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[SPOILERS] scooter's Industrial Revolution

In Nationalism currently, right? Core should be safe enough. How about drafting a rifle army and burning a few of his recent conquests by boat?
Travelling on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam.
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Got this from Dreylin:

Dreylin Wrote:Hi scooter,

We are at war; sorry about making it a 3-way split, but that's how it shook out.

What are your feelings on logging in outside the turnsplit to review the situation? I'm easy either way.

Dreylin.

I wrote back and just said I don't have a problem with logging in outside of your split so long as actual moves aren't happening. I don't expect any issues there.

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I agree that they just want this city. Sure looks like they've decided that making an enemy of us is worth capturing what will be a size 1 city with no infrastructure. My goal is still to win, so I don't see any need to do anything rash in response, but hopefully we'll get some revenge further down the road.

I think I agree with your tactical assessment, but there's a chance they may be looking to raze and replace. I don't think that necessarily changes anything, so I'm leaning towards the 1W and wait move while loading up the 3 workers. Any strong feelings on where we want to deliver them? I'll go ahead and do some of the rest of the turn, and I'll revisit this tonight and finish the turn then.

Dreylin has irritated a few people now. May or may not end up mattering, but it's worth noting.
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(May 8th, 2016, 12:53)Dp101 Wrote: Good luck! If he went for your core, do you think you could live?

I don't think there's much in it for him. We could draft/whip heavily if needed to survive, and he'd have no chance. He came kind of close to not having the numbers to take Gaspar's capital despite Gaspar not mustering as many units as he could have if he was trying. Conquering us isn't possible. Damaging us - sure. But I don't think he'll try.

(May 8th, 2016, 13:50)Brian Shanahan Wrote: In Nationalism currently, right? Core should be safe enough. How about drafting a rifle army and burning a few of his recent conquests by boat?

REM is still in a very strong position, so I'm not willing to consider this to be a zero-sum setup just yet. Better to play the long game. Plus we have no Frigates/Privateers/SOTL yet, so our Galleons would be very vulnerable.
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A few stray things from in-game.

[Image: t295_workers.JPG]

I chose to finish the workshop here with 1 worker since the pasture is a 3T build. This allowed us to swap from horse to workshop (trading 1 beaker for 1 hammer) which is ever so slightly better here. Then both workers can complete the pasture next turn as they would have anyway. I also switched Induction to a Frigate. This is very much a tentative build, but I don't see as much value in building culture since we've got strong control over all those resources. If we can avoid pouring culture in more than necessary and irritating pindicator, I think that's worthwhile. We've got all the tiles we care about.

I figure we want a couple boats to ensure Dreylin doesn't harass us with some more Galleons, so that's why I queued up the Frigate. If you can think of a better idea, let me know.

[Image: t295_demos.JPG]

I was tempted to draw up a plan that would involve screwing with Dreylin's stack over in Gaspar's land, but then I reminded myself that we aren't really equipped to do this right now compared to Dreylin's still-growing power. It makes me slightly nervous that he's still building units instead of going into consolidation mode.
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I'm content with those moves - I'd also like to get a few frigates out, for eyes in the water if nothing else. I'll be home later tonight, and we'll try to coordinate over chat around 9:30pm (EST) or something thereafter.

Let's hope that declaring war on everyone else in an attempt to bully them will come back to bite Dreylin down the road. I'm not if they realize they've destroyed their trade route value with every team in the game other than REM at this point. smile
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(May 8th, 2016, 15:56)Sullla Wrote: Let's hope that declaring war on everyone else in an attempt to bully them will come back to bite Dreylin down the road.

Agreed - your position seems very solid, so you're in great shape if things go south for Dreylin.

Some thoughts on the tactical situation & thinking a turn ahead.

