WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[zakalwe]

A deliberate no kill from scum seems unlikely, so Azarius' claim is pretty strong if it isn't contested. And if he is scum, he could also have claimed to jail someone else who was less trusted, with much more disruptive results, likely leading to a mislynch. So to be precise, the combination of not killing and then claiming to jail Novice seems unlikely.

I'll join you on Jowy for now, Gazglum. Though I must warn you yourself that you still stand out as the most logical lynch.

Gazglum, you can rest assured that I would be gunning hard for three consecutive mislynches if I were scum with MJW on my team.

Why?

Straight mislynches until we win is my preferred game plan in small games. And I view MJW as a strong scum player, so that would be all the more reason to go for it.

[zakalwe]

Though I must warn you yourself that you still stand out as the most logical lynch.

Shuffle the words randomly and this sentence should make sense.

[Gazglum]

Oh I read you loud and clear Zak...

I don't think Azza and Mattimeo can be scum-buddies, so if Azarius and me are both innocent that means that at least one scum vote had to be on MJW. You also said yourself that you didn't see me and Azza as buddies, and I think a replay of Glum/Mattimeo looks unlikely to all, so that still gives us a scum vote on MJW.

[Azarius]

Thank you Novice for the post sorting script. I just installed it and it works great. For instance, it made it much easier to go back and look at Mattimeo's posts again following his vote for me. The closest he has come to suspicion of me all game long was when he implied that Azza got me to point out him saying he wasn't scum hunting. For the most part he has hardly mentioned me at all. Now today I am suddenly worthy of his vote. The same list with his vote for me has to my eyes, several very questionable reads.. He is also trying to plant the idea that he believes that Jowy was the prevented night kill.

[Qgqqqqq]

Ok, didnt expect to be attacked, but fair enough.

Did check the thread a few times in the period I was silent from my phone, but generally saw nothing that demanded I jump on.

Also concider it co-incidence or not, but that period I was posting low was my weekend. You may not feel its ethical for me to keep going missing of a weekend, but thats definetly not a scum tell on me.

As for a proper defense... I am not exactly sure what I am being accused of here

I guess my main questions would be,

- Did you vote MJW on Day 2 to pressure him to give clearer opinions, or because you thought he was scum?
- If you thought he was scum, what had changed since Day 1 to make the case on him? You mentioned hypocrisy about the CH voters, but I didn't really follow what you mean there.

I remember you have weekend troubles from previous games, so that is a fair point.

The main point of all that was I wanted to raise that I can see a plausible scenario where you are scum (a good scum), and I don't think people should be clearing you as town. I don't think there is enough there to vote you.

You might be right about I'm letting Mattimeo off too much now. But after rereading, Azarius has become my top suspect, and Day 2 Azarius and MJW were both voting Mattimeo, and that doesn't makes sense to me if they were all three wolf buddies. They could instead have ganged up on Jowy, for example.

If Azarius was lynched and came up innocent, that would bring Mattimeo up to a scum candidate again for me.

This looks weird to me. You can see the scenario where he is scum and don't want him prematurely cleared. Why then, are you listing him as (among) your top suspects if you don't have any case/tells/feel on him? This feels clutching at straws rather then actually seeing a scum tell.
The rest of it also seems to be complete interaction tells, which always feel really sketchy to me, especially considering MJW behaves unpredictably.

...
Q, you're right that the posts you quoted isn't strong evidence in itself. What it showed to me was that a player who hasn't been contributing that much, also hasn't been very original when he does contribute.
...

A lot of people haven't contributed much, and I'd say his posts on those subjects were decent-good. Possibly the worse thing about lurking is we rarely see original reactions, but I don't think that really diminishes from the stance he took.

The Jkaen thing was just a theory, I know its tenuous, and it was a reaction to my feeling that Jkaen was getting an unearned level of town credit. I am currently working on the theory that Azarius is scum, and that is what has informed my rankings of other people as well.

Independent of this, do you have any strong reads on people? Because this is how it felt too, like you were basing your reads off stuff we don't know, and the long theories look based around that.
What was particularly noticeable about their interactions with each other versus others? I may have missed it, but I didn't see what made them special as a pair - you even said the run-through showed it was tentative.

I read the posts Q, I just skim read them.

