[SPOILER] PB37 Dark Savant tries not to be a blatant MP n00b

[Dark Savant]

I just realized I zoomed out that screenshot of Gavagai's territory too far to see where Konya is -- it's directly on the silver tile, on the coast due south of Room 101.  So Gavagai expanded in Krill's direction more than is apparent in that screenshot.

They're already not that far away from touching borders, which Krill is no doubt concerned about.

[ipecac]

Krill is very likely trying to get us to attack Gavagai.

An early island city doesn't matter that much. Circumnavigation is a game-long bonus, and GLH lasts for quite long, so we don't need to get an island city that early.

It doesn't seem like going chariot-heavy is a good idea, because Gavagai will likely get a spear in Ankara relatively quickly

He can't, not if you play it right. Move chariots to Castleview on the 2nd half of the turn. Gavagai's defense will only be what is in range of the city, because you can hit the city with chariots before his whips are processed.

[Dark Savant]

Krill is very likely trying to get us to attack Gavagai.

Gavagai does happen to have a vulnerability -- he may well be the only player in the game whose neighbors have contact with each other.

An early island city doesn't matter that much. Circumnavigation is a game-long bonus, and GLH lasts for quite long, so we don't need to get an island city that early.

Okay, understood.

He can't, not if you play it right. Move chariots to Castleview on the 2nd half of the turn. Gavagai's defense will only be what is in range of the city, because you can hit the city with chariots before his whips are processed.

I meant that he'll probably get a spear in there while we're getting an attacking force together.

The attack should probably be timed to hit on t84, since he's getting another +20% defensive bonus on t85.

He currently has an axe and an archer there.  I'm assuming that he'll get a spear in there sometime before t84.

It will take ~6 chariots for defeating the spear, ~3 for the archer, and ~2 for the axe (even those get odds on chariots here).  Add in another chariot or two for RNG safety, and that's 12-ish chariots.  I haven't done the micro, but offhand I think we can get the needed 10-11 extra chariots in Castleview on t83 so they can attack on t84.

That won't be enough force to do anything more than get rid of Ankara.  So that's almost 400 hammers to get rid of a heavily forfitied border city.  Gavagai will probably be unable to replant it if we successfully land the Great Lighthouse, since Castleview will reach level-3 culture before t90 in this scenario.

This also assumes Gavagai doesn't get some extra defenders in there.  He'll see our power going up in advance and may scramble extra defenders there; it would only take an extra archer or so to deflect 12-13 chariots.  I'm not sure we can have the force to deal with that.

We can also hit after t84, as he already has such a large defensive bonus that another +20% won't make that much difference, if it means we can get extra chariots on the scene.

We'll probably also have to do some extra whipping to get enough chariots, so that will slow down our growth curve.

Do you think this is all a worthwhile trade?  My instinct is no, but you're the MP veteran -- can you explain the payoff here?  In particular, I really have no idea how Gavagai might react to our power noticeably increasing -- I don't know how many extra defenders he might reinforce Ankara with once he sees that.

[Dark Savant]

There's an additional point I had meant to mention; Gavagai will know that Krill has spent a lot of resources on war with a mystery neighbor, and the Oracle.

He might want to attack Krill soon, before he can recover from those.  It might be about the time our own attack would hit, if he's quick about it.

[Dark Savant]

My estimate for number of axes we'd need is something like 8-9, which would be about enough to defeat an axe, a spear, two archers, and a chariot -- extra defenders because Gavagai would have an extra turn to whip or move them into place.  I'm assuming this attacking force would have a few extra spears and chariots tagging along.

8-9 axes is cheaper than 12-13 chariots, but it'd be awkward enough that we'd probably have to attack a few turns after t84, and that's enough time for Gavagai to decide to push an extra archer or two there for insurance.  If we weren't Aggressive, I'm sure the chariots would be better, but I'm not sure in this case.

[Dark Savant]

t73 has rolled, but let's finish t72 first:

Turn 72 (1120 BC) - Part 3

Sandro and Gem keep moving north.  Gem doesn't find much interesting this turn; she's now east of about where JR4's capital Borte should be.  Sandro finishes peacefully revealing tiles at Seven Mysteries:



If we build the Great Lighthouse on t81, I think that should beat this.  GermanJoey can chop the one forest and 3-pop whip for an extra 65 total hammers.  He finished a work boat on t67 and the lighthouse on t71, so most likely he'd have to build straight out otherwise, and even presuming a mined copper tile hiding in the fog and 15-20 or so hammers overflow from the 2-pop-whip, I don't see how he can come up with 135 hammers quite fast enough.  (It'd be a danger with the original t84 plan though.)

