[SPOILERS] Cornflakes and giraflorens PB49 - any stock traders out there?

[Cornflakes]

   

Carthage has been located in the northeast. The "island" is in fact part of the mainland   Those furs are not my furs but in fact only 3 tiles from Carthage    ... for those following along at home I'm zoomed out into the world overview mode using the culture overlay. Curiously I check this view nearly every turn yet only noticed the Carthage culture this turn. That spot of culture should have been visible starting at T5 after our capital's borders popped to 2nd ring. I know for certain 100% that I checked culture overlay since T5. But I don't see any conceivable way that Carthage could have acquired culture on that tile after T5. Even as Creative they won't get 3rd ring borders until T25 and we're only at T13. I must have simply overlooked Carthage culture up to this point.

Also we met India in the east. Miguelito / pindicator - Justinian (SPI/IMP) of INDIA (Mysticism/Mining)

Miguelito is a total unknown to me. Profile says he joined in 2014 about the time I started a couple year break from Civ.  I like this combo a lot from a flexibility and pure power perspective. India's granary UU is excellent, the Pike UU overwheliming on defense. As with all IMP leaders, they will need to balance expansion in order to not totally crash the economy. SPI is great for flexibility in the late game. I like this combo, and the starting area includes a beautiful floodplains valley to cover with cottages and grow for the long term. 

Here's a (slightly) closer view with resource bubbles on:

   

[Cornflakes]

Met Commodore's scout (facing east) midway between India and Carthage. I expect Commodore's scout to be headed homeward, with Commodore located east of Carthage. My own scout is headed home as well and should reach the Wheat T28-ish. Depending on how rough the tarrain is I will hopefully reveal most of the tiles between us and Carthage by the time my scout gets home.

[Cornflakes]

Commodore - Boudica (AGG/CHA) of Japan (Fishing/The Wheel)

I like Japan, but Boudica just feels too slow. I would have preferred EXP/CHA (boost the harbor in addition to general development), or even EXP/IND since forges are on the Samurai beeline and their harbor UU gives 2nd promo even without CHA. This combo has no economic support, other than CHA happiness. Will Commodore be able to reach Samurai in time to roll over someone? And if he does roll over someone early, will he be able to consolidate and not fall behind technologically? I don't doubt Commodore's ability to pilot Japan to a decent mid-game, but unfortunately for Commodore I think this combo will find itself outpaced by the end.

I'm pleased that Commodore is the neighbor's neighbor. Perhaps we can arrange a mutually beneficial military understanding and divide the players between us at some point. I will hopefully establish positive trade relationship early and try to foster cooperation if possible.

   

Here are 3 more turns of exploration relative to the previous screenshot. I'm debating now whether to return the scout immediately to uncover the remaining tiles around the (dry) wheat for a possible alternative 2nd city site, or press forward to explore the Carthaginian homeland and to determine what expansion prospects they have that don't include cutting us off from mainland expansion. I'll have a warrior completed a couple turns before the settler that can poke around the wheat, and I'm whipping a Bowman to overflow into the settler so I won't be lacking in military to guard the settler. Given that I intend to split off pigs to the 2nd city, my warrior should be able to adequately uncover the few remaining tiles around the wheat. Therefore exploration will likely continue with N-NE > follow the river downstream to the coast (where I expect to find Commodore's borders) > loop N/NW following the coast until I hit Carthage borders > Turn south/homeward to push back the remaining fog between us and Carthage, and take up fogbusting duties.

[Cornflakes]

 Commodore is much closer to Carthage than I thought

   

I count 9 tiles between their capitals. There will be fireworks   I need to be prepared and flexible to react. I cannot allow Commodore to capture all of Carthage and pin me to the peninsula.

[Cornflakes]

My QID trade is not performing well, down 15%   Based on the pre-market reaction to the "reopen the economy" plan it seems likely that I'll be stopped out at a 20% loss today. I'm not using "active" stop loss order, but rather a "mental" stop loss executing stop loss based on closing price. So what went wrong? I can see two errors, and both fall under "Risk Management":

1) I did not wait for "confirmation" of the candlestick. Even though the candlestick on 4/7/20 appeared strong and lined up with the other trend markers, I should still have waited another day for confirmation that a downtrend was developing. See again this link: https://www.luckscout.com/the-language-o...ndicators/ and do a search for "confirmation"

2) I put all my eggs in one basket and traded my whole account into one position. Although the account was only $45 I still should have practiced risk management and only bought 1 share instead of two.

   

[suboptimal]

Over what time frame(s) and which methods are you using to determine "trend"?

Also, based upon your current analysis I take it I should be short Carthage?

[Cornflakes]

Over what time frame(s) and which methods are you using to determine "trend"?

