Out on the Rim [Mr. Cairo spoilers]

[Mr. Cairo]

Dammit Krill. You made peace with OH, which ruined my plans for attack so I had to delay. Because of that delay OH saw some of my preparations and moved units to counter:


Although he still hasn't realised the threat to his shrine city, despite seeing all my Caravels in my nearby island (all the Xbows are loaded on board so he can't see them).



But then, after throwing that spanner in my works, Krill went ahead and declared war again, causing OH to swap to Slavery and start whipping a bunch of units. They're mostly Pikes, but still. He's also pre-building Triremes while researching Chemistry. So there'll be Frigates soon, and apparently, despite the change to the Privateer taking away its hidden nationality, they can still be attacked without going to war, since Krill accidentally (I'm assuming) ran a Trireme into one of mine. So he can get Frigates and then start attacking my Privateers. I might have to close OB with OH, which would be very telling.

So, I'm putting my attack plan on hold until a more favourable time. If this new war between krill and OH is real, and involves a lot of heavy fighting on land, then I can jump in. If not, then I think I'll have to instead attack Superdeath. He's further away, and not very well developed (he's still filling out his starting continent) but he's the only other target available. I do hope Krill and OH really go at it, the power graph suggests that Krill should be:


But who knows.

I'm really annoyed too, I have a shitty situation in which I can't compete with my land alone, whereas Krill has good land, and OH has an amazing shrine city (and Gav has the land of three civs now). I can destroy that shrine city, which would ruin OH's chances of winning, but unless he's already facing a real war elsewhere I'll just be making an enemy who's more powerful than me and has no plans but to kill me. I don't really like the idea of ruining my chanes in order to ruin someone else's. But the longer Oh gets to keep that city, the slimmer my chances become. If I wait too long OH might end up winning his war and I'll lose any chance. Even if I do conquer Superdeath, it'll just make me really vulnerable to OH, since I'll be so spread out.

One thing I have learned is this. Sacrificial Altars can let you really squeeze as many hammers as possible out of shitty land, and JC of the Aztecs is the absolute best possible combination for the kind of land I've ended up with this game. But none of that is enough to compare to the natural hammers gained from high population cities with good land. I do kinda miss the days of highly-sculpted lush maps on RB, even if they did mean fewer total games played.

[Mardoc]

I do kinda miss the days of highly-sculpted lush maps on RB, even if they did mean fewer total games played.

If exploration/surprise isn't important to you, you could reuse one of them.  I'm sure you could get a mapmaker to substitute civs even if you can't get a mapmaker to make one from scratch.

[Mr. Cairo]

I do kinda miss the days of highly-sculpted lush maps on RB, even if they did mean fewer total games played.

If exploration/surprise isn't important to you, you could reuse one of them.  I'm sure you could get a mapmaker to substitute civs even if you can't get a mapmaker to make one from scratch.

Yeah, I had thought about suggesting that during the set-ups of this game and 41, but it didn't seem likely. Maybe for 44

In the game, it looks like Krill is being real this time around, and has a significant land force about to invade OH:

I'm moving ships and units into position, but I don't expect to attack for a few turns yet. I want to wait for OH to be fully invested in defending against Krill before I attack. Hopefully he'll recognise that I'm only threatening to take his outer holdings, while Krill is threatening his core, and move some of his defenders away. Of course, I am planning on doing some damage to that core, and now I have the motivation of keeping these cities out of Krill's hands.

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, Krill has yet to move out with that stack, despite it being strong enough to roll over what BGN has waiting:

Maybe he's waiting for that worker to finish a road on the tile?  


Back at home I'm busy playing mind games with OH. I had a bit of panic when I moved one of my fleets in such a manner to avoid it being seen by OH's Chariot when it moves next turn, but ended up moving it somewhere it can already be seen. I thought I might ahve to close borders to keep it from being seen. But then I realised it might have already been seen before, or at least, the caravels in it have already been seen. And so far, the way that OH has reacted makes me think that he's only worried about an attack from my Galley force, since he has not reinforced cities potentially threatened by my Caravels.

Here's the situation altogether:


The only units OH hasn't seen are the Privateers in the two fleets West of Min. Anf of course, he can't see inside my ships. He reacted to my Galley fleet by positioning units on that hill:

Image from a few turns ago, it hasn't changed since

But he hasn't reacted to seeing my Caravels by protecting the cities close to my Moai island:

Also from a few turns ago, but no change here either

Not only that, but after seeing my galley fleet he sent a trade offer:

Which sure looks like a bribe to me.

All of his reactions came after he saw those Galleys. His Chariot has been wandering around for dozens of turns seeing me build Crossbows and Caravels. But only when he saw the Galleys did he react.

And finally there's the deception he's currently running:

He's making it appear as though he's getting Chemistry next turn. I can see that he isn't, but perhaps he doesn't realise that. It's possible that this is aimed at Krill, but I don't see the point; Krill must know that frigates are close for OH, and is still fighting anyway. I don't see any other reason to run 100% science when you know it's going to go down to break-even as the turn rolls (since with Libraries and such, break-even is generally less efficient than binary).