If you're planning on counter-attacking into the city, some combat odds to note for your units having good odds of surviving a counterattack (keep in mind he has 1 catapult):
C1 Pinch rifle vs. your C2 Pinch Rifle on a forest (your HP in parentheses, your odds to win):
100HP: 91%
81HP: 75%
80HP: 63%
69HP: 54%
68HP: 39%

C1 Rifle vs. your C2 Pinch Rifle on a forest:
100HP: 97%
78HP: 88%
77HP: 68%
65HP: 59%
64HP: 43%

Unpromoted Rifle vs. your C2 Pinch Rifle on a forest:
100HP: 99%
76HP: 90%
75HP: 82%
62HP: 73%
61HP: 46%

C1 Pinch Rifle vs. C2 Pinch Grenadier on a Forest:
100HP: 78%
87HP: 71%
86HP: 58%
73HP: 48%
72HP: 34%

C1 Rifle vs. C2 Pinch Grenadier on a Forest:
100HP: 90%
96HP: 82%
83HP: 75%
82HP: 63%

Unpromoted Rifle vs. C2 Pinch Grenadier on a Forest:
100HP: 96%
89HP: 90%
88HP: 83%
81HP: 79%
80HP: 67%
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Turn 295

[Image: t295_situation.JPG]

*white flag waived*

The worker that could run away did, and we loaded 3 workers up onto the Galleon. Promoted all 4 units to pinch and moved them onto the forest. Honestly, we weren't that far off from being able to survive this. We could have force-popped the borders with Caste to add some defenses, we weren't far from having a 5th unit, and our units had better promos. But they wisely didn't drag their feet. Anyway, we forced a pair of scientists just to extract some beakers out and call it a day. The poor work boat got to Antiseptic just in time to turn around and head back the other way. It'll wait to net the crabs.

[Image: t295_hope.JPG]

Something to keep an eye on: the Donovan/Dreylin peace treaty ends next turn. Really hoping Donovan slips in the revenge knife while Dreylin is off fighting everyone at once.

[Image: t295_broke.JPG]

Dreylin is also pretty broke. He's netting just 34 gpt at 0% science right now, and that's after bailing out of war civics. That'll improve quickly, but it underscores how far away his economy is from being respectable. We have to hope we can get to our targets quicker than he can consolidate.

Offered Dreylin a 10T treaty. He of course won't accept yet, but it'll let him know pre-turn that we will sign peace, so hopefully he'll re-offer. What we do next will depend slightly on whether or not he takes it.

REM gets SOL at end of turn it looks like. Great play by him. I think he's still a little ahead of us, particularly with us losing a city (that admittedly was going to take some serious effort before it was useful).

We do have pindicator's graphs, so here's the relevant set in spoilers:

[Image: t295_food.JPG]

[Image: t295_gnp.JPG]

[Image: t295_mfg.JPG]

Somehow I missed power, so the short of it is Dreylin's in 1st, Donovan 2nd, us 4th, pindicator 5th, which means REM is ahead of us in 3rd.


That wraps it up for this turn. This game certainly isn't boring!
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And now that I posted that and see my mistake, I'm gonna jump back in to swap Antiseptic to Build Research rather than culture. Almost missed that!
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[Image: t295_civstats.png]

It was one of THOSE turns.
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A few quick pre-turn notes.

[Image: t296_SOL.JPG]

As expected. 224g is pretty solid - I think we would have gotten less than 100g from wealth building (don't feel like doing the math, but it's 35% modifiers vs 135% modifiers).

[Image: t296_routes.JPG]

Getting REM's routes had a pretty dramatic effect. I'm pretty sure we are now getting a full set of foreign routes from every city.

[Image: t296_spinningjenny.JPG]

The island cities are even more productive because they get IC routes. Those routes are as good as what we're getting in our size 14 capital, and they're better than all our non-capital mainland cities.

[Image: t296_dreylin_cash.JPG]

Unfortunately, REM is now giving routes to Dreylin too, and it has a pretty large impact on Dreylin's bottom line. That's a 23gpt jump.

I'm hoping REM will be paying attention and will notice he can fill up most of his routes with us, Donovan, and BGN, which would leave Dreylin out to collect the scraps. If he can get OB with those guys, losing Dreylin's routes would be a very small hit to him and a large one to Dreylin. REM is playing very well this game, so I am pretty sure he'll be paying attention. There's the chance though that he doesn't view Dreylin to be quite the boogeyman we do due to his position and geographic situation. REM generally has better aggression targets than we do, for example.
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