WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Jkaen]

Ok, well since we are well intot he second half of the day. Jowy - want to make a vote please?

Zak, I dont understand why your vote is on Jowy atm, can you clarify please?

[Gazglum]

TBH I don't like any of our three options today.. I have a village lean on both MJW and Matt, and I obviously don't want to die myself. Jkaen and Azza are two others I have a village lean on. Would be willing to join the bandwagon on anyone else. Btw I will also make a self-defense vote if necessary, just letting you know now.

Jowy, why did you have town leans on MJW and Mattimeo, and do you still have a town lean on Mattimeo?

Good job guys Never been happier to be wrong. I'm glad I made the hard gameplay choice rather than wussy out and leave it up to the dice.
MJW, you are dead, but I'll explain how the pieces fill the puzzle now. It's from my point of view btw.
Gives strong town lean to: Zak, Novice, Q
Matt and Jkaen already had a town lean from me.
This leaves Azza, Azarius and Gazglum, which two are wolves.

This is if there was no sacrifices made by the wolves to gain credit.
It's a possibility considering how MJW didn't exactly have much longevity, but I don't really believes a sacrifice was made.

If Azarius is now cleared, do you think Azza and I are the scum pair, or do you now think bussing might have happened? If so, do you have a lean towards who it might have been?

Also, if you believe that MJW didn't have longevity, as do I, why wouldn't scum bus him?

[Gazglum]

Actually, comparing them, this feels contradictory.

This is if there was no sacrifices made by the wolves to gain credit.
It's a possibility considering how MJW didn't exactly have much longevity, but I don't really believes a sacrifice was made.

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

[Gazglum]

OK, lots to respond to from Q.

Yesterday was, I admit, a Clusterglum. Based on the spread of votes on Mattimeo, among which I knew I was innocent and felt that Azza was too, I was strongly suspicious of Azarius. When he started the day voting me for no apparent reason, after facing some scrutiny from Novice overnight, I became convinced that he was scum. His lack of posting, even though I knew he was available, made me feel more sure. So I based all my manic energy on that theory.

Jkaen was a suspect because I don't have a super towny read on him, as I do with you and Novice, and because I thought he possibly fit with an MJW/Azarius pair. I went through the posts and took notes, but admitted when I put them up that it wasn't a strong case. The biggest tell for me - that he went silent over the lynch, Jkaen then pointed out is in character for him during weekends, so I withdraw that accusation.

.....

All my suspect reads yesterday were built on an assumption that Azarius was scum, and so are now fairly worthless. That includes clearing Mattimeo, who I thought couldn't be getting pushed by both his scum buddies. I'm now less sure of that, if Azarius is town.

If it really is Jowy and Mattimeo, it would make some sense of the end of Day 2. One of them was going down anyway. Jowy picked MJW and then made sure we all knew how he'd made the tough call for the good of the village.

But even if you are town, Mattimeo, I disagree with this:

I'll go back to Jowy, for now, for being generally scummy yesterday and bringing MJW up to 5 versus Mattimeo's 3 only when it seemed locked in at 4v3. Then talking up how he made 'the hard choice' and saying how he doubted a sacrifice was made on MJW.

...because a 4-4 coin flip isn't worth risking?
I mean, of all the people on the MJW wagon who could be scum, you pick one who not only cast effectively the deciding vote (gaurantee MJW death rather than coin flip between us), but has numerous documentation supporting a choice to keep me alive over MJW?

If Jowy is scum as well, a 4-4 flip is very much a risk, just think about what would have happened if MJW had died anyway. Jowy was already a leading candidate for hanging on Day 2, although he had escaped the immediate threat by the end. If he voted you, and the tie-break ended with MJW dying anyway, then Jowy is seen to have come on and made a 50/50 play for MJW's life - the only thing that would have saved him at that point. Jowy would be right up the top of the suspect list again, for me, and I think for several others -so the scum team would be faced with a very real possibility of losing two wolves in two successive days.

I guess to put it another way, potential scum Jowy was faced with a certain loss of MJW and cover for himself, or a 50% chance of losing MJW and himself next round.

[Gazglum]

Sorry Q, I kind of lost my train of thought with you there.

