A Challenger Appears!

[Ceiliazul]

For now, I'll focus on the rush itself.

An excellent choice. My post was encouraging you to not be stingy with the dogs, you'll need them regardless.

Regarding hunting/AH: it's not so silly given our starting resources. Certainly viable. I also bias toward BW, but don't discredit the other options.

Next to Nicolae, huh? Here's a random brainstorm: Rush Nic instead of TheStick. If you feel Nicolae is truly most dangerous, maybe take him out instead of TheStick...

[Tankra]

It's a fine idea, actually, to rush Nicolae instead. Only problem is that he starts with Mining, meaning he can theoretically get to BW + Archery faster. Also, his capital is further away from mine (but it's only 1 or 2 turns difference, not a big deal).

But I mean, like I said before, the viability of the rush depends largely on how many mistakes my target makes. It is a good idea to just remain alert for any openings, from either of my opponents. Obviously, if both of them get Archery very quickly and build an Archer immediately, I won't be able to get very far. However, I think there's a good chance at least one of them will neglect it.

On the other hand, this is a message thestick wrote in the banter thread today:

So, Tankra, what are you planning on doing with your Dog Soldiers?

I replied:

Honestly, I picked them just for defense. With them, I can farm all day long without any need to worry :D

Which is not strictly a lie. I did pick them initially for that reason, before knowing we were so close. Hopefully they don't get too paranoid.

[CFCJesterFool]

To be fair, you didn't say *which* city you would be defending (his cap after you take it).

[Tankra]

Lol, I like your confidence, Jester.

The more time goes by, the more Ceil's idea of attacking Nicolae instead sounds good. From what I gathered from his PBEM18 reporting, his playstyle is more than a little bit impulsive and growth oriented, and he has a fair bit of confidence in his abilities (not to say he's outright cocky). Perhaps his confidence will blind him to the possibility of ever being dog rushed. Also, if I carefully manipulate the diplo side of things, I can pull a Kansas City Shuffle on him and make him AND thestick believe I'm rushing thestick, then surprise him with some GG dogs.\

On the other hand, thestick is a new player on these forums and doesn't seem like the most confident in his abilities. So maybe he'll be more likely to have a bunch of archers at the ready.

Gah. I'm seriously speculating too much right now though. Turns need to pass and I need more intel before any of this planning actually becomes useful. More turns plzkthx.

[Ceiliazul]

Turns need to pass and I need more intel before any of this planning actually becomes useful. More turns plzkthx.

[Tankra]

Just a short update cause I have basically just one thing to report. TheStick went Hunting -> Archery directly. That's right.

Rushing him is looking worse now, but we still can't rule anything out, I think. I'll need more information.

[Ceiliazul]

Just a short update cause I have basically just one thing to report. TheStick went Hunting -> Archery directly. That's right.

How did you determine archery?

[Tankra]

His soldier score went up by 6000 in one turn, and he just finished researching a tech, evidenced by a score increase. So I'm pretty much 100% sure it's Archery.

[Tankra]

T8
Alright, here's my first attempt at some meticulous and systematic C&D. I think that, overall, the end result is quite good.

First off, here's all of my data in spreadsheet form.



It is a collection of both fact and deductions (otherwise known as educated guesses), so to spare you the headaches, I'll just jump directly into my conclusions on what I think my opponents have been doing with their time.

1. TheStick (Wheel, Agriculture)
   
   -His Worker has probably been obtained on EOT 7, due to his being EXP, working the plains/hill and not having moved his settler on t0.
   -Hunting -> Archery tech path. I know this because he's the only one with two techs as of t8, and there physically cannot be someone other than him with 14000 soldiers. An easy deduction.
   
   
   
2. Nicolae (Mining, Agriculture)
   
   -His Worker has probably been obtained at the same time as mine, on EOT 8. This would make sense because he's the only other non-EXP player, and like me, he moved his settler on t0.
   -Hunting -> Bronze Working or Archery tech path. I know he teched Hunting first because of the number of turns it took him as well as having +2000 soldiers on the same turn. I also am reasonably sure that he's now teching something with a prereq due to his GNP; it's gone from 17 to 19 ever since he completed Hunting, and I know he must be the one who was at 17 GNP because he's the only other player not working a plains/hill. Next turn I will be able to tell which of the two techs it is, because if it's Archery, it'll be done already.
   
   
   
3. SAT (Myst, Mining) and Sian (Myst, Wheel)
   
   I haven't given these two as much thought because it's slightly harder to do and it's frankly not as important for me to know what they're doing, but I do have a bit of information.
   
   -Both of them have probably teched Agriculture. My reasoning is that they both teched something without any prerequisites that took 6 turns to research and gave no soldiers. Since they both already have Mysticism and they both didn't start with Agriculture, I'm almost 100% sure they both researched Agriculture. For their second techs, they also don't seem to be going for techs with prereqs, so I will assume either Mining or Hunting.
   -I'm iffy on the tiles they're been working and their Worker arrival times, but I do know SAT was working a plains/hill at the beginning and getting 5 MFG, but stopped around turn 6. No idea why (the Worker wasn't done yet). But it's not that important honestly.
   
   

---

There's just one last minor problem that I need to work out. According to all the techs they've researched up to my t8, my rival soldier count should be at 7000. However, it's at 7500 instead. This means that someone somewhere interrupted their Worker production and built a Warrior instead. Who did this? Now I can already rule out 2 people, TheStick and SAT, because they're at first and last place respectively for soldiers, and all their soldiers are accounted for. That leaves only Sian and Nicolae, which means that one of these two has probably started threatening the other one, forcing him to change his production. Very interesting.

More on these developments later.

[waterbat]

thanks T, but your spreadsheet link appears to be broken.