So all told, I am making the following assumptions:
1) He doesn't consider my Caravels a threat.
2) He only considered me a threat in general when he saw the Galleys.
3) He is trying to convince me not to attack him with the Galleys.

So, with all that in mind, I think my best option is to convince him that I am more afraid of him than he is of me. He'll see my Privateers and Caravels and think that I'm worried about his Galleons, and my Galleys are just there in case of easy pickings. I wont cancel open borders, he'll see my fleet and (I would hope) assume that I know he can see it, implying that I'm trying to convince him not to attack me. If I do nothing for the next little while, perhaps he'll come to believe that I'm not an imminent danger.

In any case, I'm not attacking until Krill launches his main invasion. I'm not terribly worried about Frigates right now, since I'd imagine that the first few he builds will be used to fight Krill, and I already have over 20 Privateers, so unless he makes peace with Krill, I can keep up Privateer production to deal with the Frigates he sends my way. If it looks as though Krill is too chicken to launch his land attack or waits too long and potentially lets OH build up enough to defeat my Privateers, then I'll have to attack anyways. Because if Krill lets it get to that point, doing nothing to OH is a losing strategy too. I don't like letting the actions of another player so dictate my own actions, but at this point I have no choice.

[Boldly Going Nowhere]

Well, Krill has yet to move out with that stack, despite it being strong enough to roll over what BGN has waiting:

Maybe he's waiting for that worker to finish a road on the tile?  

LoOk...I haven't made my move in PB42 yet, don't spoil the surprise!   

Back at home I'm busy playing mind games with OH...

And finally there's the deception he's currently running:

He's making it appear as though he's getting Chemistry next turn. I can see that he isn't, but perhaps he doesn't realise that...

...I think my best option is to convince him that I am more afraid of him than he is of me. He'll see my Privateers and Caravels and think that I'm worried about his Galleons, and my Galleys are just there in case of easy pickings. I wont cancel open borders, he'll see my fleet and (I would hope) assume that I know he can see it, implying that I'm trying to convince him not to attack me. If I do nothing for the next little while, perhaps he'll come to believe that I'm not an imminent danger.  

Only if he's an Australian. 

[Mr. Cairo]

God dammit Krill, another cease-fire. What is he waiting for, exactly? OH to get Frigates? Because that's what all those whips were about. Does he really not have enough Privateers/Privateer Production that he can't hold off OH's navy for long enough for that stack to slaughter its way through OH's core? I get that I have near-perfect information on OH's military that Krill doesn't have, but still, look at the power graph:

You can win that war on the ground, right now.

If he's waiting for me, well, look again at the power graph. Look at the tech difference between me and OH:

I cannot make the first move. At this rate I really am going to have to switch targets to Superdeath.

I suppose I could stop my military build-up and try and get some better infrastructure and tech up a bit. But I don't have a lot of hammers outside of whipping, and whipping markets and such in cities that are explicitly designed around whipping has very limited value. My economy is based on very low expenses, not a high income.

I need to take more land, and OH is too strong, despite being relatively vulnerable near to me. If I attack first, he might switch his focus to me, (letting Krill take advantage), and I'll end up worse off.

In an ideal world, I could attack OH where he's too close to me, take that land, and then we can leave it at that. He'll lose a few cities, but overall his main focus will remain on Krill. But I know how many people react to being attacked in this game. It's so often taken as a personal affront, and the one attacked might decide to just put all their focus on revenge. Is OH like that? I don't know, he doesn't appear to be going all out to destroy Krill, who attacked him earlier. But, overall, I think I'd prefer the safer option.

Well, I've convinced myself. I'll move some of my fleets to less OH-threatening positions, and begin shifting an invasion force over towards Superdeath. I'll probably want some settlers and workers as well as he hasn't yet filled out all the city spots around here:


His economy is doing very well. Great Lighthouse + Cothons are very good, but his power is very poor. I'll need a lot more Caravels to carry the invasion force, and I'll want to start building up a force of Knights for a longer offense than the more defensive-minded units I've been building now (WE's, Xbows, Pikes). Lots of Catapults too, but I've already begun that build up. I think I'll want ~ 20 Caravels in total. I'll still keep a good number of Xbow-filled Caravels and my Galley fleet, and plenty of Privateers around to ware off OH, but unless things rapidly change on the Krill-OH front, my current plan is to attack Superdeath asap.

[Mr. Cairo]

Well, the war between Krill and OH has begun again, again.

This time Krill is actually attacking:



But OH is retaliating on the seas:



I'm going to reposition my units. As Krill powers through those first couple of cities it should occupy all of OH's attention, giving me the opportunity to strike at his islands, and burn at least one of his mainland cities.

