[SPOILERS] Hiding in the Corner - Mattimeo plays Turkey

[Mattimeo]

So this could end up being relatively painful, depending on what actual agreements exist amongst Tatan, TT and Rowain... Sev is in danger of being dislodged, I've realised exactly how fragile Ser is if Rowain turns on me, and if Tatan helps TT then I can't even force ION.

Diplo so far:
Rowain went on excessively about how he was actually planning to stab me last turn with assistance from Austria and Italy, asking them to do almost exactly what they ended up doing. He got no response, assumed it was off, and was bitching that they hadn't told him what they were doing so that he could side with them and stab me. I'm not entirely sure of his motivation in explaining that at length TO ME was...
Didn't actually get much out of him about plans for this turn (maybe that was the reason behind the excessive focus on last turn was about). Ceded that hitting Sev was a fairly tempting option for him, and was reluctant to commit Rum to attacking Bud again.

Only exchange with TT was both of claiming that our fleets were produced and positioned in response to the other. At this stage I'm relatively certain that neither of us are that interested in ever working together. Which just means that I have to be aware he's liable to hit me at any time.

I asked Tatan what would be required for him to jump on Italy's exposed backline rather than helping defend ION and smash Ser. He initially said he'd require me hitting Russia for a ceasefire and him stabbing Italy, but later ceded he was likely to attempt to grab Ven (and regain Vie with help from Germany) anyway.

Assuming Tatan follows what he told me he was planning on doing, I should be able to force ION (have to use Gre, since it'll likely be cut otherwise). Bul then follows in, Ser sits there looking pretty (by which I mean, probably bounces Alb unless I've comitted it to something else). Sev is written away as lost if Rowain wants it back badly enough, can retreat to BLA (or Rum if it's been successful in an attack on Bud) with Con being the disbanded unit if necessary.


More about the fun implications of a worst case scenario if I can find time to actually write it up :D

[Mattimeo]

Rowain is apparently hitting Bud with Vie. Still leaves things open for him to snipe Sev if he wants, but I'll willing to risk that, given he's stated that he will not be doing such. He's wanting support from Ser for the hit on Bud, which is as good as anything else I can do with it, so might as well.

Moves sent in:
A Ser S RUSSIAN A Vie -> Bud
A Bul -> Gre
A Con -> Smy
F Gre -> ION
F AEG S F Gre -> ION
F EAS S F GRE -> ION
F Sev H

If I attack ION with anything other than Gre, the support from it can be cut by Alb, leaving a 2v2, which I don't win. Therefore, have to hit from Gre if I want to force ION (and even this will fail if Tatan supports rather than snipes the centre he needs to keep his forces). Because I'm assuming Alb to be hitting Gre, I need to cover it, so that's what Bul is doing.
Con -> Smy is based on my assumption of Gre -> ION succeeding and Bul -> Gre being bounced. It allows a convoy into Italy if that seems feasible, while allowing AEG some freedom of movement - which would be useless for EAS to have, since it can't really go anywhere...

Worries: If Tatan supports ION in holding, while ION supports Alb in forcing Gre, Gre is destroyed and I lose that centre. Hence why I'm really trying to make sure Tatan is going for Ven.

[Mattimeo]

Well, that was a fairly uninspiring turn. TT and Tatan keep sending mixed messages about the extent they're cooperating - Tatan helped TT hold ION, but they could have actually kicked me out of Ser if they worked together.

I guess I need to get in contact with scooter with regard to messing up TT, then. Also with TT, I suppose, see if I can convince him that scooter poses a more immediate threat...

Was kinda hoping that Tatan would force a disband on TT, most likely getting rid of Alb for me. Looks like I'm going to have to do that myself next spring.

[Mattimeo]

Only contact with anyone since last Autumn has been TT basically saying he's going to let scooter take stuff while defending against me.
Rather awkward that I haven't even talked with Rowain... should probably send him something.

Current plans:
Ser -> Alb, Gre supporting
Bul -> Ser
EAS -> ION, AEG supporting
Smy -> Con
Sev hold

Need to kick Alb off, and might as well try for ION just in case...

[Mattimeo]

Bigger approached me about possible action against Russia. I was fairly hesitant, since it is increasingly looking (to me, at least) that scooter is going to run away with it if we let him. Hitting Russia uses units that could be instead focused on pushing my front westward.
Also, it distracts Rowain from defending against Bigger, which is not exactly something I really want... maybe once his entire army is deployed against Germany and I can slip quietly in the back, sure, but not now when he is actually in a better position to defend against me than against Germany.
Tried to keep up the impression of being willing to side with Bigger eventually, just not right now. Not sure how successful I was.

