WW 36 - Horrors in Kingsport [Game Thread]

[Rowain]

@Rowain: So Jabbz fits your scum busser criteria. Does he ring any other bells?

I had Jabbz in my suspicious list before zaks body was found. He jumped on Matt when it looked like an uncontested lynch. The feeling I got from his posts during the last hour or so is "scum who fears to jump on a villager when it is not clear that he will hang (Jabbz switching would only make it 7:7 with zak still able to vote Matt).

It is in a way similar to why I distrust BRick who jumped on zak and left again when it became clear that Matt would swing.

[Fenn]

Best of luck to you and your wife Brick.

I began to wonder why scum killed zak. His death made it clear beyond doubt that we had a scum vs town run yesterday.
So I thought maybe there were more scum on the Matt-waggon who now try to make us look only on the zak-voters (which as far as I see has happened so far).

FWIW I agree completely with this analysis. Zak flipping town incriminates all the people who voted for him, giving a clear reason to go after their lynch that scum could hide behind. I think this is why zakalwe was killed over any other player. In this case I have to give a little town lean to Brick and a bit more to Qgqqqqq (whose recent posts make me feel better about him also) as along with me they are potential mislynch targets that scum would shoot for. Some town points to Rowain too for making this case first as well.

As it turns out, I have contradicted myself a bit, Q's voting/posting history becomes iffy, and Brick isn't available. Thus Q and I become the main wagons for today. Now I think Jabbz is looking bad; Lewwyn has already covered his iffy Day 1. Lately he argued for the great context that zak's death gives us and then disappeared without saying what that context was; I think hoping the conversation would naturally swing to the zak voters.

Also suspicious of dtay for explicitly pushing for lynching a zak-voter. Of course building cases against and lynching us is easy, that's probably why zak died last night in the first place. It's in the scum's best interest if we focus on the easy targets and don't go any deeper than that.

[Fenn]

Though on reflection it doesn't reflect well on Brick that he jumped back on Mattimeo right away. Possible action of scum or town though, so a null tell to me.

[dtay]

Best of luck to you and your wife Brick.

Also suspicious of dtay for explicitly pushing for lynching a zak-voter. Of course building cases against and lynching us is easy, that's probably why zak died last night in the first place. It's in the scum's best interest if we focus on the easy targets and don't go any deeper than that.

No, I didn't - if you read what I ACTUALLY wrote as opposed to what you're imputing, I pushed for starting the day off pressuring/investigating Zak switchers. Similar to my argument with.... someone, was it Qqqqq?, over meta votes/pressures early d1, I think there are clear points of pressure on the zak voters which gets everyone talking about their reads and what they want to do, which generates more reads, etc. And is way more helpful when this is all based on something concrete rather than something insubstantial.

Am now actually leaving though

[Rowain]

This seems obvious but not a reason to not start wityh the zak switchers. Given the majority of people were on Matt and I doubt the scum had everyone switch at once there are almost certainly deep cover Matt voters. But rooting them out is harder at the moment because well, what do you challenge them on? "Why did you vote for Matt?" "He was lurking and scummy, and then ended up scum", "oh".

Versus there are clearer lines of investigation and inconsistencies to look for with the zak switchers.

The danger if we concentrate only on the zak - voters is that we use up too many mislynches while providing scum easy votes = not learning a lot about those missing. Just look at the votecount novice posted a while ago It was 5 on Qg and 3 on fenn. If we are lucky they are both scum if not we won't learn much.

[dtay]

The danger if we concentrate only on the zak - voters is that we use up too many mislynches while providing scum easy votes = not learning a lot about those missing. Just look at the votecount novice posted a while ago It was 5 on Qg and 3 on fenn. If we are lucky they are both scum if not we won't learn much.

Fair, i agree with this

[Gaspar]

Re: leaving myself an "out" on Mattimeo - I'm pretty well known as willing to vote-jump, so I wouldn't feel a need to justify at deadline. I did feel sunrise was the scummier of sunrise and Mattimeo so if there was a hedge, that was why.

