Ok here are my initial thought:
If the capital has popped borders by the time Brown dot has finished its work boat, then I think it has merit as a second city. We just have to make sure the wheat is improved by the time the city is founded, and I'd like us to have a road connection as well, to increase our commerce output.
I think we had pegged Hunting as our next tech, followed by Pottery. It might be a better idea to slot in Fishing before Pottery. (or even Fishing before Hunting, I'd need to a look ingame and start on a microplan to check if we'll get Fishing tech in time for Brown dot's founding) That way the new city can start on a work boat right away, and we'll get a discount once we head for Pottery. I think two work boats from the outset might work well, with one used for exploration, and the second one to net the Fish. (I'm tempted to send a third, sending them both in different directions, to have a shot at the circumnavigation bonus)
As for Yellow dot, while i'm convinced of it's worth, I think delaying it won't harm us much. Don't forget we'll need Iron Working to mine the Gems, and with the overlap of Brown and White dot, we might reconsider to a spot further north or east. Most of our new cities will have commerce potential anyway, post-Sailing and a Lighthouse, and we already have access to two Happiness resources.
As for the southern dots, we'll need to see what our warrior uncovers in the south east. At the moment you'll miss out on the Fish resource in the south east, so it might be better to move Green dot, 2 or 3W, so we can plant a decent city in the south east.
To be honest, I don't think we have a shot at the Great Lighthouse. I'd need to check the demographics, but there are probably people out there who have a sea-based capital, and let's not forget Serdoa has IND to help him out. You can be sure everyone will go for the wonder, so it might be better not to sink any hammer in a wonder we'll fail to get. With a little luck, we can just grab the wonder from a happless neighbour...
And with everyone going for the Lighthouse, we could concentrate on getting the Colossus? (Oracle Slingshot into Metal Casting?)
That way we can skip Sailing for the time being, and instead head for Myst > Poly > Priesthood.
I was also thinking we won't need Axe/Spearmen in the near future, so I suggest we don't connect our copper so we can keep producing warriors for MP purposes. Chariots should be sufficient to handle any barbs, but I'm sure there won't be a lot of those on the Home Island.
Anyway, let me know what you think, if you want we can discuss it via chat on of these days.
PS: If you're not too busy, could you send me another save?