Major trend is down-down-down based on fundamentals. COVID-19 induced shutdowns have brought the economy to a screeching halt. Not to mention the democrats can't allow Trump a strong stock market on election day, so we're headed down at least until November. The specific route that the rollercoaster takes to get there will involve ups and downs. I attempted (apparently incorrectly) to identify the short-term downturn which would continue the major down trend based on the support/resistance trend (blue line in previous analysis) and Fibonacci retracement, combined with candlestick.

Also, based upon your current analysis I take it I should be short Carthage?

Patience is advised at this time, confirmation is still required perhaps developments over the next couple dozen turns may reveal that Babylon would be a better short Or the timing may be off and Khmer my still be the better short now, with Carthage displaying weakness later. As a trader you have flexibility to hop in-and-out as the information changes. In any case, I wouldn't recommend putting all your eggs in one basket and holding any one nation for the long term at this stage

[suboptimal]

Over what time frame(s) and which methods are you using to determine "trend"?

Major trend is down-down-down based on fundamentals. COVID-19 induced shutdowns have brought the economy to a screeching halt. Not to mention the democrats can't allow Trump a strong stock market on election day, so we're headed down at least until November. The specific route that the rollercoaster takes to get there will involve ups and downs. I attempted (apparently incorrectly) to identify the short-term downturn which would continue the major down trend based on the support/resistance trend (blue line in previous analysis) and Fibonacci retracement, combined with candlestick.

Ah, OK. That purple line is the resistance line from the analysis. For long-initermediate-short term trends I'd consider the following lines:

LT - connect 2017, 2019 and 2020 lows for support as overall trend is up. No long-term resistance lines at this scale
IT - connect Jan 19 and Jul 19 lows as support, resistance as you've drawn
ST - on daily chart (second image in that first look) connect Feb 14 top and early Mar top as resistance, Mar & Apr bottoms as support. Given the current spike up I'd also consider connecting the early Apr low and the green candle just before the gap up (after your trade entry) as supplemental support.

I would argue that the long term support held but was tested, with the next leg down to support indicating what happens next. Intermediate trend broke the uptrend when it tanked, broke resistance when it recovered. Short term (daily) the trend is up.

If I were trading on a year-to-year time scale I'd be going long. If I were trading on a weekly or monthly basis I'd be in cash looking to go long if it gets above support or short of if goes back below resistance, using those lines with a cushion as a stop. If I were trading daily I'd be looking at going long with the shallower support line being my approximate mental stop.

All of this is strictly by the charts and doesn't take into account COVID-19. I don't think the stock market being held down is a function of polictics, at least in terms of Democrats not allowing a strong stock market. The economy is in the crapper (or headed there) and once Q1 and particularly Q2 earnings start coming out I think things head down. What Treasury and the Fed do in terms of bailouts and stimulus will have a larger impact than the will of a political party regarding election desires.

Also, based upon your current analysis I take it I should be short Carthage?

Patience is advised at this time, confirmation is still required perhaps developments over the next couple dozen turns may reveal that Babylon would be a better short   Or the timing may be off and Khmer my still be the better short now, with Carthage displaying weakness later. As a trader you have flexibility to hop in-and-out as the information changes. In any case, I wouldn't recommend putting all your eggs in one basket and holding any one nation for the long term at this stage
[/quote]

Hmmm...that sounds like I need to go to the options market and invest in a spread....do I bet on stability or volatility?

[Cornflakes]

QID was only down 1% today so I wasn’t stopped out. Let’s watch the negative sentiment build over the weekend 

[Cornflakes]

Cracked the whip for the first time this turn 

   

Garden completes EOT in Risk Management. Copper is also revealed southwest near the currently-penciled 2nd city. I considered shifting the city to the copper tile for a 3-hammer city center but the 1st ring tiles are just plain bad. If I plant 1E of clams it will be a slower start, but then I can work the clams from size 3 onward and break even vs settling on the copper. That's 30 hammers lost early game for a long-term much stronger city. Also the Gardens isn't delayed at all, and the workboat only has a single turn delay. So really there isn't much impact.

Check out the lay of the land to the east. Carthage seems to be on a tiny bulb of land, and basically has to cut us of or be cut off by me. Commodore has an inland start. The vicinity of the gold is dry foodless plains. Those peaks prevent Commodore from squeezing Carthage as much as he could, but still I'd prefer our starting location to Carthage (unless there is much more land on their bulge than it currently appears).

Somehow Elkad is still size 1 on T23 he has not adopted Slavery yet according to the advisor so can't have whipped down. I cross-confirmed with PBSpy and Miguelito and Fintourist are the only other players who have whipped (both last turn, 1 ahead of me). Mig was 4>2 ... He's IMP so I suspect settler. Is T22 too early for a settler?

Tech-wise I'm planning Archery now > fishing for 2nd city clams > Sailing for the island > ... Iron Working for gems and expansion via the sword  ? ... Can I war effectively without Writing, math, currency? On a tight map like this maybe? Get a quick elimination of either Carthage or Khmer to get some breathing room?