Re: zak voters vs Matt voters - I think there are surely scum on both. And gun to my head if there are an even number of scum, I'd suspect more on zakalwe than Mattimeo. That said, timing of the moves/votes probably tells us more than just where they landed. The thing is - Mattimeo is the kind of scum you bus. We've seen him before and he's really not comfortable with it. But I don't think you necessarily bus on D1 unless you must. When I've been scum I always expect D1 to be a free lynch. So anyone who voted for him very reluctantly without a good reason would be suspicious to me.

Ultimately, I don't really like voting on voting record on D2. Get us to a point where we've got 4-5 players out of the game and its easier to make those conclusions. I think the biggest thing you can see on D2 is changes in behavior now that we have some info/history. That's why I was skeptical on dtay. That's why I am skeptical on Lewwyn (along with the other reasons already stated) though I confess that Lewwyn makes a valid point in his rebuttal.

Gonna give today a re-read since I have some time and probably move my vote.

[Gaspar]

I'm rereading the zak wagon starter from yesterday and it feels so off... The only one whose post isn't scummy is Matt, I'm convinced town Matt would have wrote the same post. Really, after a day of attacking Zak Saul posts this :

How about instead of just agreeing with me that zak is scummy we vote for him as well?

and in the next 5mn 4 different people change their vote. 4 people, from 20:47 to 20:49 put their vote on Zak, taking him from super safe with 1 vote to a contender for the day lynch. That's way beyond unlikely. Especially from Q Fenn and Brick, 3 people who hadn't made a great impression on the first day (at least to the town in general). If I had to guess, out of the 5 Zak voters there were 1 or 2 scum (plus Matt), if there were 3 scum voting for Matt they had the power to save him (and it would mean they all went on him early on which is strange, I'd expect one or two to be creating deep cover not all of them).

My guess is that following that Saul post (not that I have an opinion on Saul right now, not anymore anyway) one or two scum decided to take a chance and jump in on Zak, but bad luck/timing made other people jump in at the same time and the wagon looked unnatural. The only one I kind of like is Lewwyn, he arrived super late and decided on almost no info that Zak was scummier than Matt, even going as far as stating that he had "town lean on Matt". That could be some weird WIFOM but it looks genuine. Out of the four other members of the original Zak wagon, there's a convenient wagon on Qgqqqqq that I'm happy to join.

Does this sound a bit like giving us the summary version of what was going on in the scum thread to anyone else?

[Gaspar]

What are you even...

If I'm scum, then killing Zak to get him out of my hair is not a good tactic. Zak was the alternative lynch, and nowhere near so towny as to be impossible to scumcast on. Thus, killing him loses a defense for scum me (as well as others who pushed Zak, btw) - that he and matt were both scum - and strengthens the case against Zak votes, increasing their prominence today.

Thus, scum me wanting to kill him to further my own defense is simply inane.

(Which is not to say that scum me wouldn't do it - he was quite towny, and he's zakalwe so he's already a strong candidate absent roles. It's perfectly possible that my scum faction decided to take this chance despite the harm it would do to my defense, but it's certainly no motivation for scum wanti my to protect me.)

Still, when I flip today, look back on AdrienIers opportunism here. He's keeping his options open with a nice suspicion floating around on Saul, and his jumping on the night kill to scumfirm me just reeks. Actually makes me less suspicious of everyone else on Zak, though I don't doubt there's someone lurking amongst them (probably Fenn, but maybe I'm still angry about last game).

I know its been beat to death and Qg is already the topic of the day but this post feels so scummy. Lack of conviction and resignation... ugh.

[Gaspar]

To me, surprising would have been me, Saul, Q and Lewwyn as NK targets - people who as townies were not anywhere near being cleared.

@Fenn: Why did you include Lewwyn here? Saul and Q were obviously topics of suspicion on D1 but as far as I can remember the first fire Lewwyn's faced at all came today.

(Sorry to be spamming, hadn't intended to do it this way but once I started seemed silly to do a multi-post afterwards. Anyway, I can't imagine anyone uses post count as a way to determine my scumminess or lack thereof, given that I have a sizable baseline on both sides of the aisle.)