[Spoilers] Alhazard goes back to BTS

[Alhazard]

T20




Land points are credited this turn so it is time figure out how many tiles each person started with so that we can solve point increases from here on.
We figured out that each tile is worth 2.2573 points and from the demos in T0-1, each player started with 6~9 tiles.
6*2.2573 = 13.5438 points
7*2.2573 = 15.8011 points
8*2.2573 = 18.0584 points
9*2.2573 = 20.3157 points

From PBSpy
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    RegentMan    score increased to 65 (+13)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    chumchu        score increased to 61 (+15)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    Irismono    score increased to 61 (+15)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    Commodore    score increased to 67 (+15)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    Gavagai        score increased to 66 (+20)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    superdeath    score increased to 72 (+26)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    Icehazard    score increased to 70 (+18)
05/03/2019 14:27:57    20    Donovan Zoi    score increased to 73 (+21)

So we definitely know that RegentMan started with 6 capital tiles, chumchu/Discord/Commodore with 7 tiles. I think it is safe to assume that Gavagai has 9 capital tiles (ouch no seafood to improve) since the only score increases we should see should be 6 from a tech or population (3 pop = 19.89 points and 2 pop = 13.26). With this assumption, we can take that SD also started with 9 capital tiles and DZ also had 7 capital tiles. The math in the spreadsheet confirms so we are good until we have to redo this with each capital's 2nd ring tiles. So what did SD and DZ tech? SD last teched AH on T12 and now teched something on T20, which is way too many turns for mining, the next logical step. So maybe he teched pottery? In my sim, pottery has 124 total beakers and you get the 1.2 multiplier from Agriculture so you only need base 104 beakers. To get this, you need 104/8 = 13 beakers per turn, which could be possible with overflow from AH and if he improved a riverside sheep first, which gets the FIN bonus. Curious decision considering that he can't build a fast granary and I don't think building cottages this early is appropriate instead of focusing on expanding. DZ did tech Hunting on T13 so it is logical that he teched mining this turn. Aside from the Mining tech, there was a global increase of 4K aka 2 warriors.

[Alhazard]

T21




Finished roading the deer tile, which my sim showed was important not only for the obvious connection to the fur city, but also for the silver city. Next tile to road, while waiting for BW, would be the plain tile SE. Now I am sure that tile is 100% safe from unseen animals but I will move the warrior there also to make sure.
Chumchu was the first person to get to size 3, and there was another warrior made from the global 2k power increase. Warmongers I tell you.

[Alhazard]

Started roading outside BFC, which is not too risky but you never know. The warrior then will go ahead and start scouting the sheep area. The worker then would probably road NW of capital then go to W of capital to start the 1st chop. Plan is to chop the 3 trees in the 1st ring of capital that is mirrored so we can put down some cottages. Just realized that a forest grew on the the plains fur. I don't think there is much of a difference though.
In global news, Commodore grew to pop 3 and teched something and Discord and RM either grew a pop or teched. There are only 3 other players besides me who grew to 3 pop, based on math, and since we know chumchu and Commodore did, it only leaves one of the remainers. Now I noted that the Discord team researched Hunting on T7 and haven't teched anything since so I will put that they teched BW, which is reasonable at this time. Aside from BW, there was no other increase in global power, so I will log that Commodore teched Agriculture.

[Alhazard]

Road done. Both units will retreat back to BFC next turn. On second thought, I think I will chop the tree N,NE of capital 1st because the sheep city could work that tile instead of W of capital tree.
I got the land score for the 2nd ring. (8 tiles = 18.0584 pts and 16 tiles = 36.1168, 16 pt difference). SD+chumchu+gavagai+DZ got 6 pts this turn. Since SD+DZ teched something on T20, it is impossible for them to tech something this turn so I have that they grew their cap to 3. The population math shows that chumchu+gav did not grew their capital so they must have teched. Chumchu teched mining on T8 and Gav teched agriculture on T9 so I will assume that both teched BW. Besides the power increases from BW, there were 3 more warriors made this turn. Why do you need so many warriors this early in the game?

[Alhazard]

