Diplomacy No press Game 01 LURKER THREAD [NO PLAYERS]

[regoarrarr]

Okay so now my thoughts:

Austria: Not bad - I'd have probably opened Vie-Gal, especially in no-press. Now that he's in Trieste he has to worry about foreign units in Galicia

England: Good moves and he's got the channel. Personally I'd go for Bel and Norway and 2 builds. France is in Burgundy and not the Channel.

France: Solid moves. Like I said before, much better than his original moves which included F Bre-Pic. He's in Burgundy, and probably will go for Belgium. He could offer to support England to Belgium as a sign of support (though he has to watch out for England going Eng-Bre instead!)

Germany: Not bad but I don't like Mun-Tyl, espeically no press. He gave his reasons why he didn't go to Ruhr but that's where I'd have gone. Got saved from being out of place by Italy ALSO moving to Tyrolia!!!

Italy: This is actually my favorite opening move as Italy. Ven-Tyl is not necessarily hostile to Austria but we'll see how he follows it up now that the move bounced. One caution for him - he says he's following that article he sent, which is a mistake. #1, I've not had a lot of success from just following articles. #2 and most importantly, the article is for a FULL PRESS game (and specifically for Face to Face). Good luck if he is counting on Turkey supporting his convoy to Greece in the fall.

Russia: Good moves. Has to be worried about the Turkish army in Armenia but he's in Galicia and Ukraine so it shoudln't be too bad. If I'm him I ignore Austria's centers and just get Rumania. Ukr S Gal-Rum, and then have to decide whether to move Sev-Bla or not

Turkey: I like it. In no-press even more than full press you have to pick a side and just go with it. If I'm him, I probably would move Ank-Con and Arm back to Smy while supporting Sev-Rum from Bul (to signal a R/T alliance)

[regoarrarr]

Okay so here's what I woudl do for each power:

Austria: Trieste hold (or support IA Ven), Ser S Alb-Gre. Take the 2 builds and hope Russia uses Gal in Rum

England: Nth-Nwy (maybe via convoy), Eng-Bel

France: Mao-Por, Gas-Bre, Bur S Eng-Bel (try to get an alliance with E)

Germany: Den H (or S Bot-Swe), Kie-Hol, Mun H (or maybe S Yor-Bur or some other signaling move). I think I'd probably not bounce Russia

Italy: Ven S Tri, Apu-Ion-Tun

Russia: Bot-Swe, Ukr S Gal-Rum, Sev H or -Bla

Turkey: I covered this earlier but I'd pull back and try to signal an alliance with Russia

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You can always get the move maps at

http://usak.asciiking.com/webtools/gamel...bnopress01

Here's the moves

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Long thoughts from Germany

A fascinating set of moves!

England: Standard opening and now finds himself in a very good
situation. He has some interesting options, including taking Norway
and having a stab at Brest, Belgium or MAO. But the most interesting
thing he can do is to convoy his army to Belgium with support. This
gives up the chance for a second build but gains him a great strategic
position. (I'm assuming the convoy will work. Surely France would not
play MAO-ENG? Either cover Brest, take your SC in Portugal?)

Russia: Another standard opening but is in trouble because of Turkey's
aggression. There is going to be a lot of guesswork in the autumn.
Russia can (almost) guarantee himself a build but at the expense of
letting the Turk into the Black Sea and/or denying himself the ability
to build a second fleet. Can't wait to see what happens.

Turkey: Attacks Russia! I no longer hate Turkey. I hate RT
alliances because they are so damn powerful and hard to stop but I
love it when Russia and Turkey are fighting each other. He will have
to do a bit of guesswork but I can't see anything other than A
Bul-Rum, F Ank-BLA, A Arm-Sev.

Austria: First of all, I like the fact that he's taking a risk to try
and get his fleet to Greece. But I don't like his choice to cover Tri
instead of Gal. You KNOW that Russia will be moving to Gal while you
suspect that Italy may move to Tri. So why not cover the move you know
will happen? Especially since, a lot of the time when Italy attacks
Austria, he moves to Tyr and Ven so the move to cover Trieste does
didly squat. But I suppose it's easy with hindsight goggles.

Anyway, if I were in Austria's shoes, these would be my orders:
A Tri-Ven
A Ser S A Bul-Rum
F Alb-Gre
This is based on my suspicion that Russia is somewhat more likely to
(try to) ensure he gets into Rum than take a 50-50 on an Austrian
centre. And as it happens, if Turkey moves as I suspect, Russia won't
get Rumania anyway, which would be awesome! Tri-Ven just in case Italy
does something weird and definitely do not try and cover Bud or Vie
because if you guess wrong you will lose one to Italy as well. Much
better to take your build, hold Tri, tell Turkey that you'll help
against Russia and boot Russia out of your home SC if necessary in
1902.