Also, we'd have made contact with JR4 even without Gem.  JR4 is the other major threat to build the Great Lighthouse (he has Sailing and a size-7 second city), so Gem will continue to move on -- we can still abort the Great Lighthouse and put its production into military if JR4 is clearly a bigger threat.

[ipecac]

Do you think this is all a worthwhile trade?  My instinct is no, but you're the MP veteran -- can you explain the payoff here? 

In the short term, no payoff, especially since Gavagai will be aggravated with the loss of that city, and the vicinity (if you capture it) to his capital. In the long term, you're going to have to stuff Castleview with lots of troops anyway to prevent Gavagai from sniping the city which should have the GLH, and is also a great staging area to push through the rest of your land.

In particular, I really have no idea how Gavagai might react to our power noticeably increasing -- I don't know how many extra defenders he might reinforce Ankara with once he sees that.

I did think it's a risk worth taking. Ankara is so far from his capital that he can't reinforce in a hurry - not unless he has troops on sentry and he'll have to have some at Krill's side anyway. The main downside, as I can see it, is that Krill wants you to do it.

How are Couevra's defenses? The thing about massing chariots is that they can be more readily redirected to hit another neighbour if one is too defended.

[ipecac]

Also, what could Krill have Oracled? Alphabet?

[Dark Savant]

Turn 72 (1120 BC) - Part 4

Our scouting units are now checking out Coeurva's cities.



Ignis Fatuus is still unguarded -- so we could have razed it if I had moved the chariot properly last turn .  Ah well, we didn't really want war with Coeurva that much, anyway.  He whipped it, so I presume a military unit will show up next turn.  That spear we can see isn't going to make it in time.

Coeurva's warrior that has been checking out our borders for centuries is pulling back.  Maybe he's getting the message that we can play the same game too.  

Coeurva is playing Cyrus.  Let's see what his Persian compatriot in Civ 3 has to say about this situation (this is from one of Sirian's game reports):





Our new work boat out of Harmondale checks out Whitehall:



So Coeurva got Writing before Animal Husbandry to expand borders?  That seems extravagant to me; they're still 67 hammers with the +35% bonus that Charismatic provides here.

[Dark Savant]

Do you think this is all a worthwhile trade?  My instinct is no, but you're the MP veteran -- can you explain the payoff here? 

In the short term, no payoff, especially since Gavagai will be aggravated with the loss of that city, and the vicinity (if you capture it) to his capital. In the long term, you're going to have to stuff Castleview with lots of troops anyway to prevent Gavagai from sniping the city which should have the GLH, and is also a great staging area to push through the rest of your land.

We might well have to raze Ankara.  That may well depend on the whim of the RNG.

And yeah, this does save us much future effort at Castleview.

In particular, I really have no idea how Gavagai might react to our power noticeably increasing -- I don't know how many extra defenders he might reinforce Ankara with once he sees that.

I did think it's a risk worth taking. Ankara is so far from his capital that he can't reinforce in a hurry - not unless he has troops on sentry and he'll have to have some at Krill's side anyway. The main downside, as I can see it, is that Krill wants you to do it.

Right.  Well, Gavagai is a major threat himself, since he has already claimed the good land between his start and Krill's.

I don't think "Krill wants us to do it" is a good enough reason not to do it.  Krill is going to be vulnerable himself for the near future, and we do need to think about having something ready to prevent Gavagai from eating Krill.

How are Couevra's defenses? The thing about massing chariots is that they can be more readily redirected to hit another neighbour if one is too defended.

Just posted, but on t72 it's completely nonexistent in both of his visible cities.  His visible spear will be in Ignis Fatuus on t74.

If he still has no defense this turn, I'm going to raze his border city, but I'm not expecting that to happen.  If it does happen, his spear can then kill the chariot, but that's a favorable trade.

Also, what could Krill have Oracled? Alphabet?

I tried to check for a known tech bonus, but we don't quite have the economy to reach 50 base commerce even after civilization-wide rearranging of tiles.  I can check in a few more turns.

The techs I can check for a KTB on are Horseback Riding, Metal Casting, and Iron Working.  He can also have Aesthetics, Alphabet, Mathematics, or Monarchy.

edit: Wait, I can check for Alphabet right away.  I'll do that once I start playing t73.