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[SPOILERS] JR4 tries his luck in PB 37

TURN 60

Ok, I went ahead and played the turn, as I have to go to bed soon. Of the first 60 turns this was the most difficult one to play by far. I moved up the axe 1N, confirmed that no other units were in sight and... declared war!
   

The axe took the combat 1 promotion. (It could have taken CR 1 (or waited until next turn)  instead, but I went for safety first as we really need to keep our units alive. It`s also closer to shock if it can win a battle. The chariot was moved nearer to the front and could join in if necessary. I thought long and hard about what to do with the settler and worker on Muqa`s hill and decided to let the settler stay in Muqa and move the worker SE - SW - SW to the forest. It`s obviously not ideal to let it wander without doing something, but it`s well placed for a chop in Borte or a road to the coming NW city. The worker on the silver finished the road. Muqa is building a granary (beautiful timing with the 60/60 hammers in the granary btw!).

The warrior in the NW confirmed that it`s a peninsula up there. Another food source is nice as well, though we might have to rework our dot map a bit.


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Here are the graphs. Still no sign of a dtay power surge. He`s really running light on military here!


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Okay, great to see we're tops in power in our region still (as of the beginning of last turn atleast)!  There's still a worst-case scenario possibility where we'd want that axe in Muqa:  If he has a chariot on one of the two fogged tiles in his culture, north of the river, and has a couple of workers there, he could plant the city and hit our axe with the chariot next turn.  The chance should be remote, but if it were true, it would absolutely be the worst case scenario. We'd still have some options to defend Muqa even without the axe and even if he decided to threaten it (almost certainly not in this circumstance) but they wouldn't be pretty. I do think the chance is remote enough (he'd be leaving his previously-warlike CML border ~defenseless, and it isn't clear that he actually has a chariot at all) that I'd absolutely risk it, but ... well, we'll see!
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[EDIT: I think if you see this before dtay logs in, it might be a good idea to move our chariot into Muqa itself, even though this would slow its return to the rest of the empire should it have cause to do so. This gives us maximum flexibility in the dtay theater - for instance, if he leaves his Impi in place on the jungle, promoting it Shock and daring us to take odds with our axe that wouldn't be much better than a coin flip, perhaps moving his Settler back to wait for reinforcements, we could move the Chariot and Settler up together T61 without leaving the Settler vulnerable to the Impi, and therefore allowing us to found the city T62. Obviously once dtay logs in though, we're done making moves and changes for the turn. Normally, we wouldn't make any changes after ending turn regardless, just as a matter of turn order communication and courtesy, but as long as dtay hasn't logged in at all, a single unit move (if you want to make one) isn't going to upset anything.]

Oh. Something else I just noticed in one of the screenshots above that I'm glad we're finding out now instead of at a time when it would kill us:

(January 7th, 2017, 07:19)Krill Wrote: Change log: Change log 2.0.8.3

Zulu: Impi: Zulu unique unit: spearman replacement: Strength 4, 2 movement points. +100% against mounted units, -40% against archers. Cost 35 hammers, requires Hunting, copper or iron.

So, my understanding was that Impis got to keep their 2 movement points (unlike in Tides of War, where they got a huge Withdraw chance instead) but took a penalty against archers (it would take me a little while to explain why I think this is not a good change, but whatever) and lost their free Mobility promotion - partly because SevenSpirits demonstrated some time ago just how broken it was on a unit available at Bronze Working. But then I looked at the picture in which you were hovering over the Impi. Surprise! In spite of the changelog, Impis still have free mobility! That shouldn't hurt us in this situation, so this is very much the right time to find out about it; in the future, we'll know to take this into account. Okay!

Well done promoting the axe to C1, by the way. I don't know how dtay's going to react here, but this should help him refrain fom Choosing Unwisely (and ensure that for him to get lucky, he'd have to get really lucky). If he does end up planting there and reinforcing the city so we can't take it, his front city will be on flat land, and its only workable resource tiles would be right on a hostile border - and in the third ring of a holy city.

Also note GJ founded his fourth city (before you played) this turn. It's hard to tell for sure from the shot of Toregene, but it looks like he didn't plant toward our jungle region, so if true, that's definitely a good thing!

Oh, and civstats is making it look like Coeurva, having just auto-razed a Chinese city a couple turns ago, decided to auto-raze a CML city this turn as an encore! Whatever else might be said about this game, it's not going to be boring!
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I moved the chariot into Muqa. It`s probably a good idea to have another unit close to the front. Note that dtay still hasn`t connected his furs. None of the resources on his east coast were connected either. Joey hasn`t settled in our direction this time. I guess the jungle area didn`t appeal to him.

