Okay, back at this...
GEOPOLITICS:
CONTENDERS:
These are the four who can win...Plako will probably take half of the Netherlands in the end, but it's doubtful he'll be healthy enough to make things happen. Although hell, he might in the end be better off than the Zulus.
Gawdzak- Classical Island Empire
I mean these epitaphs very deliberately; Gawdzak here is running a
classic Island Empire game; high tech rate, decent crop, awful manufacturing base. There is no better way to make yourself look bad than to run this kind of island game, because you seem to be winning...until suddenly, you're not, as mature towns and vast workshop spreads begin to tell in your land-bound rivals' empires. Gawdzak is a smart guy, seems very up on his theory...so he probably knew he was kind of screwed from the get-go. Look above, see that vast wedge? Lot of water tiles that are instead plains workshops in the others' territories.
Gawdzak won't win this game, because motivation. He rocketed to about two dozen cities out the gate...and then just stagnated. He sought a replacement and although he hasn't been beating that drum hard I know he's got to be burned out. So his inclusion on this list might be problematic, to be honest.
Still, the PB22 Zulu have some nice things going for them right now; he's got the tech and unit mix to conquer a lot if he can spare the effort; Furungy is a hot commodity but he could help himself to some of the feast if he wanted, or else kick off a dogpile on Donovan Zoi (because Gavagai
will join a good dogpile)...with cavalry, which is how I assume he trashed the DZ island so fast, he could even strike out eastward and eat chunks of me and/or Plako.
But if I were a bettin' man, I'd bet that's just more effort than the turnplayer wants to spend right now.
GermanJojo- Sprawling Conquistador
Jo here has managed to fire-wire himself in all directions, but if you can do so profitably...why not? Expansive cothons have been amazing for his economic development I'm sure, but he's also got a pretty nice, if strung out, cottage core. Gavagai wisely gave Jo the me/Dtay border setup while focusing on Mackoti and HAK, so there is a bit of defensive depth looking north. The bites of REMAI and Furungy that Jo ate seem to be digesting very nicely.
Jo's path forward is nicely straight and obvious; kill REMAI for their crappy tundra peninsula, split Furungy further, then join in the fun against 2mn. Then...it's going to be interesting. Conservatively, we have another ~120 turns left in the game, so he might be able to stick around in the space race with just that land. He'll be exposed on all fronts, though, so his best bet is an Arty beeline to get a real navy first. Carthage is transport food.
Gavagai- Equatorial Hegemon
So I guess I was lying about four contenders, right? Well, Gawdzak and GermanJojo both
can win, for all that I have Gav or Dtay as those who
will win (or more likely split the draw when burnout hits). Gavagai is resilient and tough, so I don't think England is going to do anything but wax as time marches onward.
Gav played a solid game thus far, wisely splitting solid borders with Jo and Mack (~our Dtay and Plako) while pushing hard against HAK (???- no Commodore equivalent found
). He's got the lion's share of the unbelievably huge New Frontier that HAK and REMAI criminally neglected early on...it's too late for cottages, so that's a ton of workshops and the hammer economy shining path for the win.
Gavagai's got enough land to win right now. He might very well eat Donovan Zoi at tanks and/or bombers, in which case he'll have enough land to win effortlessly. The future will show if that's maximally efficient or not, but sans dogpile Gavagai definitely has the whip hand.
Dtay- Overlord, Western Hemisphere
Aaaand then we have Dtay. Wow. He's got the land to launch a spaceship right now, just like Gavagai, and he got it largely peacefully (minor skirmishes with Portugal aside). His riflemen and free-flanking knights are tearing Furungy a new one I'm sure, and once cannon and cavalry join the mix there isn't much that 2metraninja will be able to do. Dtay's not built wonders, or won stunning blitzes, or anything of the sort yet, but who needs to when steady expansion and economic development have you top score anyway?
Dtay is in a lovely position where he can set a steady-state spaceship launch date, then casually fiddle with the cost-benefit ratios of his actions to bring that schedule inward fast than Gavagai can. His biggest rivals are far away over thousands of miles of defensive depth, and his Mexico and Canada are merely waiting to die by his hand; his only consideration is how much our demise will profit Plako and Gav/Jo respectively. Steady hand, avoid overreach, outpace Gavagai; if Dtay manages the first two I think he can manage the third. Should definitely be fun to watch!