8:50 am: I see the vote count on page 34, vote Mattimeo because I see its MJW vs Matt 4v3 (it was actually 5v3 at that point, I'd missed Jowy's vote)

The vote ended ten minutes later. I read the intervening pages voting Mattimeo, so the initial vote was just a reaction to the lynch tally, but what I read probably pushed my Jowy suspicion down a little and did nothing for my Mattimeo suspicion.

So you didn't wake up then (as you said earlier), you reached then in the thread then? Or did you start at the end because you were so close to the lynch? You're talking about half an hour and 10 mins at alternate junctions, and I'm still not quite sure what happened.
To put it another way, did you skim read the posts (and thus push Jowy down) BEFORE or AFTER you posted voting for Matt?

Agree totally, if someone has certain proof on someone, don't post it until ~2hrs before the lynch.

Umm... I'd appreciate being able to view the proof before the lynch is resolved.

If you have a certain proof that someone is scum, the best play is to post so as late as possible and still swing everyone around in time. (This is to maximise interaction tells for later, and stop discussion shutting down a la WW26). As the lynch result is certain as a result, it doesn't matter whether individual players are online in time to read it, only that suffecient do to lynch the offender.
As this game is smaller, you may be right about posting a bit earlier to be certain to swing the lynch, but I think just based off who was online in the last 2 hrs Day 2 (MJW, Jowy, Gazglum, me, novice, Zak maybe even Azza) I think 2 hrs are easily enough.

Exactly, we have a 48 hour day, what is everybodys obsession with doing all the reveals and vote swinging in the last couple of hours when half the players are in bed?

Maximum interaction tells. Reason 229 for a majority lynch...

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

IMO MJW is allowed to get away with murder (possibly literally ) because of his post style. He's almost always a candidate at some stage, but people always say something about how he's just fitting in with his normal style of crazy meta and he gets off. I mean, look through his posts at how horrible they are in terms of actually talking about people (the only one he did do took forever to get him to post it, and even then it was wishy-washy about everyone), and yet people still saw him as village because of his posting style.

[Qgqqqqq]

[quote='Mattimeo' pid='411560' dateline='1378045385']
[quote='Jkaen' pid='411463' dateline='1378024370']
...
[/quote]
Agreed for the most part, but I think I would have preferred if that remained individual assumed knowledge, rather than general.
What?
[quote][quote='Gazglum' pid='411497' dateline='1378031490']
...
[/quote]
3-3 -> town loss.

Best case in the day is tie vote, then scum kills at night.
Would require silly rules / successful protective roles for it to be even possible for town win.

Oh. Right.[/quote]
Again, what? Even with protective roles 3:3 is generally an automatic scum win (because it would be stupid for scum to win or lose based off the RNG) so we would need a weird concept for it to be different, and that doesn't seem to fit into the current concept of the game (with low-shot - and therefore weakened - power roles that are largely standard).

[quote][quote='Qgqqqqq' pid='411487' dateline='1378029948']
Loving the no-kill!
Would be funny if they're going for a no-kill bluff
[/quote]
Not liking that comment. We've had enough pointless speculation on irrelevancies / exceedingly unlikely situations in this game already.[/quote]
This was a (IMO) obvious joke on those.
[quote][quote='Azza' pid='411532' dateline='1378036602']
[quote='Qgqqqqq' pid='411515' dateline='1378034951']
Agree totally, if someone has certain proof on someone, don't post it until ~2hrs before the lynch.
[/quote]

Umm... I'd appreciate being able to view the proof before the lynch is resolved.
[/quote]
Agreed, with a substantial portion of the game having lynch at 07:00 or 09:00, would probably want a good ~10 hours lead time for anything pivotal and 'last minute'.

Of course, significantly more time than that is generally useful, for actual analysis.[/quote]
What analysis do you need to do?
If someone roleblocked and there was a no-kill, that's a pretty obvious person to vote for. Interaction analysis can come later.