Hmmm, I must say that worst case scenario is a bit scary. In principle he could have it all lined up: 2 workers and a chariot waiting for the trap to slam shut. I agree that the chances of that happening is rather low. A more realistic case is dtay moving in another impi to his new city, daring us to take a chance. Anyway, we have to be very careful not to let his impis take a cheap shot at one of our cities. They can go a long way in just two turns! Good thing you found out about that change log not being entirely correct.


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Okay, yeah, that's pretty definitive: The latest GJ city went in a different direction. Great!

Some of dtay's resources may well be connected though: We would have to defog the tiles again to see any tile improvements, including different yields. The only things that update in the fog are:

1) Cities whose center tile you've see since they last came into existence or changed hands (city size, buildings, and I believe religions and connection to your trade network are all visible)

2) Features (e.g. forest/jungle/floodplain) that grow or are destroyed by a chop or a city being planted on them.

3) Previously-hidden resources revealed by your new technology.

4) The base tile yields of hidden-to-you resources that have been revealed to a civilization that controls the relevant tile. So if our scout had gotten vision on the copper at dtay's capital when it passed by, we would now see it as a grassland copper tile with no forest but a 2/1/0 yield. We would have to actually move a unit close enough to defog the tile again to discover it also has a mine and a road.

[EDIT AGAIN:
5) Resources "popped" from a mine or otherwise added to the map, e.g. because of a random event - the latter not relevant for this game.

6) Changes to the base terrain itself, e.g. when a desert spawns due to Global Warming. I think. This is not going to be relevant for a long time in this game though, and it's possible the Global Warming effect was removed altogether in this mod; I hope so.]
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(June 29th, 2017, 02:52)RefSteel Wrote: (it would take me a little while to explain why I think this is not a good change, but whatever)

I'd be curious to hear your reasoning.  It feels like a random, disconnected nerf, but I haven't really been able to articulate why I feel that way about it.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker

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Well, it looks like the turn won't roll until it's late at night in Europe, but from civstats, it looks like we've got great news: dtay played his turn in four minutes flat and didn't found a city! This suggests to me that after seeing our axe and warrior last turn, he realized we might call his bluff and prepared a plan of retreat in case we did. We still won't know any details until tomorrow morning (hopefully for both of us; I really need to start getting to sleep at a more reasonable hour - don't worry, that's not the fault of following this game!) and the tactical situation may still be highly complex - it's even possible that he hasn't actually retreated - but we aren't facing the worst-case scenario at least!

It also looks like dtay didn't whip anything, which is probably also a good sign. Presumably he correctly inferred that our war declaration was just our way of saying, "Back off: That's the wrong place for a city."

(Mardoc, I'll try to explain if I find some time. I think I understand why that nerf was made, but it certainly feels random and disconnected in spite of that, and I think it's an annoying kluge that doesn't resolve the underlying problem. Also: Thanks for continuing to follow our thread along with the general state of the game! It's always good to know somebody else is out there reading along!)
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Yes, it sure looks like dtay backed off, though we can`t be totally sure before the turn rolls. That is indeed very good news! I`ll play the turn tomorrow.

As I see it there are now 3 scenarios that we should prepare for.
1) Dtay has moved his settler and his impi away. Great for us, we move up the settler and found the city next turn.
2) Another impi joins his existing impi. I`m unsure if we should attack. We`ll have a bit over 70 % odds, but can`t really afford to lose. If he moves both his impis to threaten Muqa on turn 62 we have a problem, to put t mildly. It would be a weird standoff until one of us brings more units.
3) A chariot shows up on the banana to join the impi. This is probably the worst unit to encounter for us, as we really don`t want to have a lone axe on flatland next to a chariot. Maybe we can move the axe back to the desert hill to be covered by the chariot and the warrior and ask for peace? Am I being too cautious here?

EDIT: I think we have to make a decision on where to move the settler on turn 61. We can`t have him sit around in Muqa for too long.
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(June 29th, 2017, 13:39)RefSteel Wrote: (Mardoc, I'll try to explain if I find some time.  I think I understand why that nerf was made, but it certainly feels random and disconnected in spite of that, and I think it's an annoying kluge that doesn't resolve the underlying problem.
Of course, take your time. It's a general game design philosophy question, not anything vital or urgent.

I understand why the consensus is that Impi needed to be nerfed. I don't particularly like the approach Krill took, but I haven't been able to think of anything I liked better either. Maybe a better articulation of the 'underlying problem' would clear that up for me.
Quote: Also:  Thanks for continuing to follow our thread along with the general state of the game!  It's always good to know somebody else is out there reading along!)
Absolutely, I'm following with great interest, in enough detail to make me nervous about making any substantial relevant comments wink.
EitB 25 - Perpentach
Occasional mapmaker

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