[SPOILERS] Can't we all just get along? (lurker thread)

[uberfish]

S1905 - Strategy

The board's now clearly resolved into a position where there are three major powers and four minor powers in danger of being squeezed out. I view a R/T stab as unlikely at this time for these reasons:

- Russia is vulnerable in the north until he has a navy
- Turkey needs control of the Western Med area if he wants to solo
- The peaceful return of Sev indicates some trust building between R/T
- High risk of a French win. France will obviously be pushing for a stab for this reason, but as the current bad guy, Russia and Turkey won't be too inclined to trust him.

Theoretically, there's potential for cooperation between F/R/T to clear the other players off the board before resolving the endgame. In practice, I don't think Russia will really want to help France, or France help Turkey. So don't expect any major alignment shifts this year.

[T-hawk]

R/T stab was unlikely? Turkey moving to the east coast of Bulgaria screams stab. It's not even a very good one though, he may as well have moved to Black Sea for more options. Mattimeo read Russia's move to Rumania as threatening, but really that was just the most direct way to get that army from Sev to the front line.

Is France stalling out on momentum? He got Denmark but couldn't hold Munich, so now he doesn't actually own any German home centers. And for England's supposed collapse, he's only lost one center and still has two. France is spreading too thin, he can't conquer both at the same time.

Russia looks good but is also stalling out, as his two armies in Scandinavia are hard to put to any further use, and the rest of his force is crawling across the dotless area until they get to Germany.

[uberfish]

Bulgaria is clearly paranoia/defensive. The Russian army could easily have gone through Ukraine to be less threatening to Turkey, so Russia is partly to blame for this.

Turkey absolutely needs all of Italy and Tunis to win - and then he still needs one SC from across the SW-NE stalemate line. Stabbing Russia before he has the Western Med secure would be a strategic blunder.

France tried to stab Italy but didn't actually get anything (the fleet in Gulf of Lyon was obviously viewed by Italy as suspicious.) Clearly he's tried to cut a deal with R/T to speed up the process of clearing the board. However, he does run the risk at this point of Italy deciding he's out of the game anyway and throwing SC to Turkey to punish the increasingly dishonourable French. In the meantime, Russia stalling France in Germany until he mobilizes more forces is good play, and he should also be talking to England. Russia's strength is that it doesn't really get stalemated and has a lot of options to get to 18 - he doesn't need to invade England to win, whereas France does. And England knows that.

[Mardoc]

I think Rowain made a mistake to build yet another army. He can't get all the armies he has into position yet, let alone a new one. He'd have done much better to get a fleet in the water, and probably to follow up with a 2nd next year if he has the build.

[uberfish]

I think Rowain made a mistake to build yet another army. He can't get all the armies he has into position yet, let alone a new one. He'd have done much better to get a fleet in the water, and probably to follow up with a 2nd next year if he has the build.

Build is also totally incomprehensible to me and I think there's a high chance he will come to regret it.

[Tatan]

I have no regrets. Except maybe that flawed opening. Oh, and all those mistakes, as well.

Very nice writeups, Uberfish!

[uberfish]

Wrong strategy from Russia imo. Helping France now while he has no navy is practically begging France to attack him in Scandinavia afterwards. Even St Pete cannot be defended against enemy naval superiority, and Russia has no attacking prospects against French holdings without a navy. And Germany + Scandinavia + St Pete + Tunis is enough for an 18 sc French win.

(For this reason, Turkey must NOT allow France to hold Tunis even if it plans to stab Russia.)

[uberfish]

Spring 1907 I think it is. Turkey's convoy to Naples looks cool but I don't think it's optimal. Convoying to Apulia earlier would have made sense because an army there can attack Rome. An army in naples has no such tactical advantage. It would be better to rotate fleets through Rom/Tus to force France to commit more units in the south and therefore slow him down in the north. If he's planning to take Sev, with or without Russian consent, he could have done it by sending the army through Armenia and been in a position to move inland from there. I guess I don't understand why Turkey is so fixated on the Black Sea when Russia doesn't have a southern fleet anymore.

I think France would have excellent win chances here - IF England was still up for playing kingmaker which he doesn't appear to be anymore, they would have enough fleets to overrun Russia in the north and force Scandinavia / St Pete. France's win condition here is basically hold Munich and Tunisia, take Berlin + Scandinavia + St Pete + everything behind. Unless R/T completely self destruct, he can be stalemated out of anything else. The England distraction should give the eastern bloc enough time to take and hold one of the German centres.

[pindicator]

Considering this game is all about the interactions and assumptions between players, I didn't think it appropriate to answer scooter's question in thread. But for after the game, I think he and rowain have made a ton of assumptions about the other party. I do see scooter's side better than rowain's, but rowain hasn't updated as much so I have no idea what his rational is for opening up moscow.

[Mardoc]

Considering this game is all about the interactions and assumptions between players, I didn't think it appropriate to answer scooter's question in thread. But for after the game, I think he and rowain have made a ton of assumptions about the other party. I do see scooter's side better than rowain's, but rowain hasn't updated as much so I have no idea what his rational is for opening up moscow.

Agreed. In particular, Rowain seems to want to use the 'if you don't back off, Turkey will eat me an win' card, but without actually saying that he's doing that! While scooter sees that's going on, but doesn't realize it's negotiable.