The Dark arts - C&D Master Thread

[Dantski]

sleep well kjn!

[kjn]

Ah, well, can't be bothered to do a formal rundown. Here's a raw dump of my notes.

25: WPC, CivPlayers, CFC

26: RB

27: +43; CivFr city, CFC

28: CivPlayers

29: WPC, German city

31: Germans, Univers city,

32: Apolyton city, CivFr,

34: RB city

35: 11000: Germans, CFC city, Univers

36: RB

37: 1000: CivPlayers city

38: 35000: RB, Apolyton, Germans, Univers

39: 1000: RB, Univers city

40: WPC, WPC city, Spanish city

41: 5000: CivPlayers

42: Spanish, German 2-whip,

43: Apolyton, CivFr city

44: CFC, Apolyton city, German city

45: Spanish, Germans, German 2-whip, CivPlayers

46: 47000: Apolyton, Univers

47: 20000: RB city, WPC, Germans

48: 162000: WPC, 2*Spanish, Apolyton, CivPlayers city, Univers
[('5->6', 60), ('4->5', 42), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5)]

49: 23000: CivFr, CivFr 1-whip, CivPlayers

50: Germans, CivFr

51: 20000: RB, Germans, CFC, CFC city

52: -61000: Spanish 2-whip, Apolyton, Germans city, Univers city

53: 114000: Apolyton*, 2*Germans, CivFr

54: 31000: WPC, Spanish city, German 1-whip (late), Univers

55: 47000: RB*2, Spanish 1-whip. German 1-whip (late), 3*CivFr, CivFr 1-whip, CivPlayers

47000 + 42000 / 47000 + 15000 / 47000 + 5000

CivFr 3->4 (27000)

20000 + 42000 / 20000 + 15000 / 2000 + 5000

Three possible solutions here, depending on the German whip:

5->4 whip, rest are 4->5, 2->3, 1->2
3->2 whip, rest are 2->3, 2->3, 1->2
2->1 whip, rest are 2->3, 1->2, 1->2

Solution 2 falls because there are only one size 2 city among the candidates.

56: Apolyton, Apolyton city

Also incorporates German 3->2 whip late T55.

Our population ranking only fits with the German 2->1 whip on T54, so the 5->4 whip is removed from consideration.

57: 52000: Germans, CivFr, CFC, Univers

Either CivFr or Univers must pass us on population (>=90000), but not both. CivFr needs a 3->4 to pass us, in which case Univers has a 1->2. Univers needs a 3->4 or a 2->3, in which case CivFr has a 1->2.

3->4: CivFr, CFC, Univers
2->3: Germans, Univers
1->2: Germans, CivFr, CFC, Univers
1->2: Germans, CivFr, CFC, Univers

Possible distributions:

3->4: CivFr
2->3: Germans
1->2: CFC, Univers

3->4: CFC
2->3: Univers
1->2: CivFr, Germans

3->4: Univers
2->3: Germans
1->2: CivFr, CFC

58: 99000: 2*Spanish, Apolyton, Germans, CivFr, CivFr 1-whip, Univers

4->5: CivFr
3->4: Spanish
2->3: Apolyton
1->2: Spanish
1->2: Germans
1->2: Univers

This leaves only one alternative among the T57 options: the one where Univers gets the 3->4 growth.

59: 89000: Germans, German 2-whip (late), CivFr, CivPlayers city, CFC 2-whip (5->3), 2*Univers

4->5: Univers
3->4: Germans or CivFr
2->3: Univers
1->2: Germans or CivFr

60: RB, WPC, Spanish, Germans, CivFr, CivPlayers, CFC

Germans performed either a 5->3 whip or a 4->2 whip late T59, so it's either:

268000 population over 6
241000 population over 6

Both have multiple solutions, too, but several of those involve cities over size 7, or more than one city of size 7, and can be disregarded, leaving:

268: 6->7, 5->6, 4->5, 4->5, 3->4, 2->3

6->7: WPC
5->6: CivFr

241: 6->7, 5->6, 4->5, 3->4, 2->3, 2->3

6->7: WPC
5->6: CivFr
4->5: Spanish
3->4: CFC
2->3: Germans
2->3: CivPlayers

Also, Webringen is still size 5 on T60 (top cities screen), so the 4->2 whip with 241000 new population is confirmed.

New rival worst of 75000 requires at least +20000 for the Spanish and +27000 for CFC. That gives CFC a 3->4 growth, and the 4->5 for the Spanish, putting them at 75000 and 97000. That puts the 2->3 on the Germans and CivPlayers.

