SAT - #2 Pencil only Please

[Sareln]

Save is in. Go ahead and have more fun I can't get to play it till late tonight.

I took a look, just to poke around - I think we just keep moving units at his cap. Not sure about the injured chariot - I'm good with promoting and moving in, but it will be awfully vulnerable.

We could also move the holkan in with the other chariot, and have the injured one heal for a turn. Either way.

We should probably move the scout in, as well. it can sacrifice itself nobly to block a reinforcement

I'd vote for aqueduct in arithmatic,lib in the analogy and workers everywhere else. Cottage the heck out of the floodplains.

49000 now, but we see that he gained a pop in his capital (+500) and we see a warrior we didn't see before (+2000).

[Sareln]

Capital is size 7, so 3.5k

Also, went ahead and scraped the XML for Tech/Era/iPower (excel auto-import works well for non-array values).

Ancient techs with iPow <> 0:

(2k) Animal Husbandry
(2k) Hunting
(2k) Mining
(2k) Sailing
(4k) The Wheel
(6k) Archery
(8k) Bronze Working

(4k) Metal Casting (He Oracled it definitely, as we captured a forge in Chiton!)

Sian is probably missing Archery (Since he built a warrior after we pillaged his copper when he could've whipped an archer), Sailing (why would you research this right now). He clearly has AH, Hunting, Mining, Bronze Working, and The Wheel.

So Power from Techs is 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 4 = 22k

We have vision right now on an Axe and we know the Capital is size 7. So that accounts for:

3.5 + 6 = 9.5k -> 9.5k + 22k = 31.5k.

Total is 39k, so we have 39 - 31.5 = 7.5k unaccounted for.

At least .5k of that is his other city, but it was founded with the wheat in range so it's distinctly possible that it's size 3. Which would leave Sian with 6k.

1 Axe or 1 Warrior + 1 Spear.

Forward the Chariots.

No city in the north. So no horse units.

Score went from 285 -> 303, delta of 18.

Archery is worth 6 points, Pop points are worth 9.

'Rax are worth 3k each.

Points rose from 39000 -> 46000, a bump of 7,000 points. At least one pop growth for the capital (+500), and we can see an Axe and a Warrior.

Other pieces of information: Nicolae took a city off of Sian the same turn we took Chiton. So Sian is one-basing right now.

[Sareln]

Okay. Remove what we know of the previous turn.

Sian has 49,000 soldier points, a size 8 capital, an Axe, and a Warrior.

Size 8 Capital: 4,000
1 Axe: 6,000
1 Warrior: 2,000

49 - 12 = 37k

Buildings:
Forge = 2k
Rax = 3k
Walls = 2k

Techs:
(2k) Animal Husbandry
(2k) Hunting
(2k) Mining
(2k) Sailing
(4k) The Wheel
(6k) Archery
(8k) Bronze Working
(4k) Metal Casting
(10k) Iron Working

We know Sian has AH, Hunting, Mining, Wheel, BW, MC.

Total of 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 4 = 22k

37k - 22k = 15k

Still trying to figure out how the pop figures out...

[Sareln]

Ah, pop rounds down.

Since Nicolae took that city off of Sian last turn (Eg. Sian was out of non-capital cities when we took Chiton).

Let me rethink this then...

[Sareln]

Capital is size 7, so 3.5k

Also, went ahead and scraped the XML for Tech/Era/iPower (excel auto-import works well for non-array values).

Ancient techs with iPow <> 0:

(2k) Animal Husbandry
(2k) Hunting
(2k) Mining
(2k) Sailing
(4k) The Wheel
(6k) Archery
(8k) Bronze Working

(4k) Metal Casting (He Oracled it definitely, as we captured a forge in Chiton!)

Sian is probably missing Archery (Since he built a warrior after we pillaged his copper when he could've whipped an archer), Sailing (why would you research this right now). He clearly has AH, Hunting, Mining, Bronze Working, and The Wheel.

So Power from Techs is 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 4 = 22k

We have vision right now on an Axe and we know the Capital is size 7. So that accounts for:

3.5 + 6 = 9.5k -> 9.5k + 22k = 31.5k.

[STRIKE]Total is 39k, so we have 39 - 31.5 = 7.5k unaccounted for.

At least .5k of that is his other city, but it was founded with the wheat in range so it's distinctly possible that it's size 3. Which would leave Sian with 6k.

1 Axe or 1 Warrior + 1 Spear.[/STRIKE]

Forward the Chariots.

