WW16: The Outlaws and The Olives

[waterbat]

not defending the scumminess of those posts, but am a little confused how mafia Ichabod fits with what we saw at deadline. With mafia ichabod + mafia thestick not voting Bigger at the deadline, they had the ability to lynch bigger instead. why not? at least ichabod could have put a thestick vote in toward the end if they had given up on getting stick off of the gallows.

[novice]

not defending the scumminess of those posts, but am a little confused how mafia Ichabod fits with what we saw at deadline. With mafia ichabod + mafia thestick not voting Bigger at the deadline, they had the ability to lynch bigger instead. why not? at least ichabod could have put a thestick vote in toward the end if they had given up on getting stick off of the gallows.

I think Ichabod said he was busy this weekend or had something come up, so he was probably not able to vote. I've been thinking we might have some busy and some unexperienced scum, since they fared so poorly on day 1.

Another thing - at some point wolves must have reasoned that Thestick had attracted enough heat that saving him was just too risky. Say Ichabod had turned up and voted Bigger, and Bigger flipped villager. Thestick would be quite likely to be the next lynch, leaving wolves badly exposed.

[zakalwe]

not defending the scumminess of those posts, but am a little confused how mafia Ichabod fits with what we saw at deadline. With mafia ichabod + mafia thestick not voting Bigger at the deadline, they had the ability to lynch bigger instead. why not? at least ichabod could have put a thestick vote in toward the end if they had given up on getting stick off of the gallows.

Valid point, I also considered that earlier.

Basically four options:
- He's scum but really wasn't online at the lynch deadline.
- He's scum but Bigger is also scum.
- He's scum but they figured that saving thestick just wasn't worth it. In particular, a last minute vote by Ichabod would have been very damning for him, considering his earlier promise to vote for thestick.
- I'm wrong, and he's innocent.

In general, I also agree with what Novice said: the wolves probably could have saved thestick if they went all in to do so, but that might not be the best long term play in a game with so many players. Better to lose one wolf than to expose the whole pack.

[waterbat]

zak (and all) my screen scraper is up.

Unfortunately, still needs a manual configuration to extend the pages it covers. Right now, it will cover standard pages 1-49 (10 posts per page).

http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16

[novice]

zak (and all) my screen scraper is up.

Unfortunately, still needs a manual configuration to extend the pages it covers. Right now, it will cover standard pages 1-49 (10 posts per page).

http://www.cassidyweb.com/ww16

Great.

Why don't you do 40 posts per page? Because it requires a login?

[BRickAstley]

One hour left til end of night.

[novice]

Okay, summary of my impressions so far, partly to gather my thoughts and partly in case I die:

1) novice: the Secretary
Villager

2) Injera: the Electrician
Terrible votes/actions, but aggressive Injera villager style

3) Meiz: the Firefighter
Didn't agree with his priorities on who to pursue day 1. No scumtells though. Supported me when Uberfish attacked me.

4) zakalwe: the Farmer
Duh.

5) Qgqqqqq: the Student
No villager tells so far. Could be part of Team Anemic.

6) Rowain: the Town drunk
Seems like himself. But Rowain always reads scummy, he's so belligerent. Made wrong choices on day 1, but good posts on night 1.

7) Molach: the Street musician
Hm he's slipped under the radar again, don't remember what he did. I think he felt village. *checks scraper*. Voted thestick when he was clearly in the lead after the Mattimeo claim, but before the late Bigger swing. If that post was a bussing post it was pretty convincing.

8) Azza: the Mechanic
short and sweet, in his own words. I like it.

9) Waterbat: the Clergy
Dodgy and a monster wolf. Leaning villager though. His explanation for jumping off Thestick isn't bad.

10) Pindicator: the Lawyer
Villagery but he's a good actor. Votes doing him no favors.

11) Merovech: the Bartender
No read on his tone but his actions are pretty damning.

12) Serdoa: the Chef
Villager.

13) Bigger: the Milkman
Revisit when we know more, presumed villager for now.

14) Ichabod: the Pizza Delivery Boy
Zak makes a good case. Lynch target.

15) Arromir: the Newspaper Editor
Correct vote. Leankng villager, but a possible busser.

16) Sareln: the Psychiatrist
Lynchable as always.

17) tasunke: the Librarian
Probably not scum, although I disagree with most of his cases.

18) thestick: the Mailman
WolfWolfWolfMafia

19) Lewwyn: the Garbage collector
Revisit on day 4.

20) uberfish: the Barrel-maker
Off to a bad start, I think if he's villager we'll see that soonish though.

21) Catwalk: the Bureaucrat
I've never seen a wolf catwalk but I don't think this is it.

22) Gaspar: the Carpenter
Too clever to get caught yet if wolf. Although would a wolf Gaspar have kicked up more dust?

23) Jkaen: the Olive Picker
Village read on his tone. Genuinely misunderstanding Meiz's case on him, seems like typical villager JKaen.

24) Mattimeo: the Wine connoisseur
Likely villager based on the vote swing on him.

25) Selrahc: the Knife smith
A slow start, but what I've seen so far is ok.

26) Twinkletoes89: the Barber
Bad votes but feels like himself. Have we seen him play wolf?


Ok, maybe this isn't so useful, since we all know how to speak from the gut, but there you have it. I have posted some reasoning-based posts as well on night 1 so you can refer back to those as well.

[novice]

Trying to pick six wolves from that list is an interesting exercise. I'll pick five, since a total of six wolves is an absolute minimum I think with 26 players. Selrahc, what's the best balance with 26 players?

5) Qgqqqqq: the Student
No villager tells so far. Could be part of Team Anemic.

10) Pindicator: the Lawyer
Villagery but he's a good actor. Votes doing him no favors.