61: 122000: RB, WPC city, Apolyton, CivFr, CivPlayers, CFC 4->2-whip, Univers, Univers city

5->6: Univers or CivPlayers
4->5: Univers or CivPlayers
2->3: CivFr
1->2: Apolyton

62: 102000: 2*RB, Germans, German 3-whip, CivFr, CFC

Two possible fits for this:

6->7: CivFr
2->3: CFC
1->2: Germans

5->6: Germans
3->4: CivFr
2->3: CFC

Rival worst is now 48000, up with 15000, so CFC get the 2->3 growth. According to my notes, Webringen is now size 6, so CivFr gets the 3->4 growth.

63: 107000: WPC whip 7->5, 2*Spanish, Spanish whip 6->4, 2*CivFr, CivFr whip 4->2, CFC city

107000 over 4 cities has two solutions:

[('6->7', 82), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5), ('1->2', 5)]
[('5->6', 60), ('3->4', 27), ('2->3', 15), ('1->2', 5)]

With two unknown size 6 cities founded T0, that puts us in the second solution.

5->6: Spanish
3->4: CivFr
2->3: Spanish (only size 2 city)
1->2: CivFr

Then the Spanish did a 6->4-whip of their capital, and CivFr a 4->2 whip.


T64: 111000: Apolyton, Germans, CFC, Univers

4->5: Univers
3->4: Apolyton
3->4: CFC or Germans
2->3: CFC or Germans

new branching point created...


T65: 109000: RB, Spanish, Germans, 2*CivFr, 2*CivPlayers, CFC

109000 over 7 cities has two solutions, but the first requires 5 size 1 cities, and the teams have only 4 between them, so it is the second solution:

First current branch (T64 growth 3->4 for the Germans):

3->4: CFC
3->4: Germans, CivPlayers, CFC
2->3: Germans, CivFr
2->3: Germans, CivFr
2->3: Germans, CivFr
1->2: Spanish
1->2: Germans, CivPlayers, CFC

Spanish get a 1->2 since that will put them on 75000 (rival worst). There are three size 2 cities needed, and exactly three among the candidate civs, so all of them grows (1 for the Germans and 2 for CivFr). CFC gets a 3->4 to beat the 75000 rival worst.

That leaves the last 3->4 and 1->2 slots for CivPlayers.


Second current branch (T64 growth 3->4 for CFC):

3->4: Germans (needs to break 75000)
3->4: CivPlayers, CivPlayers, CFC
2->3: CivFr, CFC
2->3: CivFr, CFC
2->3: CivFr, CFC
1->2: Spanish
1->2: Germans, CivPlayers, CFC

The analysis is equivalent with the one above, but with the Germans and CFC switched around. This also means that the two T64 branches collapses into one.

32000 are left to assign.


T66: 57000: 3*RB, WPC city, Apolyton, CivFr, Univers

3->4: CivFr (no size 2 city)
2->3: Apolyton (rival best)
2->3: Univers

[kjn]

T67 - 1320BC

Cliff's Notes: WPC continues to build dogs, up to 4 now. The Spanish grows their capital to 5, Univers grows their newest city to 2, and the Germans, CivFr, and CFC grows cities to size 4 - two cities in the case of CFC. Apolyton 1-turned an ancient tech, pencilled in as Mysticism for now. Univers researched an ancient tech in 6t, and I'm pencilling in Polytheism. The big news of the turn was from CivPlayers, who teched Writing, built the Oracle, picking Code of Laws and founding Confucianism in their size 4 city.

Given the late sparse reports, I'm going for a big one this turn.

Demos late turn T66:

Note how one team really is turning on research here - top GNP is 87!

Demos at the start of T67:

Team	Score change	Land	Pop	Tech	Wonders
RB	6	6
WPC	0
Spanish	3		3: 9->10 pop
Apolyton	6			6: 1 ancient
Germans	2		2: 12->13 pop
CivFr	2		2: 17->18 pop
CivPlayers	34			18: 1 ancient + 1 classic	16
CFC	5		5: 11->13 pop
Univers	9		3: 18->19 pop	6: 1 ancient

The interesting thing about the GNP is the overall increase over the line, despite at least one team (CivPlayers) finishing the heavily-discounted Writing, and Apolyton and Univers finishing techs too.

Big news is of course that CivPlayers built the Oracle, finished Writing, and grabbed Code of Laws, founding Confucianism.

F7 screen:

With 137 total pop as per the F8 screen and 2% influence, that means Confucianism was founded in a size 4 city (CivPlayers don't have a size 3 city), probably their third one. I expect that influence to go up to 6% soon, when they use their missionary.

F8 screen:

Rival total population rose with 155000 over 6 pop has the following solution:

[('4->5', 42), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('3->4', 27), ('1->2', 5)]

Slot	Spanish	Germans	CivFr	CFC	Univers
1 * 4->5	Must reach more than 113000 (75)
4 * 3->4		Must reach more than 113000 (92)	Only size 3, 4, and 6 cities	Remaining cities
1 * 1->2					Rival top is 309000

WPC is the new rival worst with 113000 population, and they were also the only team without a score increase this turn.

