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OK. Possible combinations with what we know, that being:
(May 30th, 2013, 08:54)Mattimeo Wrote: Known roles:
novice : 1-shot cop :: minimum 1 C; odd
Serdoa : Serial Killer :: minimum 1 T; odd
Tasunk, Ichabod : vanilla town :: no known
if M occurs: 2, 4 or 5 instances only
(spoilered for length, and I might have missed some)
Once we have a third vanilla town show up dead, anyone who is a villager themselves can (finally) start to cross a few of those off for themselves - namely, those that would result in there being 10 power roles (so, a few of the ones with only one T). Anyone who currently is a power role can obviously cut anything a combination resulting in their role doesn't appear in. And scum can cut two of the groups, 'cause they know how many Ts have been rolled.
I hope you can see why I was rather dismissive of your claims that we have enough knowledge to narrow down the possible roles all that much.
-- Don’t forget.
Always, somewhere,
someone is fighting for you.
-- As long as you remember her,
you are not alone.
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(May 29th, 2013, 18:25)Azza Wrote: (May 29th, 2013, 12:13)slowcheetah Wrote: Lynching Zak would IMO probably clear Rowain.
This is a very, very, very suspicious quote.
Why would it clear Rowain by lynching Zak? No mention of how he might flip, or how it might work out if we lynched Rowain, just flat out saying "Lynch Zak, it'll clear Rowain".
I'm watching you slowcheetah.
Did you read my clarification? I worded it wrong the first time around. If Zak is lynched and turned out to be a villager Rowain would be pretty much cleared in my eyes.
Quote: (May 29th, 2013, 14:43)slowcheetah Wrote: Barring Azza, you three are the big deal surrounding the lynch. Which is all I've read beyons a quick skim. I need to apply some focus to Azza, but frankly the meat of the arguments are really long and I haven't had time yet.
18 minutes later...
(May 29th, 2013, 15:01)slowcheetah Wrote: I looked at the case for Azza, and I actually quite like it.
Why did you have to look specifically at Azza? I don't get it.
Slowcheetah
I was reading around the lynch, Bricks case on Azza was a relevant part of the discussion, which I hadn't read fully due to it being extremely long.
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Ok, so lets see who we have left:
BRickAstley
Gazglum
Jkaen
Rowain
Mattimeo
Slowcheetah
Azza
Zakalwe
Lewwyn
From this the current most obviously suspicious three are:
Zakalwe,
Azza,
Brick.
Guys who feel rather town:
Gazglum
JKaen
Slowcheetah
In the balance
Rowain
Lewwyn
Mattimeo
Current cases-
Zakalwe
The case for Zak is based primarily around his role in the Serdoa lynch. Before then he seemed to be widely considered a town player. His preemptive and nitpicky defense (coupled to some bad blood) actually appears to have hardened some against him; (Lewwyn, Jkaen). However,
Quote:Why don't you read the wiki page and get back to us, Jkaen.
Then we can see who has a hard time getting a grasp on things.
I'm wondering what those who have actually played with wolf Zak think of this. I don't see him posting like this as a wolf, it looks a lot like the emotional reaction of a villager, which could be a ploy. But the personal nature of the post is more likely to drive Jkaen towards a Zak lynch then anything else. As a 'frustrated villager' wolf play it's frankly a bit crap, not like the Zak I expect.
The Nightkill
Ichabod was vocal in saying that he would be voting for Zakalwe next time around. By removing Ichabod only a fencesitting Lewwyn was left. Zakalwe had already started marshalling his defenses, and ascalculated risks go, him being able to defend himself from the noose after an Ichabod kill probably has reasonable odds. On the otherhand, a framejob is certainly plausible. I don't think much can be gathered from the Nightkill at this point unfortunately.
Impact of a Zakalwe lynch on my 'In the balances'
As I've said before I think if Zakalwe is mislynched then Rowain looks to be innocent. I can see the scum carving up Serdoa and hoping at least one gets out alive (presumably the pack would be three so not ALL of the eggs were in one basket); and I can see Zakalwe jumping onto a villagers gut feel on a tight lynch day. I can't see Rowain as a wolf being the first to vote Serdoa; if noone jumped in you'd have an angry Serdoa on your tail for the rest of his lifespan. Noone wants that.
