[LURKERS] PB 42

[Bobchillingworth]

The solution to SD's Death Grudge dilemma is to throw everything against OH; OH still think they can win the game (and SD should be able to determine this through logical reasoning), and by doing everything he can to sabotage them he'll not only earn the sweeter revenge, but also end the game more quickly.

[thestick]

I wish I knew more about OH's thought process. I understand why it won't happen (he's putting his time into playing rather than reporting the turns), but I'd love to hear his reasoning behind his opportunistic strikes, and his long-term plan to win this.

[Zed-F]

Probably culture victory so his conquests are about building up a big enough production base & buffer zone to try to hold out in case someone tries to stop him. His chances probably aren’t good but if he’s still invested and Krill isn’t then he has a shot.

[thestick]

I am coming to think that this whole war was a major strategic blunder on my part. I should have asked for white peace immediately after I killed sj's initial army and refocus on Cairo. What I am getting from sj's war now is a marginal improvement of my overall economic capacity, which is already unmatched, and about a coinflip chance on taking Pyramids. Nothing of these, I think, worth losing 30-40 Rifles I am going to lose in this war. On the other hand, if I take Cairo it will bring OH to his knees and end the game.
I didn't make peace with sj because I didn't want to leave a strong enemy at my back and was afraid that Krill can invade uncontested. In retrospect, both these worries were overstated. Also, I expected Cairo to get himself some fleet like a reasonable person would do in his position but it looks like he goes straight to Rifling and will likely his Rifles of his own before I can attack. It means I'll need Infantry to break him quickly enough and by this sj detour, I lost a lot of tempo. Irritating. I don't think I am going to lose the game because of this but still a blunder.

On the other end of the world, I am growing concerned over Gavagai. He's very nearly finished up Superjm  (with help from Krill burning some of Superjm's cities), and it's looking like the game wont end any more, with OH now replacing Krill as the main rival, and one who is still actually interested in playing. That means that I'm the only logical target of Gav's after Superjm is finished up (OH is too far away, and Krill is still too powerful and Gav doesn't want to wake him up anyway). I have city visibility on Gav so I'm carefully watching for movement towards me every turn, and so far not a lot is happening, a couple Galleons and one Rifle vaguely heading towards me. But for the most part everything is still staying up in Roman lands, so I don't think I have to worry too much just yet. Nevertheless, I've decided to keep my reinforcements for the SD campaign at home until they're gathered in enough numbers to be taken over in my fleet all at once (instead of piecemeal as I've been doing until now). That way, if Gav does look like he's going to attack I'll have an actual force at home to defend, and if he isn't I can still send them over and maybe land somewhere poorly defended.

Does anyone know why OH attacked superdeath? Border disputes? Great Lighthouse?

[Mardoc]

Does anyone know why OH attacked superdeath? Border disputes? Great Lighthouse?

I don't see any reason why Zed's answer isn't still true:

Probably culture victory so his conquests are about building up a big enough production base & buffer zone to try to hold out in case someone tries to stop him. His chances probably aren’t good but if he’s still invested and Krill isn’t then he has a shot.

OH is steadily grabbing more production, more defensive depth, and more GNP.  All of that translates to a better army and better strategic position to defend his culture cities.  Plus probably better techs and civics for preparing his culture cities in the first place.

Plus, probably unintentionally (although I wouldn't bet a lot on this): he's prompting both SD and Cairo to build armies and putting some psychological pressure on Gavagai to conquer someone too.  Now that he's committed to a culture victory, it's useful to keep the rest of the world focused on 'growing the empire' and 'exciting interesting wars' as long as possible.  Think of it as the magician's flourishing hand that you're supposed to look at, while the other hand quietly focuses on making the win happen.

[Hollybombay]

I would think it would be smart for either Mr.Cairo or Old Harry to grab a quick peace to allow the other to have SD's full attention, or am i wrong?

[Zed-F]

You want to be the 2nd attacker in a 2-on-1 situation if possible, but either way, you don’t want to let up pressure after that point until you’ve achieved your war goals and don’t want to conquer any more. Giving the defender more breathing room is rarely helpful.

[Mardoc]

Yeah, let's work an example.  If OH makes peace with superdeath, then Cairo probably can't conquer any more and might lose (some of) what he's taken.  So compared to continuing the war, OH gains less for less cost, superdeath does better, Cairo is much behind.

You can argue that OH isn't gaining enough from the war to be worth the investment he's putting in - although I think that's wrong.

But how does helping superdeath and hurting Cairo help OH?  OH doesn't have a problem with Cairo gaining, Cairo will be behind OH in either case.  Superdeath is behind too, but might be holding a grudge by now.  OH therefore wants superdeath dead.  Therefore OH should stay at war.

The case isn't quite as clear for Cairo...except that superdeath grudge is still a real risk.  Helping a leader and helping yourself is not nearly as good for winning the game as helping a trailer and yourself.  On the other hand, there's always Gavagai out there - Cairo wants to improve compared to Gavagai even if his relative standing vs. OH doesn't change from the war.

Where these questions get interesting is when it's #1 and #2 considering war with a trailer.  Sometimes you get a race to see who gets more of the spoils, sometimes you get brinksmanship where they make peace as soon as the other declares, sometimes you even get #1 defending the trailer against an attempted invasion by #2.

[superjm]

I apologize for not posting much. I never received a PM asking for opinions on concession and if I had suspected the other players were itching for it I certainly would have agreed, especially after losing my initial Cavalry stack.

Although it seems now my meager but still kinda impactful defense on Gavagai is opening the door for the other players so it seems the outcome of the game is still in doubt.

Also I know reading this now that the land specifically wasn't balanced or anything but I have no idea what the heck I was supposed to do in my situation except what I just did. My capital and second city were fantastic and my Pyramids and Moai cities were production powerhouses but the rest of my land was at best mediocre and in many cases complete trash. I was *really* regretting not picking Wang Kon about 50 turns or so into the game.

[BaII]

I'm curious superjim, what was the reasoning behind running your stacks into Gavagi like that.