[Mr. Cairo]

Last turn OH used his navy to take (back?) some island cities. He also assembled a decent stack of Knights in his mainland. Not a small amount, but still only about half of what Krill invaded with. But if Krill lost all his collateral attacking that first city, then he could have been seriously slowed down. He also only had 2 Pikes. As it happens, he didn't just get slowed down, he stopped. And for good this time. I started my turn with this:

I suspected that either they were at peace or Krill was advancing once again. It turned out, to my disappointment, if not surprise, that they were at peace. And it was real peace this time, not  a cease-fire. I had a look around OH's land and saw him moving units back towards the west, so I think he's planning to go and finish off Lewwyn.

So we're back on the attack Superdeath plan. I offered fish-fish back to OH, and started to move my fleet towards a staging point by my capital:



Here's the totality of my current military:



This is what I've got to my East, originally slated to attack OH, but now a laughable defensive force in case Gav invades:



A few cities:

Golden Age in 12 turns unless I'm very unlucky and get another Spy. But with the National Epic in there it won't be a very long time before I can get another Great Person, and I'll probably not run a spy to make sure, if that situation arises.


Pretty mediocre as far as capitals go, but that can be said for my entire empire.


Just swapped back to coast tiles from the mine and workshops, after this caravel I'll probably get it to build a Library + Market. And a castle once I get my stone back (currently trading it for marble with Superdeath, heh.) In fact, once I get stone back I'll probably build walls and castles in a bunch of my cities, since I'll be able to whip them out quickly enough. Might also see if I can fit harbours in some of those cities as well for eventual half-price customs houses. But that's a long-term plan, and who knows how long this game will last for.

Demos:

I'm average in GNP (which means low considering there's a couple nearly dead civs out there), low in hammers, high in food. And I was only able to acheive that last one by sacrificing the previous two, and I'm still behind Gav, Krill, and OH. I'm even with Superdeath in MFG, but even if he started to prepare right now, I'm still so much ahead in power that I still think I can pull off this invasion.



My main fear now is that OH is going to end up attacking Superdeath before I can.

[Mr. Cairo]

Superdeath sent me this:

I have no idea what this is supposed to mean, so I just did nothing. He's currently teching to Rifles, idk how far out he is, but he'll probably get Rifling at least a few turns before I land. However, he has barely any units in the area I plan to attack, his production is low, he's not got nationhood for drafting, and his food is low so whipping isn't going to make enough. I hope. Overall, I plan to simply overwhelm the first few cities and their meager defenses with Knights, before following up with collateral and other 1-movers to deal with anything he responds with. By that time I'll be coming with Muskets, and I'll be able to just outproduce him with Muskets and Cats.

All this may be moot, as Gav has started to move Knights in my direction:

I can't see many boats though, just one Galley. He's about to get Astro so he'll have Galleons soon. What can I do about this? Not a lot, so I'm going to do nothing. If he lands I've lost, regardless of whether I've attacked SD or not. So, my best odds of success are to continue with the invasion plans, and just hope for the best re: Gavagai.

[Mr. Cairo]

In case anyone is still reading this, here's a screenshot of my entire empire:


I think that overall, the plan I had for this empire is working pretty well. My whipping cities are letting me punch above my weight in military, while all my filler cities are contributing to my economy and thanks to the cottage spam, will only contribute more as the game progresses. It's still not enough compared to Krill, OH, or Gavagai, but at least I'm not food.

All the little notes on my whipping cities (8->6, etc) are the 'ideal' 5-turn whip cycles, but of course, nothing is ever ideal, so whip unhappy is piling up, but I have enough of a happy cap that I don't have to worry about it for a little while. Also, as of next turn I'm going to be making pretty much only Muskets and will probably try and let those cities grow to that maximum pop and better manage the overflow.

And yes, I've had no Barracks in my capital for 182 turns... it's only made naval units for the last little while so it hasn't been necessary, but it'll be making Muskets soon so I might as well.


Now, on to the war. Here's the target


He has very few units guarding these southern cities so I'm going to try and land outside several of them at once. Settle, Marble, Phyrexia, and Modern if it's grown. They do have walls and possibly castles (which is why I want Muskets), but with only a single units defending each I should be able to overwhelm them with that first wave. My galleys are going to be ferrying units to Dinosaur island so my Caravels wont have as far to go to get reinforcements. The first wave will consist of a few Catapults, a few WEs, all of my Knights (~8 I think), and some Xbows and Maces. I probably wont use the catapults on any of those first few cities, just soften the defenders with WEs or Maces before taking them with the Knights. The Catapults will be there to deal with whatever initial forces he sends down in response so I can hold those first few cities while my next wave arrives.

SD is about to get Gunpowder, and his GNP suddenly skyrocketed last turn so I'm fairly sure he's on wealth/research builds in most of his cities, although a catapult did just appear in the one city I currently have EP visibility on. In any case, Rifling is a very expensive tech and he doesn't have a huge amount of cash currently, so I don't think he'll get it for another 6-8 turns; and it'll be even longer than that before I'll be facing them in large numbers. I'll also do a massive EP dump into him the turn before I land to get city visibility across his entire empire. With that and a massive numerical advantage I should be able to beat him.    

My fleet will move out next turn.