Other considerations
Gazglum mentioning that Zakalwe is playing like a power villager with a powerrole. Scumming himself up with the Serdoa lynch. Interesting theory. Zak denied the claims, but a powerrole possibly would until later in the game.
Azza
The late day 2 Azza case was outlined by Brick here:
300
It revolved around him skirting the thread and using only 'safe reads'. One element of his defense was that he saw Mattimeo as town, which wasn't a safe read.
I've already said that I disagree with this statement (50/50 on Mattimeo, means it's a pretty safe read for scum, just toss a coin and say you're basing it on gut). Although apparently a fair few disagree with my opinion here. I still think it's very scummy though.
Frankly Azza's latest contribution to the thread is just weird, claiming to not know setup after his initial "I'm the miller" joke.
More worryingly he also lied in the backlash:
Quote:I never said it was a clear joke. Judging from how people reacted it wasn't clear at all.
(May 25th, 2013, 01:43)Azza Wrote: (May 25th, 2013, 00:46)Mattimeo Wrote: (May 24th, 2013, 10:35)Azza Wrote: Because I've tried to policy lynch miller claims every time it's happened. Seems like a lot of drama could have been avoided if you'd just come out and said something to this effect when first questioned on the matter. And, given the lack of explanation when it immediately became apparent that some people weren't content to accept it as a joke, why explain it at this point in the proceedings? Worries that the case against you will gain too much momentum?
I didn't realise that people had missed that part of the joke.
And of course I'm worried that the case against me gain too much momentum, I don't want to be lynched. That holds true regardless of alignment.
Perhaps trying to pass himself as a wolf not paying attention. This incident is just bizzare.
At Lynchtime
Azza switched to Serdoa to save himself. Null tell, would be done by both villager and town. Before then he was applying a revenge vote to Brick, who was also in danger of dying. Given Bricks scumminess again a null tell in my opinion.
In the Balances
The fact that Azza was voting Brick late on day 2, probably means that Brick is innocent if Azza is guilty. Azza would have little idea that the Serdoa thing was coming (even in a pack of three it would be hard to orchestrate), and putting your own packmate in the lead at that point with no knowledge of whether you'd be able to save him would seem to me to be risky indeed.
Brick and conclusions are coming this evening at some point at least (it may be a few hours)
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Brick
Brick has had an interesting time in this game. Initially he was nearly lynched day one due to an emotional villager ploy or not. He was saved by Mr Arsonist not showing up.
Day two he was one of the most likely to be lynched due to him emulating Tasunke and frankly not being around. He came back at the latter end of day two with, in my opinion, a reasonable case on Azza and survived partially due to the Serdoa switcheroo.
Today: So far he has just said this
426
As Lewwyn said, no votes, positions or anything just a continuation of his argument with Azza. Hopefully, he'll appear this evening and voice some more opinions.
At Lynchtime
BRick stuck safely on Azza, his own case. He didn't react to the Mattimeo push, although I'm not sure whether he was reading or not at that point (Zak had taken over the vote counting).
Nightkill
Aside from being a generally strong player, I'm not sure what Brick would really gain from killing Ichabod. Ichabod had a vendetta against Zak, and had been a notable supporter of Bricks regarding his emotional day one argument.
In the balances
If Brick were guilty, Lewwyn certainly looks extremely innocent.
Conclusion
Wolfy to Town
Azza >(slightly and depending on Bricks contribution this evening)Brick>> Zak
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Vote count:
Azza: 2 (Slowcheetah, Rowain)
Zakalwe: 2 (Lewwyn, Jkaen)
Rowain: 1 (Azza)
Jkaen: 1 (Mattimeo)
Mattimeo: 1 (Gazglum)
Slowcheetah: 1 (Zakalwe)
Not voting: Brickastley
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Quick Responses
(May 30th, 2013, 00:44)Lewwyn Wrote: Brick what was that? Why are you so useless. You haven't posted any votes. You haven't posted any postions. Did I make a mistake are you still scum?
I had a limited amount of time yesterday, and thought it would be good at the time to spend it responding to Azza's rebuttal of my case. I didn't make a vote yet because upon the dialouge with Azza, I felt slightly more like he could be innocent, and knowing I would come back today, didn't want to put out a vote that was not properly thought out.