Italy: I think that his move to Tyr was more of an opportunistic
venture rather than a determined attack. I actually think he'd have
tried for Mun rather than Vie/Tri had his move succeeded. In any case,
this turn he will surely convoy the army to Tunisia and move Ven-Tri
just in case Austria tries to cover one of Vie/Bud and misses.

Last but not least...

France! What a strange strange opening. He leaves the channel open and
moves to cover Burgundy but not support into it. It's a very
'trusting' opening. Maybe that's the message he wants to send to both
England and myself. But it strikes me as being a little naive. He now
has a silly guess over Brest and if he gets it wrong and England has
designs on him in 1902, he is in serious trouble. Funnily enough
though, there is a fair chance he'll actually be the only one to get 3
builds this year!

---

Ok so I have to evaluate where I stand now. England has made the
obvious opening so I have no idea where I stand with him. But he has
already pissed off France by moving to the channel so I am inclined to
think he'd want to get me on his side. And I am generally inclined to
work with England when I play Germany because I think we are natural
allies. This would mean bouncing Russia in Sweden, moving for Sweden
in 1902, and also moving across the maginot this year or next.

The alternative is to let Russia have Sweden hoping that I will make a
friend out of him and that I'll get some naval help from him against
England in the near future, as well a playing nice with France. But at
present I definitely favour the former.

But what is France going to do? Presumably Gascony moves to Spain and
I also suspect Burgundy moves to Belgium. I think Bur-Mun is unlikely
because of his unthreatening opening and because England is in the
channel, he doesn't want to aggravate his other neighbour. It is
almost tempting me to move to Ruhr in the autumn. If I think England
and France both make a play for Belgium then moving to the Ruhr is a
better move to give me a say in Belgium next year as well as make way
for an Army build in Munich in the winter. And it also keeps my
options open in case I want to change my mind and help France instead
of England.

If I think France will succeed into Belgium and I am sure about
attacking him then moving to Burgundy this year is the better play and
then definitely build an army in Munich! This has the additional
advantage of not risking losing Munich but the disadvantage of
annoying France if it fails.

I will ponder this some more on Saturday.

Overall I have to say that this was a very favourable set of moves for Germany.

[regoarrarr]

I have to agree with Germany that the moves turned out well for him. He was very lucky to have Italy's move to Tyl bounce his (IMO Poor) move of Mun-Tyl in the spring.

Also, I know that I wasn't going to submit the moves piecemeal but I did happen to check and saw that Italy has already submitted moves of

Ven-Tri
Apu-Ion-Gre
F Ion C A Apu-Gre

which is of the most pungent variety. Echoing with what Germany said above, Austria should NOT try to cover Vie or Bud, at which point Italy's moves have a very remote chance of doing anything worth accomplishing...

[regoarrarr]

Thoughts from Turkey

Reason for my springmoves:
To show Austria my clear intent on attacking Russia


The moves of other people:

A bit strange for a gunboatgame.

Germany letting France have BUR but attacking TYR instead ?
France letting England into the Channel?
Austria letting Russia into GAL?

Russia, England moved as expected. Italy decided to use VEN-TYR which is a good standard move too.


However thanks to Austrias move I can't prevent Russia from getting RUM which was my intent. Hoping that Germany would do the same with SWE = no build for Russia.

Austria itself has now a nice guessing game at hand but should get at least 1 build


Anyway Interesting times ahead

[regoarrarr]

And thoughts from England

England Debates Fall 1901

Power-by-power:

Austria: Very fortunate that Mun-Tyr bounced Ven-Tyr, otherwise an Italian army in Tyr would really make his life difficult. However, losing Gal means that he’s going to have a hard time holding off Russia: Tri can try to flip a coin and bounce with Gal-Vie or Gal-Bud, and he can still move Alb-Gre (since a bounce with Russia means he also bounces Ven-Tri. So Austria’s in a bit of danger. Expected moves: Tri-Vie or Bud (hits the jackpot if he’s right for one build, loses 2 SCs if he’s wrong), Ser S Alb-Gre OR Tri-Vie Ser-Bud Alb-Gre (that’s actually kind of weird, but he’s in a weird place. NO BUILDS are possible if Gre bounces there, as he either leaves Ven-Tri open and gets Ser (for Vie/Bud/Ser for 3 SCs) or ends up with Vie/Tri/Bud with Ser and Gre vacant.



Italy: Standard opening. Ven-Tri, and either Apu-Tun via a convoy or Ion-Tun and probably Apu-Ven. He gets one SC for sure, he might get two builds depending on Austria’s play. Decent start, nothing fancy. I think Italy is benefiting from the gunboat setup. Austria’s screwed b/c of it, Austria needs allies to survive unless he plays really cautiously.