TIMINGS

The timing of my Mattimeo vote. I woke up, glanced at the leading page and took in the tally, voted Mattimeo immediately as my preferred over MJW. That was ten minutes before lynch,

Then I went back and read what I had missed, was happy to leave my vote on Mattimeo, misread the tally, asked people to join me there. Lynch was at 7:00 am my time.

We were told the actual result about twenty minutes later, which is the half hour of uncertainty I referred to. At that point, I thought Mattimeo was probably feeling mildly scummier than Jowy, based on their respective night posts.

Why were you expecting a Jailor with a Baner already revealed?

I didn't believe scum would choose to no-kill, so they were blocked. I knew our doctor was dead, so a jailer is the most common other role I know of that could do that. Other options seemed to be a commuter or a roleblocker, both of which I have seen less in our games.

What is scummy about taking it to a 5vs3?

Because at that point, it looks clear that the 4v3 is set. MJW is not going to get off, the best Jowy can do is give him a 50% chance. That's when scum might want to pile on for town cred.

This is what I find suspicious about your hunting - you basically have only scumhunted based off Azarius, and I don't think you're case on him was strong.

It felt good to me, for reasons I've outlined above. I was wrong.

I don't think Azza and Mattimeo can be scum-buddies, so if Azarius and me are both innocent that means that at least one scum vote had to be on MJW. You also said yourself that you didn't see me and Azza as buddies, and I think a replay of Glum/Mattimeo looks unlikely to all, so that still gives us a scum vote on MJW.

Azza voted Mattimeo Day 1 when he had a real chance of being lynched. He attacked him throughout, and I believe Mattimeo attacked him back. Azza' voting makes it seem more real than scum-feigned squabble. I also think Azza has felt townish.

[zakalwe]

Zak, I dont understand why your vote is on Jowy atm, can you clarify please?

Mostly because it makes for a logical alternative to Gazglum, who pushed Jowy on day 2 as well. At the end of day 2, Jowy made the right call and may have tried to exaggerate its importance, and Gazglum made the wrong call and "owned" it. I can see both as plausible scum plays. What you don't want to do in a situation like that (or at least tend not to do as scum) is to say that "yeah I can see how A is scummy but I'm gonna have to go with B because he's even scummier".

Actually, comparing them, this feels contradictory.

I've been looking for similar contradictions, and yes, that might be one. I'd like to hear Jowy's retort.

[novice]

Mattimeo, can we get your evaluation of the remaining players?

[Qgqqqqq]

He didn't cast the deciding vote (at the time it was 4:3) unless you assume a Jowy-Gaz scumpair (which I don't). I think he's the least decisive vote there personally. And so do others (myself for instance but also Jkaen at least, and probably novice/zak too...which makes everyone). He was probably the least confident for you over MJW, I think he only voiced it when he voted in the last 15 minutes.

How is a choice between 5-3 (guaranteed kill with 10 people alive and one of those not voting being the 3) and 4-4 (when you're not necessarily expecting either remaining vote to be cast) not a deciding vote? It's deciding between a garunteed lynch and a coin flip, at the very least.

Because, as Gazglum points out, he couldn't afford a coinflip because of how bad that would've looked if he nearly saved a scum. He also didn't need to jump on because he had a history of staying off the lynch altogether

It happens when you mess up quote tags sometimes. Putting an open instead of a close, so you end up with two un-closed tags, for instance.

Thanks.

What analysis do you need to do?
If someone roleblocked and there was a no-kill, that's a pretty obvious person to vote for. Interaction analysis can come later.

Well, we have someone who was roleblocked (you do know that's half the function of a Gaoler, right?). Do we have an obvious person to vote for from that? Or would you prefer to have, say, a day or so to discuss the implications?

I didn;t know we were talking about a Jailer at the time, and in fact thought it quite unlikely given the baner. I was thinking role-blocker/commuter, I didn't even consider another role like that.

Q, what's your current assessment of what went down yesterday? Was MJW bussed, did they try to save him, or something in between?

Not really sure tbh. I think that it's likely at least one wolf got on the wagon (possibly Jkaen trapped from earlier or someone like you/Jowy later on) but I think there's probably someone off it as well - either Matt or Gazglum. I suppose I don't think there was a concerted effort either way.
Atm I suppose I'm thinking something like Jowy/Gazglum>>Matt/Azza>zak/Jkaen for scum.

Actually, comparing them, this feels contradictory.