11) Merovech: the Bartender
No read on his tone but his actions are pretty damning.

14) Ichabod: the Pizza Delivery Boy
Zak makes a good case. Lynch target.

16) Sareln: the Psychiatrist
Lynchable as always.

Runner-ups:
20) uberfish: the Barrel-maker
Off to a bad start, I think if he's villager we'll see that soonish though.

22) Gaspar: the Carpenter
Too clever to get caught yet if wolf. Although would a wolf Gaspar have kicked up more dust?

6) Rowain: the Town drunk
Seems like himself. But Rowain always reads scummy, he's so belligerent.

26) Twinkletoes89: the Barber
Bad votes but feels like himself. Have we seen him play wolf?

[Ichabod]

Well, I have a moment of break down from work, so let's use it to start the discussion. Even if day 2 is almost beggining, no reason to wait, in my opinion. I'll defend myself in this post, which seem to be a more pressing matter. later I'll try to give some insights regarding whom I think is suspicious.

I think Ichabod said he was busy this weekend or had something come up, so he was probably not able to vote. I've been thinking we might have some busy and some unexperienced scum, since they fared so poorly on day 1.

Another thing - at some point wolves must have reasoned that Thestick had attracted enough heat that saving him was just too risky. Say Ichabod had turned up and voted Bigger, and Bigger flipped villager. Thestick would be quite likely to be the next lynch, leaving wolves badly exposed.

Yes, I was busy this weekend, due to unexpected happenings (which led me to not even vote). I stopped reading the thread about the time I made my last post. I came back after the lynch was over already.

I disagree with the second part of this post, though. While a strongly suspected player is unlikely to get the heat out of himself later in the game, day 1 suspicions can come and disappear easily. So, I wouldn't expect wolves to let go this easily. Even if the suspicion didn't disappear entirely, they can get time, like on WW7 with scooter and WW3 (?) with Zak and Scooter. Now everyone is sure of thestick lynch, but if other player was mislynched instead, I bet everyone wouldn't be that sure. It's risky to play this game based on hindsight.

But my thoughts about best wolf play are kind of pointless, because the wolves indeed let thestick go, without of much of a fight, apparently. Regarding this, I agree with Zak, the place to look for people trying to divert the bandwagon on the stick is probably in the first part of the day, not near the deadline. The timing of my posts was really unfortunate, making me look suspicious because of this (and I'm a villager), but the argument stands. This leads me to point out a finger to Lewwyn, which I find to be a suspicious player right now. But I'll talk about this later (after trying to reread things a bit, I confess I mostly skimmed across the 30 pages I had to read this morning).

Another option is a planned busing of thestick. It's more likely to happen in a big game than a small one, for obvious reasons.

(Parenthesis: regarding the "big game topic" - there were some players refering to the setup and every single one, if I remember correctly, talked about a 6 wolf pack. That's interesting, because I wouldn't be so sure about that number).

Alright, I guess it's time to spill the beans.

My top suspect is Ichabod. This is based on a very strong gut feeling, which I'll try my best to explain now. Remember that I've been looking for people who tried to deflect thestick's lynch at an early stage. Ichabod made a post which looks like an archetypical wolf Ichabod post, right at the time when thestick really needed relief. Thestick had recently surged to a 5 vote lead, with no more than 2 votes on anyone else. (Although Waterbat moved his vote off thestick shortly after that happened, so it was 4-2 at the point Ichabod posted.)

Since this post is so central to my case, I took the time to reassemble it with nested quotes, even if it's a pain:



To me, this post looks like Ichabod trying to come up with a compelling case, building on some established suspicions but adding his own "twist" so it looks insightful. Only he fails pretty hard, at least in my view. The argument against Gaspar is nonsensical. I was actually thinking at the time that this screamed wolf Ichabod trying to move our attention away from thestick, but I mostly held my tongue because I didn't want to weaken my case by showing too much confirmation bias.

I did pick apart Ichabod's case on Gaspar, though, and he quickly backpedaled furiously:




By the end there, his argument has warped into something completely unrecognizable.

His tone throughout this exchange is just incredibly subservient. I think he realized how exposed thestick was and really felt on thin ice. Ichabod never rejoined the discussion after this, and as expected, his promised vote on thestick never materialized. It's as if he was afraid to rear his ahead again, for fear of getting smacked back down.

Also notice how he managed to sneak in a comment about me inflating the interpretation of a post. Thestick's post, in particular, although that went unsaid. Classic wolf Ichabod, trying to sneak in backhanded compliments or jabs while seemingly making some unrelated point.

One thing I can point out quickly against your argument, Zak: Why choose Gaspar to try and get a bandwagon/mislynch to save thestick going? If I was a wolf, I could pick an easier target (Gaspar is hard to lynch), which would lead to, most likely, a better escape goat to save thestick.

I think the main problem with my posts regarding Gaspar is that I tried to hard to express a gut feel, and a pretty vague one at that. And, from what I can see from Novice and Zakalwe now and from the lack of comments after my post, I really failed at that. My point still stands (even if I couldn't made myself clear), though, and I still suspect Gaspar, even more so after I kept reading the thread.

Any comment about my absence is really though for me to answer. You imply I did it due to an agenda (because I got beat after trying to save thestick). I say I was away. I don't know what else to add to this point, really.

What was the comment about you? That you are a cat herder? I was making a about Gaspar style of play and how I think he has a difficulty to make people follow his suspicions (which I attribute to him not trying to, since I find he prefers to find the wolves rather than convincing people he's right). I find that your style of play is the one most contrarian to that of Gaspar. Or to put in other words, if you are not a cat herder, who is?

[Rowain]

I think I can agree with your list but I would have both Meiz and Jkaen at the runner up list.