(May 30th, 2013, 07:12)Gazglum Wrote: Sorry I haven't had time to check in tonight, but I skimmed this discussion. I Don't think it's very helpful, and seems pretty impossible anyway with the data we have available - we don't know any roles but our own and Novice's, and we don't know how many scum there are.
We need to focus on scum-hunting, there's only 20 hours left in the day. It helps scum to wind down the clock comparing Ts and Vs.
 I'm going to read through all of this meta discussion angst because there's likely clues there as to scum based on how people approach it and each other, but at this point, the subject itself is unnecessary and takes up time and attention we haven't to spare.
(May 30th, 2013, 11:34)slowcheetah Wrote: BRick stuck safely on Azza, his own case. He didn't react to the Mattimeo push, although I'm not sure whether he was reading or not at that point (Zak had taken over the vote counting).
End of Day 2 right? I was meaning to stay up and follow the lynch, but fell asleep on top of my phone. In case people don't know, deadline is at 3AM for me, so unless I can pull a late night, I won't be around.
Quote:Aside from being a generally strong player
 Am I thought of as a strong player? That's certainly news to me, I had an exceptionally lucky first game and floundered ever since. Nice buttering up there. 
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(May 30th, 2013, 11:48)BRickAstley Wrote: Quick Responses
I had a limited amount of time yesterday, and thought it would be good at the time to spend it responding to Azza's rebuttal of my case. I didn't make a vote yet because upon the dialouge with Azza, I felt slightly more like he could be innocent, and knowing I would come back today, didn't want to put out a vote that was not properly thought out.
Why not just place one for pressure purposes?
(May 30th, 2013, 11:34)slowcheetah Wrote: BRick stuck safely on Azza, his own case. He didn't react to the Mattimeo push, although I'm not sure whether he was reading or not at that point (Zak had taken over the vote counting).
End of Day 2 right? I was meaning to stay up and follow the lynch, but fell asleep on top of my phone. In case people don't know, deadline is at 3AM for me, so unless I can pull a late night, I won't be around.
[/quote]
Yeah end of Day 2. Unfortunately for you though, that means you look less innocent :P.
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Because the day had already gone on long enough that I felt it had moved out of the starting of day pressure votes. And sorry that my time zone pings your scumdar. :P
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(May 30th, 2013, 09:32)Jkaen Wrote: Otherwise zak will have succeeded in sidetracking the day completely with stupid attempts at nit picking, and overshadowed any attempt to find scum, which obviously works to his advantage.
I haven't tried to sidetrack anything. You wanted to explore possible setups, which is fine, but it looked from your post like you had misunderstood how the setup was actually generated based on the 7 dice rolls. That's why I nitpicked on it, because it is kind of important to get it right, if you're going down that route. Turns out, you didn't actually misunderstand the mechanics - you were just imprecise in your wording. But you wrote a disparaging post with "what's so hard to grasp about that?" as your concluding point, and coupled with your asinine reason for voting me, that provoked me enough that I didn't turn the other cheek.
Now... can we all strive to vote rationally, instead of basing it on who annoys us or not? That goes for you too, Mattimeo.
If you know what I mean.
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(May 30th, 2013, 09:23)Azza Wrote: I knew we had a set up, I wasn't sure what it was or that there was a link to it in the OP. My mistake, should read things more carefully. (May 30th, 2013, 09:23)Azza Wrote: I never said it was a clear joke. Judging from how people reacted it wasn't clear at all. (May 30th, 2013, 09:23)Azza Wrote: I knew there was some sort of semi-known setup, and that we might have enough information to lock down what the setup was. I didn't educate myself on the setup though, no.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I buy this explanation. So I think I can name four people I don't want to lynch today: Azza, Jkaen, Mattimeo, and Rowain. That leaves Brick, Gazglum, Lewwyn, or Slowcheetah. (All in alphabetical order.)
(May 30th, 2013, 10:02)slowcheetah Wrote: Quote:Why did you have to look specifically at Azza? I don't get it.
I was reading around the lynch, Bricks case on Azza was a relevant part of the discussion, which I hadn't read fully due to it being extremely long.
Ok, that's fine. I haven't read your big posts very thoroughly yet but I'll do that soon. I'm not sure you picked such a great set of suspects to examine in detail, though.
In any case, I'm going to make another attempt to get traction on Gazglum. I have been thinking more about him and I don't like his play today. I'll elaborate in a separate post.
If you know what I mean.
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