This is if there was no sacrifices made by the wolves to gain credit.
It's a possibility considering how MJW didn't exactly have much longevity, but I don't really believes a sacrifice was made.

Jowy, why do you think MJW didn't have much longevity? And regardless of why you think so, Gazglum looks very scummy for parroting that idea.

His style. He'll always be high on the lynch candidate list because of that. And when playing wolf he can't get cleared as village. This game he had been pushed on both days. If I was scum and we chose to sacrifice someone for the greater good, it'd be MJW.

Agreed, this does seem weird.

OK, lots to respond to from Q.

Yesterday was, I admit, a Clusterglum. Based on the spread of votes on Mattimeo, among which I knew I was innocent and felt that Azza was too, I was strongly suspicious of Azarius. When he started the day voting me for no apparent reason, after facing some scrutiny from Novice overnight, I became convinced that he was scum. His lack of posting, even though I knew he was available, made me feel more sure. So I based all my manic energy on that theory.

Jkaen was a suspect because I don't have a super towny read on him, as I do with you and Novice, and because I thought he possibly fit with an MJW/Azarius pair. I went through the posts and took notes, but admitted when I put them up that it wasn't a strong case. The biggest tell for me - that he went silent over the lynch, Jkaen then pointed out is in character for him during weekends, so I withdraw that accusation.

Okay, this is the impression I got. It still feels off that you went after them based on that rather then rereading the thread though...

.....

All my suspect reads yesterday were built on an assumption that Azarius was scum, and so are now fairly worthless. That includes clearing Mattimeo, who I thought couldn't be getting pushed by both his scum buddies. I'm now less sure of that, if Azarius is town.

If it really is Jowy and Mattimeo, it would make some sense of the end of Day 2. One of them was going down anyway. Jowy picked MJW and then made sure we all knew how he'd made the tough call for the good of the village.

Why do you think he would've chosen MJW rather then matt to die. Edit: ignore this, he obviously couldn't pick or choose as he posted before your vote.

But even if you are town, Mattimeo, I disagree with this:

I'll go back to Jowy, for now, for being generally scummy yesterday and bringing MJW up to 5 versus Mattimeo's 3 only when it seemed locked in at 4v3. Then talking up how he made 'the hard choice' and saying how he doubted a sacrifice was made on MJW.

...because a 4-4 coin flip isn't worth risking?
I mean, of all the people on the MJW wagon who could be scum, you pick one who not only cast effectively the deciding vote (gaurantee MJW death rather than coin flip between us), but has numerous documentation supporting a choice to keep me alive over MJW?

If Jowy is scum as well, a 4-4 flip is very much a risk, just think about what would have happened if MJW had died anyway. Jowy was already a leading candidate for hanging on Day 2, although he had escaped the immediate threat by the end. If he voted you, and the tie-break ended with MJW dying anyway, then Jowy is seen to have come on and made a 50/50 play for MJW's life - the only thing that would have saved him at that point. Jowy would be right up the top of the suspect list again, for me, and I think for several others -so the scum team would be faced with a very real possibility of losing two wolves in two successive days.

I guess to put it another way, potential scum Jowy was faced with a certain loss of MJW and cover for himself, or a 50% chance of losing MJW and himself next round.

As posted earlier, I agree strongly with the above.

Sorry Q, I kind of lost my train of thought with you there.

TIMINGS

The timing of my Mattimeo vote. I woke up, glanced at the leading page and took in the tally, voted Mattimeo immediately as my preferred over MJW. That was ten minutes before lynch,

Then I went back and read what I had missed, was happy to leave my vote on Mattimeo, misread the tally, asked people to join me there. Lynch was at 7:00 am my time.

We were told the actual result about twenty minutes later, which is the half hour of uncertainty I referred to. At that point, I thought Mattimeo was probably feeling mildly scummier than Jowy, based on their respective night posts.

Thanks for the explanation Joaock. I didn't realise it was 7 for you, thought Melbourne was 8.
I'm not totally sure this fits with the posts, but it may be just unclear.

What is scummy about taking it to a 5vs3?

Because at that point, it looks clear that the 4v3 is set. MJW is not going to get off, the best Jowy can do is give him a 50% chance. That's when scum might want to pile on for town cred.

Do you view this as scummier then if Jowy had stayed off the wagon/not posted/voted matt?