Turkey: INTERESTING. Con-Bul and Ank-Bla are meag-obvious, but Smy-Arm is fascinating. It means that Russia is completely toast if Bla fall to Turkey. With Bul secure, he can order Bul-Gre and expect to bounce (it’s fine if he just walks into Greece instead of Bul, but it’s not as good. F Con = GG Russia if Russia doesn’t vacate Sev (Sev-Rum and Ukr-Sev hoping to bounce Arm-Sev?) There’s some wheels within wheels there with that move. I love it. So Russia’s going to be absurdly busy down south. OR Turkey could order Bul-Rum Ank-Bla Arm-Sev, and hope that Sev-Bla is not ordered. Arm-Sev cuts Sev S Ukr-Rum (or grabs Sev if Rum is taken with Sev-Rum, which is why Sev-Rum won’t be the order UNLESS it’s Ukr-Sev and Sev-Rum, in which case everything bounces, which is great for Turkey). Russia and Austria have had REALLY BAD S01s. Austria’s is Austria’s fault; that was a dangerous opening and I don’t see how War-Gal and Mos-Ukr WEREN’T going to happen.


Russia: Standard opening…but he’s got a weird problem down south. Gal-Vie or Bud (decent chance of grabbing a center there), but A Ukr and F Sev are in a weird spot. Conceding Bla is painful, but if Turkey does Ank-Arm and Arm-Sev, then it doesn’t really matter if he gets Bla if he loses Sev. So, Russia could get anywhere from 3 to 0 builds (Vie or Bud, Rum, and the obvious Sweden). If I were Germany, I think I’d bounce in Sweden because I’d be petrified of Russia getting 2-3 builds and swarming, but it’s a near thing. Russia could be in a pickle, in which case Germany’s got the problem of a dying neighbor = Turkey does well while he’s got to struggle to advance. So Bot-Swe, Gal – Vie or Bud, and a really tough set of calls in the south. Sev S Ukr-Rum is probably the safest option, but I still think it’s going to end up with lots of bounces and Ank-Bla either succeeding or not moving at all; I don’t see how Sev-Bla is wise because it’s too easy for Turkey to not go for Bla and just get Sev if Russia does take Bla. If THAT happens, then Russia’s really hurting fast.


Germany: Mun-Tyr worked reasonably well, everything else is standard. Den-Swe or Den H and Kie-Hol are obvious. What does Mun do? Not sure. Mun-Tyr is awful because Ven-Tyr isn’t happening, but does he worry about Bur-Mun? That’s tough; Bel isn’t a guaranteed build for France because Eng-Bel is very viable for me (why not? I can get A Yor – Nth - Nwy to pressure Russia and Eng-Bel either bounces and I keep the channel or I get Bel for a 2nd build.


France: Huh. This is a weird opening. Gas-Spa is obvious. Mao…Mao has a problem. I am ordering either Eng-Bre or Eng-Bel. Either way, he’s looking at a max of 2 builds (+ Por Spa and Bel but minus Bre = A Par and A Mar; F Mar is painfully slow since he doesn’t need southern pressure right now, Italy is looking east); the one way he only gets one build is if he does Mao-Bre and I go Eng-Bel to bounce Bur-Bel and hold him to just Spa. Fortunately, Mao-Eng is too crazy a move b/c it leaves Eng-Bel wide open to succeed.


Me:

Well, all my moves succeeded, which is good. And I’ve got options: I can press north to work on Russia, or I can press south against France; Germany’s safe for the moment, but France may be vulnerable. I think I’m going to do something a little crazy:

F Eng S Yor – Nth – Bel

A Yor – Nth – Bel

F Nth C Yor-Bel

Grab Bel with an Army, and now I’ve got the ability to do Bel S Nth-Hol, or Nth-Nwy (I’m expecting Swe to be empty after the fall…and Bel should be reasonably secure. I can now decide in 1902 whether I’m moving against France or Germany.) Also, if I’m doing Yor – Nth – Bel, it makes NO SENSE not to support it, because I’d be shocked if Bur-Bel DOESN’T happen, and I’d just be gambling on trying to get Bre. This is why I’m expecting Mao-Eng to not happen; there’s just as much reason for me to do Eng-Bre or Eng-Bel with Nth-Nwy or Yor – Nth – Nwy under a convoy. I’m expecting to build F Lon and press on in 1902.

[regoarrarr]

France sent a quick summary

quick summary of F aims. Get atleast one build and move everything back to retake Bre.

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France's guesses of everyone's orders

G F den-Nth
G A Kie-Hol
G a Mun-Bur

R F Bot-Swe
R F Sev S A Ukr-Rum
R A Gal-Vie
R A Ukr-Rum

T A Arm-Sev
T F Ank-Bla
T Bul-Rum

A A Ser S F Alb-Gre
A F Alb-Gre
A A Tri Hold

I F Ion-Tun
I A Ven-Pie
I A Apu Hold

E F Eng-Bre
E F Nth-Nwy
E A Yor-Wal
those are my guesses for hte others orders

[regoarrarr]

Okay we had a lot of chatter while I was out for the day.

First, looking at the orders that France guessed - he was pretty much way off from the actual orders (which I will paste in shortly) for every power except Austria