Capital's 2nd ring land tiles got credited so time to figure out who got what. There was no pop increase so I just have to rule out any hidden tech gains. SD and Gavagai, who had 9 tiles in 1st ring, most certainly got 21 tiles total for 27 points (9 tiles = 20.3157 and 21 tiles = 47.4033 points) and there is no way to get 21 additional land points since 18 tiles give you 40.6314 points and 19 tiles give you 42.8887 points. DZ got the lowest increase 21 points but he started with 7 tiles so it is possible that he got 16 tiles total now (7 tiles = 15.8011 and 16 = 36.1168). RM and Discord got 23 points. Commodore and chumchu both got 25 points and started with 7 tiles so it is possible that they got 18 tiles in the BFC (7 tiles = 15.8011 and 18 = 40.6314). Now RM and discord both got 23 points but RM started with 6 tiles and Discord started with 7 tiles but it is possible that both got only land points. (6 tiles = 13.5438 points and 16 tiles = 36.1168; 7 tiles = 15.8011 and 17 = 38.3741). After we assign 10 tile gains to both of those players, the math does work out. Therefore, no one researched a tech.
Globably, I noticed 2 warriors dying to animals since the overall global power decreased by 4k. Now reading the tech thread issue, who could have declared on SD? Most likely the MP Discord team who is trying to warrior choke since it is expected in MP i think? They can declared legally next turn, and in turn basically eliminate themselves and SD from contention. Just don't mind old me going 1 military unit into expansion as if I am playing Starcraft. To be even more conservative, I will just park the warrior at the settling spot now to get the fortify bonus ASAP for the 2nd city. The 1st warrior built from that city can scout Northward.

[Alhazard]

T26





T27




Absolutely no score change or demo change in these past 2 boring turns. I did miss that both top power and lowest power decreased by 2k on T25. So the Discord team lost a warrior and one of SD/Comm/DZ did. Curious that there was no war dec on T26 since the Discord team double played their turn. Maybe it was an oppurtunisitic attack and not a real warrior choke.

[Alhazard]

T28




Copper found in a very good spot. 2nd city can claim it and this city will be configured to work 20 hammers per turn (1 deer tile since forest will be chopped + 1 city + 2 fur + 2x3 grass hill mine + 1 plain farm + 5 copper + 4 plain hill mine) at size 8. You really want a city like this dedicated to unit production. Will throw down a heroic epic then it can pump 2t knights with a forge (20h*1.25% = 45 h and each knight is 90h). Now I choose to hoard gold this turn so maximize my beakers when I turn on tech after I found the 2nd city and the 5 additional commerce this will bring (2 trade route + 2 commerce from fur city center + 1 commerce from flood plain). My testing showed that I will research agriculture and pottery just as the money runs out.
There was no increase in power or pop and the Discord team got a tech. Safe to say that this is fishing.

T29




Lined up everything so that I can revolt into slavery while the 1st settler is in transit. You really want to do this to minimize the lost production due to the civic change. (or ignore if you are SPI). I was only able to line this up by going work boat first so the commerce from the fish tile propels my tech.
Regentman also got a tech and the global power increased by 8k so i am sure he got BW just now. From the top power, he has 4 warriors, which seems a lot at this point in the game.

[Alhazard]

Now lets talk about deer in civ6. It bugged me to no end that a harvested deer would give production, not food, as you would think. Completely out of flavor. If this happened to lets say buffalo, I could make some arguments that it is plausable. But no way with deer.
Right now, Bambi is working the deer tile, but only for this turn and next turn. Then it has to give back the deer to capital, which actually speeds up the next build order in capital of worker, settler, then worker done at exactly. When the flood plain tile gets farmed, the capital can work that for 1 turn also instead of deer. The last worker will finish exactly at 60/60 then Bambi can work both deer and the farmed flood plain for food. I actually did sat down and simmed/calculated this out before I played the turn. The reason why I am having the 2nd city work the deer for 2 turns now than later is because of the extra hammers into warrior, in case I need guy sooner than later. Sadly, the faster settler means that I will need to save gold before finishing pottery.
chumchu and Commodore settled before I did and both claimed 15 tiles among them. Other than the expected power increase from the cities, there was a global increase of 4k power. From the GNP, I take it that the discord team and/or RM revolted into slavery this turn and will settle next.
EDIT: just realized that the lowest power increased by 4K, which is likely means a chariot. Don't like this 1 bit.
EDIT2: well the only person who could make this is SD. Hopefully he is not near me.

[Alhazard]

Global increase in power by 4K and Gavagai teched. Probably his wheel. Discord team settled after I played and they made their settler on size2, now total 3 pop.

[Alhazard]

Ok so start off. C&D fail. I completely missed that Commodore teched and settled his city on T30. He probably had the low power until then and probably teched the wheel, which is reasonable. Also since the rival land was 27, easy to figure out that one got 9 tiles and other 6 since they both had 18 tiles from capital.
On T31, after I played, the discord team settled their 2nd city and got 4 tiles.
On T32, DZ settled his 2nd city got 6 land tiles, noted that he did not settle in the wooded area to his north from fog gazing. chumchu teched something. Could be Agriculture or the wheel. Probably agriculture. SD definitely teched BW. After I played, SD and RM also settled their 2nd city. Curious that the former did so while likely in anarchy.
On T33, Gavagai settled his 2nd city. Between the 3 of them, they got 18 tiles. SD also whipped his capital, probably for a granary. His position looks strong.
Bear makes my scouting sad even before the 2nd warrior is complete. 2nd worker will pre-road the forest, which is in the safezone, so I am not wasting too many worker turns. Will chop that tree for the workboat and eventually cottage it.