The capital is his only city and is worth 3, +6 for the axe. so 9k + 22k = 31k -> 8k unaccounted for.

We know now 2 of that 8k was a warrior in the north with the axe.

So 6k unaccounted for. Either an Axe or a Spear + Warrior IMO still. Or an empty capital with Archery, but then if that's the case we've won.

So possibilites are 2 axes, 1 warrior; or 1 axe, 1 spear, 1 warrior.

He could also have a forge instead of a warrior in either case.

Now he gets his next turn and has gained 7,000 soldier points and 18 points all told.

1000 points are for the 8th pop. So 6,000 points to explain. He has no Copper and no Horses. I think he teched Archery, since he only grew 1 pop. Then we have 3 missing points I can't explain.

So to recap. Sian has in field right now either:

14000 soldier points of units, an Axe and a Warrior account for 8k of it, leaving 6k.

2 units + 1 - 3 units (3 warriors, spear/warrior, axe).

Next turn he'll double-whip an Archer in all likelihood and be "safe" while we heal up and figure out how to crack him.

[AutomatedTeller]

ok - save is in.

In the north, his axe/warrior moved next to our axe/holkan. We should (clearly) attack them. What I'm not sure of is if we should go axe on axe and then holkan on axe/warrior, or sacrifice the holkan to hurt the axe enough to get odds on it. What do you think?

Also, ozzy has a chariot in the area, that can move on Chiton. I think we should move the holkan back to hold that city and not tempt him.

[AutomatedTeller]

The north:



I really want to kill that axe - I think that holkan/axe is best - axe/holkan runs the risk of maybe hurting his axe enough that the holkan attacks the warrior and lets the axe live. And, losing the holkan will make our finances marginally better

The south:



Ozzy's chariot can hit Chiton and we don't have anything to defend it. If i was him, I'd consider doing so to raze it, so I'd like to move the holkan back. it won't really help us all that much on Loincloth

I moved the scout to see his capital, and took this pic:



That's an archer. he'll get another. 2 archers with a 60% defense isn't going to be fun, but it's on flat land, so that helps.

Can we take it with 4 axes, 2 chariots and whatever else we can get there?

[Sareln]

The north:



I really want to kill that axe - I think that holkan/axe is best - axe/holkan runs the risk of maybe hurting his axe enough that the holkan attacks the warrior and lets the axe live. And, losing the holkan will make our finances marginally better

The south:



Ozzy's chariot can hit Chiton and we don't have anything to defend it. If i was him, I'd consider doing so to raze it, so I'd like to move the holkan back. it won't really help us all that much on Loincloth

I moved the scout to see his capital, and took this pic:



That's an archer. he'll get another. 2 archers with a 60% defense isn't going to be fun, but it's on flat land, so that helps.

Can we take it with 4 axes, 2 chariots and whatever else we can get there?

My intuition says no, let me calculate a bit.

If we feel we absolutely have to play the turn, what I would do is do the 50/50 axe fight. If we win, we use the holkan to take out the warrior and if the Axe has 5 xp on it, advance. Since we can take Combat I and Medic I. If we lose, fall back and be content with our gains while we tech currency -> construction and pillage out the road to Chiton.

[Sareln]

My intuition says no, let me calculate a bit.

If we feel we absolutely have to play the turn, what I would do is do the 50/50 axe fight. If we win, we use the holkan to take out the warrior and if the Axe has 5 xp on it, advance. Since we can take Combat I and Medic I. If we lose, fall back and be content with our gains while we tech currency -> construction and pillage out the road to Chiton.

[STRIKE]Unpromoted Axemen kill archers at 2:1 or 3:1 ratios depending on the odds you want (0.827 & 0.982 respectively). So to take such a position with 2 archers and 4 axemen would be about 0.827 * 0.982 ~= 82%[/STRIKE]

EDIT: Archers are +50% in cities, not +25%

Not counting the warrior naturally.

[Sareln]

[STRIKE]Unpromoted Axemen kill archers at 2:1 or 3:1 ratios depending on the odds you want (0.827 & 0.982 respectively). So to take such a position with 2 archers and 4 axemen would be about 0.827 * 0.982 ~= 82%[/STRIKE]

EDIT: Archers are +50% in cities, not +25%

Not counting the warrior naturally.

Odds are terrible. Take the opportunistic strike and see what happens, then fall back, consolidate, and return with Axes & Swords or HA's. No metals means he is dead man walking, esp. if we kill that last Axe.