Also spoke to Rowain. Mainly consisted of me passing on that Bigger was looking for me to also hit him, but we also established a bit of trust over not needing to leave Sev and Rum manned at all times, since he definitely could do with the extra unit on the front lines. Sev, not so sure. Can't do *much* harm sitting in BLA rather than Sev, can it, especially since I do currently have a unit that's just sitting there being useless (so if Rowain does stab Sev, I have a disband I don't really mind).

Trying to get hold of scooter, see if I can convince him to hit TYS to cut that support. Probably won't be successful in the convincing, not sure there's much I can offer him to disuade him from just attempting to snipe Tun...

Only revision from earlier is Sev -> Bla rather than holding. Which I'm not really sure about myself. Liable to be changed at any time before I send orders in.

[Mattimeo]

Nice stab there by scooter. Really changes the dynamic between Bigger and Rowain. And makes it more obvious to everyone with half a brain that the main focus needs to be on stopping scooter.

Alb -> Tri, supported by Ser and Rowain's Bud. Should probably confirm with scooter that Tyr is definitely being used against Mun, but a) that info is unlikely to be forthcoming and b) might be passed on to parties that actually do care to know that I'm definitely going for Tri.
Being an idiot and letting Rowain take back Sev so he's got more to bring to bear on (or help shore up) Bigger. When it's instead used to march on Turkey, I'll be able to refer back to here with the 'I told you so'

current moves:
BLA H
EAS -> ION, S by AEG, Gre
Alb -> Tri, S by Ser, Russian Bud
Con -> Bul

Hoped outcome: lose Sev, gain Tri, no unit changes
If I don't gain Tri, will probably disband the army that's currently in Con. Screw having armies

[Mattimeo]

Rowain offered support into Vie, so I'd get another build and not get antsy about him getting heaps while I get none. Wanted me to vacate BLA (fairly specifically not in return, just as something nice, after I'd already accepted help into Vie. God(s) damn, I hate mind games like that. If you want to make a bloody deal, make the bloody deal. Giving me something for 'free' does not make me owe you, especially in a game that (theoreticall) we should both be attempting to win, which involves stabbing the other at some point. Anyway, we got into a slightly heated discussion about the merits of doing that, with him not even taking the hint when I suggested that the only *real* argument I'd accept for vacating it would be if it was urgently needed in the Med - continual waffling about your need to be strong in the north doesn't help. I already know that. It's the only reason I actually let you back into Sev in the first bloody place. Stop pushing your small gains against me *every bloody turn* while we're theoretically 'allies'.
</rant>

In other news, some discussion with scooter, seeing if he'd agree to a slightly faster division of Italy than he previously envisioned. Hopefully I can get the lines far enough west that an actual stab of Rowain (as I'm promising) is feasible. If I have to cede two Italian centres to scooter, he can win with Germany + Scandinavia. Which, if I stab Rowain while he's attempting to defend these, he's likely to be able to grab in fairly short order.

[Mattimeo]

woo sleep deprivation. 5am is the best time to be writing orders, right?

Tri->Vie, hope Rowain comes through with support
Ser->Tri
Bul->Ser
ION -> ADR
Gre->ION, S by AEG
BLA... told Rowain I was close to tossing a coin about holding or ->Con. Actually half considered doing it, too. Though that would involve finding a coin, which is probably too much effort at this stage. Eh, 'tevs. Hold. It'll annoy, but pretty sure he actually needs his attention north and west, not opening another front against me. And we appear to be reaching a stage where co-operation between us becomes harder, since I'm wanting to be curving south from Austria, while he's wanting to head north.
Also, ->Con might scare scooter off possible Italy devisions. Most important thing with Italy now is to get it *fast*, any help in doing that is appreciated, and deals about it can be broken once Italy is.

...I'm totally going to wake up to none of my armies having moved, and a French fleet in ION or something, aren't I...

[Mattimeo]

Actually, fuck it.
BLA -> Con
AEG->ION, Gre supporting

Any deal with scooter other than "Oh, I see you have the MAO-Spa-Mar stalemate line fully manned. I guess I'm going to hit whoever owns Germany now" can not be allowed to last. No point even pretending I'm actually going to make them.

I make the *best* decisions when tired :D

[Mattimeo]

oh hey, Rum
so I guess it's back to the assumption that 'Rowain will always use the units he hasn't mentioned to be annoying'

losing ION is OK, I suppose. Was reasonably confidant it'd happen, anyway. ADR can't be dislodged, and its support can't be cut without risking ION if ADR is taking part in an attack on it.

attempt to continue negotiations with scooter - if I can get Tyr to support Tri->Ven, don't need to cut Tyr with Vie. Cutting is default at the moment. Don't actually mind if Vie is destroyed, can be rebuilt back home where it's more useful for defence.

Con->Bul(ec), because screw Rowain. "Oh, I don't like you have units is potentially threatening positions, it spils our alliance" -> moves into threatening position himself. GG.

wonder if scooter is just going to grab Tun now. would be amusing, at least :D