[quote='Azza' pid='411551' dateline='1378042830']
[quote]
And now for Mattimeo's complete lack of communicable logic leanings:
Jowy - town. With thanks whoever had his back last night.[/quote]
This...sounds a bit like a scum slip. Why do you think Jowy was targeted last night?
[quote]Gazglum - was leaning scum overnight. Today is making me think town, both from his actions and the initial'spread' of votes. Interesting that our opinions of each other have bost shifted positively since the lynch...
zakalwa - probably town.[/quote]
Why?
[quote]novice - completely unreasonable paranoia says possible scum. Definitely no actual facts backing this up :/
Qgqqqqq - Qgqqqqq. Therefore slight scum lean 'cause I'm lazy. Most likely to be scum of those who finished the day on MJW.[/quote]
Why am I an automatic scum lean? (is it no. of posts?) And why am I most likely to be scum (ahead of novice who you are also unreasoningly paranoid about)? Do you have any reasons why my posts make this?
[quote]Jkaen - slight town lean. Mainly from lack of major tells either way, other than presence on MJW. Posts seem generally useful.
Azza - scum lean. Has seemed out of character; more aggressive than usual. Though that's probably a null tell. More importantly, he needs to be scum so I can maintain an "only have voted for scum" record.
Azarius - posts generally appear to look useful, but also to have been specifically intended for that. Not liking his reaction to the lack of a kill.
[/quote]
I find it interesting that you jump on a train...

I really don't like this post, Mattimeo.

More to come. Eventually

Why is this post blank?
Reposted.
Edit:And that one?!??!?

[Mattimeo]

And now for Mattimeo's complete lack of communicable logic leanings:
Jowy - town. With thanks whoever had his back last night.

What does this mean?

That it's more amusing to phrase "I thought Jowy would have been killed last night" in the way it was phrased than stating it lamely like I just did.
Why? Were you trying to probe as to why your hit on Jowy didn't go through?

I considered saying this right at the beginning of the day, but decided to wait and give time for some discussion to happen without this information. I also considered just staying quiet, but I feel that everyone knowing what happened will do more good than harm. I am a jailer. Last night, working under the assumption that Novice was town, I jailed him. I felt this was the right thing to do for several reasons. I have believed him to be town now for a while. Also, I was fairly confident that he would be the scum target tonight. The Serdoa kill on night one seemed to be the most obvious kill to me, and that's what they went for. It stood to reason then that they would go for the obvious kill again last night. It would be preferable to jail a scum and therefore stop a kill AND have a smoking gun to lynch a scum, but I felt much more confident in Novice being town than I do in anyone in particular being scum. That being said, I realize it is theoretically possible that Novice is scum and was performing the night kill last night, but I find that extremely unlikely. Considering that we lost two power roles in the first two deaths, I felt it was important to try to get what felt like a more sure benefit from mine than to try for a bigger play and possibly get nothing. Given most people's stated views of Novice, I was feeling fairly confident that it would work as I hoped. I threw in the Novice being clearly town comment near the end of the day for good measure. I actually began doubting my course of action when Merovech posted that he could only do a short write up would have to wait a few hours. Why would there be anything but a short write up if I was set to prevent the night kill? Ultimately I figured I had to stick with what I decided and not try to second guess myself based off over-thinking his comment. I've read through up to here, and so far I'd say waiting was the right thing to do. Going to reread now and comment on things since day start.

As zak has said, lack of a counter-claim basically confirms this. And I suppose to had to claim to save yourself. Sorry about contributing to that.

I'll go back to Jowy, for now, for being generally scummy yesterday and bringing MJW up to 5 versus Mattimeo's 3 only when it seemed locked in at 4v3. Then talking up how he made 'the hard choice' and saying how he doubted a sacrifice was made on MJW.

...because a 4-4 coin flip isn't worth risking?
I mean, of all the people on the MJW wagon who could be scum, you pick one who not only cast effectively the deciding vote (gaurantee MJW death rather than coin flip between us), but has numerous documentation supporting a choice to keep me alive over MJW?
Gazglum

ninja edit: you're good at this quoting business, Qgqqqqq

[Qgqqqqq]

What has happened to my posts???
They're all just one post, so I'll delete all but the final. I know you can quote them to see them, but I can't get them to display

[Qgqqqqq]

...

Jowy calmed down a bit and finally posted some content while I was asleep, so that put Mattimeo higher for me. At lynch I was fairly sure, if not convinced because you can never be convinced, that Mattimeo was scum. And because it was then a 2 horse race and I doubted the wolves would have managed to let themselves both up on the block, I therefore assumed MJW was innocent.

What about Jowy's responses caused you to move him back below Matt on your suspect list?

Okay so the bolded part was what I tried to trap Gazglum on. It is pretty suspect - how could Jowy go below Mattimeo on the suspect list without Gazglum having time to read what Jowy posted while Mattimeo was sleeping. The reason for my line of inquiry in the first place is of course that I suspected that Mattimeo's hurried posting before deadline was not aimed at lynching Mattimeo but at saving MJW.