This is what I find suspicious about your hunting - you basically have only scumhunted based off Azarius, and I don't think you're case on him was strong.

It felt good to me, for reasons I've outlined above. I was wrong.

Independent of whether it was a good case or not (and we both agree it wasn't conclusively damning), why did you choose to base the remainder of your scumhunting off it rather then looking at other options and then considering how they fit with this case?

I don't think Azza and Mattimeo can be scum-buddies, so if Azarius and me are both innocent that means that at least one scum vote had to be on MJW. You also said yourself that you didn't see me and Azza as buddies, and I think a replay of Glum/Mattimeo looks unlikely to all, so that still gives us a scum vote on MJW.

Azza voted Mattimeo Day 1 when he had a real chance of being lynched. He attacked him throughout, and I believe Mattimeo attacked him back. Azza' voting makes it seem more real than scum-feigned squabble. I also think Azza has felt townish.

Thanks.

[Qgqqqqq]

I'm really divided on who to lynch atm, both Gazglum and Jowy have felt pretty scummy. I guess I'll go with [color=red]Jowy[/quote] for the free pressure and uncertainty regarding MJW. I want to have a look through Gazglums posts, I don't think he's been consistent either.

[Qgqqqqq]

That should've been Jowy.

Gazglum, you said that Jowys posts overnight pushed him over matt for you, and you only realised this after reading after the lynch. These are Jowys posts after your last post that night and before you woke up (ok, I left out votecounts).

Voting for you is a day action. I'm not sure how you're getting he's going to night kill you out of that.

Who said anything about a night kill?
Perhaps I worded that wrong though, I meant the lynch that happens at the end of Day 2.
What do you think of the actual slip?

Your posting style both this game and the masquerade game has been highly abrasive. I wouldn't go so far as to say you're trying to get lynched, but I do actually agree with Q's general idea.

Okay you missed it. My point was that the quote reads like he knows I'm a villager, despite the fact that the rest of his posts say I'm scum. If I'm a wolf who tries to get lynched, why would I arrogantly laugh at the villagers when I'm lynched?

I've got mixed feelings on Matt. He's got an attitude problem, he hasn't pursued any cases and has played a reactionary game. I wasn't a fan of the vote on MJW, due to the reason being that MJW is anti-town, though Matt did mention that he had nothing solid to go with and only voted because no-lynch was not an option. At least the MJW vote is significantly more townish than if he had voted for CH, who turned out villager and was the one he was racing against. We've quite firmly seen that the majority thinks that players should answer questions that they are asked of, and Matt does this. On one hand he is doing what the players want and not being evasive, but on the other hand spending all his online time on questions casts a bad light on him because he's not scum hunting. As for his answers, I like them. There are some Day 1 stuff that I disagree with, but I didn't find any of his answers scummy. I think all in all, he's got a slight village lean in my eyes.

Whoops, forgot to say that I believe his lack of time and his attitude to be real and not faked.

TBH I don't like any of our three options today.. I have a village lean on both MJW and Matt, and I obviously don't want to die myself. Jkaen and Azza are two others I have a village lean on. Would be willing to join the bandwagon on anyone else. Btw I will also make a self-defense vote if necessary, just letting you know now.

Yeah I think you missed it when you wrote it and you missed it again. The slip I was talking about was that in that sentence, you were only taking in consideration that I am a villager. A wolf would not laugh arrogantly at the villagers after being caught by them and lynched. There was no "regardless of your alignment" or "but if you are village" or "if you flip villager" like you are now using constantly in every sentence.

Q, just cause I said that I will not hold a grudge if you miss-lynch me, doesn't mean that I will be laughing at you if it happens, or that I've given up. I honestly believe that by not being baited to long drawn out repetitive pissing contents, the village will get more scum hunting done and will have a better chance to win the game. It was the big lesson everyone should have taken from the last game. And while I understand how it might look scummy if I ignore some questions, I also believe that I would look even more scummy if I were to ferociously defend myself like in the last game.

I'll go with MJW, though a dice roll might be fair as well. Thing is, if MJW turns out to be a wolf, it would fill a lot of pieces in the puzzle.

What were the posts that made him feel less scummy then matt?
You also said somewhere that people commenting on his posts favorably had also influenced that. I'm not seeing that during the period you were asleep, could you point it out?