WW27 Game Thread: Once there were 12

[Azza]

From a quick reread, the closest I came to defending him was calling him anti-town rather than scummy, and saying his posts were annoying to read so I didn't have a read on his alignment.

EDIT: Oh right, that post I quoted and spoiled had you commenting on my comments on MJW being anti-town rather than scummy, and not being convinced by someone I thought was scummy. If that's what passes for defending these days, it's pretty weak.

[Azarius]

I still feel Gazglum is the best lynch currently. Mattimeo still feels suspicious to me as well. Some of what he has posted today has diminished that, but he also posted that really off feeling lean list as well. Given the interest in Azza I went back and reread him. Nothing he has posted in and of itself feels really off to me, but taken as a whole he really does not feel like he's said much of substance. I still have reservations about Jowy as well, but I do feel that his vote on MJW is a mark for him. Also, much of what I don't like about him is pretty much the exact reasons I wanted to lynch him as Muriel last game. I know he said he was roleplaying that game, but I think his natural style just might be aggravating. My preferred lynch today is Gazglum, and I would be okay voting either Mattimeo or Azza.

Also, I've noticed a few people (Gaz and Jowy?) commenting on me being around but not saying anything intentionally. If my PC is on I'm pretty much logged into RB, and my phone is usually as well on one of it's windows, so I show online a good deal more then I am. I'm not trying to completely excuse my low post count, but it does seem as if I'm a minority this game as far as time zones go. There is a large stretch of time where this thread is pretty much dead that falls right into my prime time to be around. I would prefer it if I was able to post back and forth more, as it is half the things I ask or respond to take hours to get around. Most of the postings seem to happen when I'm asleep.

[Azza]

The post you're quoting in post 512...

Yeah, I didn't read which posts of mine you were quoting in that, so I assumed it was for defending Gazglum which I admit I have been doing.

[Azarius]

Other thought I've had. Azarius' claim is true in that he's a jailer, but what if he is the scum jailer. We got this from zak...

A deliberate no kill from scum seems unlikely, so Azarius' claim is pretty strong if it isn't contested. And if he is scum, he could also have claimed to jail someone else who was less trusted, with much more disruptive results, likely leading to a mislynch. So to be precise, the combination of not killing and then claiming to jail Novice seems unlikely.

Effectively, he dismisses the possibility of it being a scum ploy, and everyone's happy to accept that. But given that people seem to be ending up on me as a process of elimination lynch, I'm not happy with just accepting this any more.

Add to this Azarius and zak instantly jumped on Gazglum with no explanation at the start of the day following novice. This implied that someone had information that meant Gazglum had been caught in the act. But we know that Azarius didn't have anything to indicate who went after novice, if someone even did. So why the instantwagon on Gaz?

How does this even make sense? If I was a scum jailer, I would have given the town an extra mislynch for no apparent reason. How does being a jailer even fall into this? Couldn't scum just not kill anyone? What would be gained by not killing, then announcing myself as a jailer, and saying I jailed novice of all people, and that I did it because I think he is innocent? If I had claimed to jail, say, Mattimeo, and that since he was jailed noone died and he must be scum, there would be quite a bit of chaos and a likely mislynch from that..... which would leave as many mislynches left as if there was a kill the previous night anyways. Why do you believe I am a jailer, but possibly a scum jailer? What evidence is there that I am a jailer other than the no kill, which if I was scum could be accomplished without me being a jailer. Saying you believe my claim but I might be scum makes no sense at all. The reasoning in this post from you is just awful Azza

[zakalwe]

Well, that was a weird conversation with Azza. Apparently, he doesn't feel very guilty about defending MJW.

Gazglum, then.

[Azza]

Other thought I've had. Azarius' claim is true in that he's a jailer, but what if he is the scum jailer. We got this from zak...

A deliberate no kill from scum seems unlikely, so Azarius' claim is pretty strong if it isn't contested. And if he is scum, he could also have claimed to jail someone else who was less trusted, with much more disruptive results, likely leading to a mislynch. So to be precise, the combination of not killing and then claiming to jail Novice seems unlikely.

Effectively, he dismisses the possibility of it being a scum ploy, and everyone's happy to accept that. But given that people seem to be ending up on me as a process of elimination lynch, I'm not happy with just accepting this any more.