It would have been more damning if Gaz had responded to my question above by elaborating on how this-and-that in Jowy's nightly posts caused him to vote Mattimeo instead, but he didn't say that directly. Instead he clarified that he skimmed the thread, saw that Jowy had posted some stuff, voted Mattimeo since it was a two horse race, and later reread Jowy's posts. If you reread the bolded statements above, he just says that Jowy "posted some content".

So I guess Gaz may be innocent. I guess I need to reread then, I've been busy writing a script to do the boring work for me instead.

Check it out here by the way.

I still don't think he's explained himself properly - he definitely seemed to talk about two different things, with having read the thread and seeing it at the time and subconsciously pushing him down and going back and rereading either before or after the lynch. It doesn't seem to really follow all of them.
That script is awesome BTW.

...

Ok. Personally, I never had a problem with MJW's style and regard him as a strong player, both as town and as scum. And I don't think he actually gets lynched very often. (Apart from when Ichabod decides to take the plunge...) In any case, I didn't mean to say that sacrificing MJW would be unthinkable. But I think the claim that he was living on borrowed time already was unfounded.

While I'm not sure I'd put him as a strong player, I also don't see him as easily lynchable. That's unlike Tasunke, who also posts a bunch of crazy theories but often gets himself lynched as a result - his crazy style seems to be just normal enough that he doesn't do something like lying (anymore) and keeps it to theories/meta tells on over people, that he avoids the lynch.

[I am a Jailor who protected novice]
I actually began doubting my course of action when Merovech posted that he could only do a short write up would have to wait a few hours. Why would there be anything but a short write up if I was set to prevent the night kill? Ultimately I figured I had to stick with what I decided and not try to second guess myself based off over-thinking his comment. I've read through up to here, and so far I'd say waiting was the right thing to do. Going to reread now and comment on things since day start.

Well done
I think I've generally agreed with your reads all game, I definitely thought novice was the obvious kill target.

A bit confused by the bolded sentence though - wouldn't there obviously be a short writeup if nothing was to happen, so why would you doubt it after he said there would be one?[/s] Edit: next quote clarifies
While I don't think you should say how many shots you are/were, did you protect anyone night 1?
And this as well. I really should read ahead

Well...that takes the wind out of my sails. Unless someone counterclaims. I was kind of expecting a jailer, I just really wasn't expecting it to be you.

I'll go back to Jowy, for now, for being generally scummy yesterday and bringing MJW up to 5 versus Mattimeo's 3 only when it seemed locked in at 4v3. Then talking up how he made 'the hard choice' and saying how he doubted a sacrifice was made on MJW.

Why were you expecting a Jailor with a Baner already revealed?
What is scummy about taking it to a 5vs3?

And I know I put Jkaen and Zak up above Jowy before, but I was thinking of Azarian scumbuddies. Now I'm back to square one.

This is what I find suspicious about your hunting - you basically have only scumhunted based off Azarius, and I don't think you're case on him was strong.

A deliberate no kill from scum seems unlikely, so Azarius' claim is pretty strong if it isn't contested. And if he is scum, he could also have claimed to jail someone else who was less trusted, with much more disruptive results, likely leading to a mislynch. So to be precise, the combination of not killing and then claiming to jail Novice seems unlikely.

This sums it up nicely, I feel strongly for Azarius' innocence now.

I'll join you on Jowy for now, Gazglum. Though I must warn you yourself that you still stand out as the most logical lynch.

This sounds scummy...like you're leaving it open for jumping back on. I mean I get the pressure vote/exploring options, but still...

I don't think Azza and Mattimeo can be scum-buddies, so if Azarius and me are both innocent that means that at least one scum vote had to be on MJW. You also said yourself that you didn't see me and Azza as buddies, and I think a replay of Glum/Mattimeo looks unlikely to all, so that still gives us a scum vote on MJW.

Why not the first? I don't think Azza has been aggressively on him.

The closest he [Matt] has come to suspicion of me all game long was when he implied that Azza got me to point out him saying he wasn't scum hunting. For the most part he has hardly mentioned me at all. Now today I am suddenly worthy of his vote. The same list with his vote for me has to my eyes, several very questionable reads.. He is also trying to plant the idea that he believes that Jowy was the prevented night kill.

Agreed. I can't remember if I did so in the last post, or if it counts as is, but Mattimeo.

...

That it's more amusing to phrase "I thought Jowy would have been killed last night" in the way it was phrased than stating it lamely like I just did.
Why? Were you trying to probe as to why your hit on Jowy didn't go through?