This puts us onto two branches: one where CFC grabs two 3->4 growths and Univers gets an 1->2 growth, and one where Univers gets an 3->4 growth and CFC gets a 3->4 and an 1->2. However, the 3->4 growth for Univers puts them at 310000 population, which would be the new rival best, so they are confirmed to have the 1->2 slot.

We also have another barb pop, up to 3 now.

Going to power, WPC finished another dog, and are up to 85000 in power. Rival total power rose with 9000, of which 3000 came from pop, with 1000 each to the Spanish, CivFr, and CFC. One of these teams is also the rival worst, going from 34000 to 35000 in power.

By checking the increases in rival best in power, I peg WPC's military as 32000 in pop and tech, 4 dogs (24000), 1 barracks, 1 totem pole (4000), and the rest unknown, probably archers, some warriors, and maybe another building or two (25000). The big trouble here is that their units will be highly promoted from the start, thanks to AGG, barracks, and totem poles.

No changes in land.

The techs of CivPlayers were easy to handle, but what about Apolyton (1t ancient) and Univers (6t ancient)? For Apolyton I pencil in Mysticism (cheapest available), and Univers has enough GNP for most ancient techs. I pencil in Polytheism, guessing they're going for Monotheism and founding Judaism.

Wismar has 57H invested into a build. It can only be a worker (the city has a granary) or a settler, but why build a worker or a settler in a newly founded size 1 city that has just finished a granary-equivalent?

[kjn]

T67 addendum:

CFC performed two 4->2-pop whips before not ending their turn, with their score going 124->119->114. They have a total of 9 pop in their four cities now, of size 4, 2, 2, and 1.

This lowers their power with 2000, and probably makes them the new rival worst at 34000. Since they have 22000 in power from pop and tech, that pretty much means they have a very small military. I wouldn't be surprised if those are axe whips to help against barbs.

Note also how there are two teams with very high GNP right now, ie higher than us. Those are almost certainly Apolyton and CivPlayers. Apolyton probably has a library now in their capital, and I expect a message about a great scientist no later than T75 or so. CivPlayers has proven that they can tech fast, they probably have a large stash of money after delaying Writing, and get plenty of culture from two holy cities. However, CivFr is also a possibility.

[T-hawk]

CFC performed two 4->2-pop whips before not ending their turn

Just a thought... It's possible to do two whips at exactly the same time. Click one city title bar, and Ctrl-click another, and anything you click in the lower-right area such as the whip button will apply to both cities. I wonder how this shows up on Civstats? I doubt anyone has done this, but we could keep it in mind to confuse everybody else if we are ever doing two whips on the same turn.

[novice]

CFC performed two 4->2-pop whips before not ending their turn

Just a thought... It's possible to do two whips at exactly the same time. Click one city title bar, and Ctrl-click another, and anything you click in the lower-right area such as the whip button will apply to both cities. I wonder how this shows up on Civstats? I doubt anyone has done this, but we could keep it in mind to confuse everybody else if we are ever doing two whips on the same turn.

Counterespionage taken to a whole new level.

[kjn]

Just a thought... It's possible to do two whips at exactly the same time. Click one city title bar, and Ctrl-click another, and anything you click in the lower-right area such as the whip button will apply to both cities. I wonder how this shows up on Civstats? I doubt anyone has done this, but we could keep it in mind to confuse everybody else if we are ever doing two whips on the same turn.

Interesting. Maybe I should start that counter-C&D thread.

One other factor we can use there is the land points timings. We got 6 land points this turn (looks like a tech), and we'll receive 9 on T71, 5 on T73, and 6 on T81. But it's probably too big a hassle to include those in a micro plan.

BTW, T-hawk, do you know the formulas that are used to calculate the EP values required for graph visibility, research visibility, et c? Or point me at the SDK file that contains the code?

[T-hawk]

Graph visibility requires 30 + 0.30 * opponent's EP against you.
Research visibility requires 75 + 0.75 * opponent's EP against you.
City visibility requires 125 + 1.25 * opponent's EP against you * all espionage multipliers for that enemy city (distance, religion, trade route, etc.)
City investigation requires 200 + 2 * opponent's EP * espionage multipliers for that city.

[kjn]

Thanks! Pity it isn't possible to draw any conclusions about the opponents using those values.

[novice]

Thanks! Pity it isn't possible to draw any conclusions about the opponents using those values.

But you can of course deduce hammers from the sabotage mission, and you can deduce treasury from pop or pop from treasury using the cost of the steal treasury mission.