Add to this Azarius and zak instantly jumped on Gazglum with no explanation at the start of the day following novice. This implied that someone had information that meant Gazglum had been caught in the act. But we know that Azarius didn't have anything to indicate who went after novice, if someone even did. So why the instantwagon on Gaz?

How does this even make sense? If I was a scum jailer, I would have given the town an extra mislynch for no apparent reason.

You verify your role, causing people to clear you as being a scum candidate (see zak's quoted post). Is that not a reason?

How does being a jailer even fall into this? Couldn't scum just not kill anyone?

If you know scum has a jailer, it's a safe claim. If you know you're that jailer, you know you can't be caught lying.

What would be gained by not killing, then announcing myself as a jailer, and saying I jailed novice of all people, and that I did it because I think he is innocent?

Because you want to make sure you look like a villager. Jailing novice to protect him is an obvious town play, you'd be questioned over your choice if you'd picked someone else.

If I had claimed to jail, say, Mattimeo, and that since he was jailed noone died and he must be scum, there would be quite a bit of chaos and a likely mislynch from that..... which would leave as many mislynches left as if there was a kill the previous night anyways.

I'm not looking at it from a framing perspective, because as noted that wouldn't be a favourable exchange for scum.

Why do you believe I am a jailer, but possibly a scum jailer? What evidence is there that I am a jailer other than the no kill, which if I was scum could be accomplished without me being a jailer. Saying you believe my claim but I might be scum makes no sense at all. The reasoning in this post from you is just awful Azza

Jailer can be, and often is, a scum role. So the fact that you've claimed it does not clear you as potentially being scum. I know all about truthfully claiming a role and riding that to victory, so forgive me if I am inclined to feel a little wary towards completely trusting your claim.

If zak flips scum like my gut says he will, I'd definitely be targetting you next.

[Azza]

Well, that was a weird conversation with Azza. Apparently, he doesn't feel very guilty about defending MJW.

Gazglum, then.

It's hard to feel guilty about defending someone if you don't think you defended them.

[Azarius]

I see, you're saying it'd be worthwhile doing to gain the town cred even if it meant adding another needed mislynch. It's definetely something I could see you doing yourself, so your post seems more reasonable now. Back to Gazglum then. Also Zak, fwiw, I also interpreted your comments to Azza as being related to Gazglum not MJW until you explained.

[Jowy]

A theory I had on a possible sacrifice was that the remaining scum duo is Azarius + someone from the MJW voters. Though I doubt it would be a planned sacrifice, rather things just went that way and they ran with it. The other guy voting against MJW, the following no lynch, and fake-claim from Azarius, would give both of them good cover and make the village waste the next two days on miss-lynches on the other two Matt voters. 7-2 after no-lynch night, 6-2 after day, 5-2 after night, 4-2 after day, 3-2 after night. So after those two miss-lynches, the village would have one shot to hit one of the wolves. But without the no lynch, they would have needed one less village miss-lynch to win, so is the tradeoff worth it? Some proof on Azarius would be his lurking, and that his reveal was generally ill-timed, benefiting him but not the village. The village learned nothing of alignments, but Azarius gets a free pass. He should have waited and tried to use the ability more. That said, the reason I didn't share this theory is because it is very much a long shot and only worth following up on if everything goes wrong with the current plan (=Azza and Gaz both roll village). We can learn whether Azarius is legit or not.. If Azza and Gaz both roll village and Azarius is still somehow alive after two nights despite being a known power role, at that point we can safely say he is a fraud. I suppose the reason I bring this up after all is to support the fact that Azza isn't completely crazy with his theory. Or maybe we are both crazy? :P

[novice]

Vote tally when Azza votes Mattimeo on day one, courtesy of my development version of MafiaHelper:




Note that Azza's weakly founded vote makes it 4-4 (Gazglum's vote on Mattimeo is listed on Matt).

Also, Mattimeo pushed MJW to 4 votes when nobody else had more than 2, that's a pretty good village tell on Mattimeo. (And shows why Azza's vote on Mattimeo is poorly founded, as it's a bit early to start voting self defense at that point. (Azza answered this later saying it was self defense because Mattimeo was going offline.)