy seemed a fairer vote because he really wasn't answering anybody's questions at all.

Jowy calmed down a bit and finally posted some content while I was asleep, so that put Mattimeo higher for me. At lynch I was fairly sure, if not convinced because you can never be convinced, that Mattimeo was scum. And because it was then a 2 horse race and I doubted the wolves would have managed to let themselves both up on the block, I therefore assumed MJW was innocent.

What about Jowy's responses caused you to move him back below Matt on your suspect list?

Okay so the bolded part was what I tried to trap Gazglum on. It is pretty suspect - how could Jowy go below Mattimeo on the suspect list without Gazglum having time to read what Jowy posted while Mattimeo was sleeping. The reason for my line of inquiry in the first place is of course that I suspected that Mattimeo's hurried posting before deadline was not aimed at lynching Mattimeo but at saving MJW.

It would have been more damning if Gaz had responded to my question above by elaborating on how this-and-that in Jowy's nightly posts caused him to vote Mattimeo instead, but he didn't say that directly. Instead he clarified that he skimmed the thread, saw that Jowy had posted some stuff, voted Mattimeo since it was a two horse race, and later reread Jowy's posts. If you reread the bolded statements above, he just says that Jowy "posted some content".

So I guess Gaz may be innocent. I guess I need to reread then, I've been busy writing a script to do the boring work for me instead.

Check it out here by the way.

[zakalwe]

It is pretty suspect - how could Jowy go below Mattimeo on the suspect list without Gazglum having time to read what Jowy posted while [Gazglum] was sleeping.

I agree. I saw that from my phone and got pretty excited, before seeing that you were already on it. Reading the way you handled it gave me flashbacks to the traffic cop game.

I also agree that he gave a plausible enough explanation though, so if he's scum he managed to navigate the minefield (unlike me).

Nice idea with the script, that's a big improvement.

[zakalwe]

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

Ok. Personally, I never had a problem with MJW's style and regard him as a strong player, both as town and as scum. And I don't think he actually gets lynched very often. (Apart from when Ichabod decides to take the plunge...) In any case, I didn't mean to say that sacrificing MJW would be unthinkable. But I think the claim that he was living on borrowed time already was unfounded.

[Azarius]

I considered saying this right at the beginning of the day, but decided to wait and give time for some discussion to happen without this information. I also considered just staying quiet, but I feel that everyone knowing what happened will do more good than harm. I am a jailer. Last night, working under the assumption that Novice was town, I jailed him. I felt this was the right thing to do for several reasons. I have believed him to be town now for a while. Also, I was fairly confident that he would be the scum target tonight. The Serdoa kill on night one seemed to be the most obvious kill to me, and that's what they went for. It stood to reason then that they would go for the obvious kill again last night. It would be preferable to jail a scum and therefore stop a kill AND have a smoking gun to lynch a scum, but I felt much more confident in Novice being town than I do in anyone in particular being scum. That being said, I realize it is theoretically possible that Novice is scum and was performing the night kill last night, but I find that extremely unlikely. Considering that we lost two power roles in the first two deaths, I felt it was important to try to get what felt like a more sure benefit from mine than to try for a bigger play and possibly get nothing. Given most people's stated views of Novice, I was feeling fairly confident that it would work as I hoped. I threw in the Novice being clearly town comment near the end of the day for good measure. I actually began doubting my course of action when Merovech posted that he could only do a short write up would have to wait a few hours. Why would there be anything but a short write up if I was set to prevent the night kill? Ultimately I figured I had to stick with what I decided and not try to second guess myself based off over-thinking his comment. I've read through up to here, and so far I'd say waiting was the right thing to do. Going to reread now and comment on things since day start.

[Azarius]

I can't type properly. "I actually began doubting my course of action when Merovech posted that he could only do a short write up would have to wait a few hours." should read "I actually began doubting my course of action when Merovech posted that he could only do a short write up and anything else would have to wait a few hours".