Why on earth do you think Jowy would be night killed???

...because a 4-4 coin flip isn't worth risking?
I mean, of all the people on the MJW wagon who could be scum, you pick one who not only cast effectively the deciding vote (gaurantee MJW death rather than coin flip between us), but has numerous documentation supporting a choice to keep me alive over MJW?
Gazglum

He didn't cast the deciding vote (at the time it was 4:3) unless you assume a Jowy-Gaz scumpair (which I don't). I think he's the least decisive vote there personally. And so do others (myself for instance but also Jkaen at least, and probably novice/zak too...which makes everyone). He was probably the least confident for you over MJW, I think he only voiced it when he voted in the last 15 minutes.
I am really not getting your posts lately...

ninja edit: you're good at this quoting business, Qgqqqqq

Has this happened to you before? If so, why does it happen???
Its also a lot about you, so worth reading through (via quoting).

[Qgqqqqq]

This is post 466

[quote='Mattimeo' pid='411560' dateline='1378045385']
[quote='Jkaen' pid='411463' dateline='1378024370']
...
[/quote]
Agreed for the most part, but I think I would have preferred if that remained individual assumed knowledge, rather than general.[/quote]
What?
[quote][quote='Gazglum' pid='411497' dateline='1378031490']
...
[/quote]
3-3 -> town loss.

Best case in the day is tie vote, then scum kills at night.
Would require silly rules / successful protective roles for it to be even possible for town win.

Oh. Right.[/quote]
Again, what? Even with protective roles 3:3 is generally an automatic scum win (because it would be stupid for scum to win or lose based off the RNG) so we would need a weird concept for it to be different, and that doesn't seem to fit into the current concept of the game (with low-shot - and therefore weakened - power roles that are largely standard).

[quote][quote='Qgqqqqq' pid='411487' dateline='1378029948']
Loving the no-kill!
Would be funny if they're going for a no-kill bluff
[/quote]
Not liking that comment. We've had enough pointless speculation on irrelevancies / exceedingly unlikely situations in this game already.[/quote]
This was a (IMO) obvious joke on those.
[quote][quote='Azza' pid='411532' dateline='1378036602']
[quote='Qgqqqqq' pid='411515' dateline='1378034951']
Agree totally, if someone has certain proof on someone, don't post it until ~2hrs before the lynch.
[/quote]

Umm... I'd appreciate being able to view the proof before the lynch is resolved.
[/quote]
Agreed, with a substantial portion of the game having lynch at 07:00 or 09:00, would probably want a good ~10 hours lead time for anything pivotal and 'last minute'.

Of course, significantly more time than that is generally useful, for actual analysis.[/quote]
What analysis do you need to do?
If someone roleblocked and there was a no-kill, that's a pretty obvious person to vote for. Interaction analysis can come later.

[quote='Azza' pid='411551' dateline='1378042830']
[quote]
And now for Mattimeo's complete lack of communicable logic leanings:
Jowy - town. With thanks whoever had his back last night.[/quote]
This...sounds a bit like a scum slip. Why do you think Jowy was targeted last night?
[quote]Gazglum - was leaning scum overnight. Today is making me think town, both from his actions and the initial'spread' of votes. Interesting that our opinions of each other have bost shifted positively since the lynch...
zakalwa - probably town.[/quote]
Why?
[quote]novice - completely unreasonable paranoia says possible scum. Definitely no actual facts backing this up :/
Qgqqqqq - Qgqqqqq. Therefore slight scum lean 'cause I'm lazy. Most likely to be scum of those who finished the day on MJW.[/quote]
Why am I an automatic scum lean? (is it no. of posts?) And why am I most likely to be scum (ahead of novice who you are also unreasoningly paranoid about)? Do you have any reasons why my posts make this?
[quote]Jkaen - slight town lean. Mainly from lack of major tells either way, other than presence on MJW. Posts seem generally useful.
Azza - scum lean. Has seemed out of character; more aggressive than usual. Though that's probably a null tell. More importantly, he needs to be scum so I can maintain an "only have voted for scum" record.
Azarius - posts generally appear to look useful, but also to have been specifically intended for that. Not liking his reaction to the lack of a kill.
[/quote]
I find it interesting that you jump on a train...

I really don't like this post, Mattimeo.

More to come. Eventually

Why is this post blank?
Reposted.
Edit:And that one?!??!?