WW 45: I'm an Illegal Alien

[AdrienIer]

Seriously why would Gazglum put himself with us two today ? He knew that the two people who had voted for him the day before would likely do it again. Why not put Psilly in there, have him lynched, and then hope for me to side with him on the last day ? It makes no sense.

So Scum-Gazglum would not put himself up but scum Rowain surely does it? Not only once but twice? In your mind I would happily risk a fight with Lewwyn (which would make me look very shady) and set myself up to be lynched on D4 with both you and Gazglum? Care to explain the logic behind that?

I already explained why you could have nominated yourself D2. Today it's even more obvious : hope that Psilly votes with you on Gazglum like yesterday and easily lynch Psilly tomorrow. Which is, it seems, what is going to happen.

[Psillycyber]

The last thing to do, it seems, is analyze whether it would have made sense for any of the remaining players to not nominate me today. Let's proceed under the assumption that, as it appeared last night (and probably still appears), it will not be a problem getting me lynched on Day 5 if the game is still going on, regardless of who else is left (Gaz + Adrien, Gaz + Rowain, Adrien + Rowain). I think that's a fair assumption.

So, the only real question for scum last night was: what are my chances of surviving today?

Adrien as scum:
Very good chances. He hasn't faced any real pressure in a while. However, Adrien's Day 1 vote that put Dp101 in extreme jeopardy, plus overall lack of scum tells otherwise this game, pre-dispose me to not dwelling on this possibility too much.

Rowain as scum:
A tricky proposition. Yes, I seemed to be fixated on Gaz, and Rowain could vote Gaz early and hope that I come in early to lock in the tiebreaking vote. However, how could Rowain have been sure that I'd show up on time, even if I did continue to fixate on Gaz? At the time I felt (and probably appeared to feel) quite resigned about the game. I might have gone a while before popping in or voting, and Gaz + Adrien might have beat me to it. (By the way, now that I am getting more confident that we have the right votes on the right guy, I'm feeling a renewed sense of optimism!)

Also, it requires an assumption that I hold grudges and don't change my targets. I change my targets all the time! In fact, in this very game I've targeted every single other player at some point. In previous games that was my downfall as well. If I recall, in WWW42 I went from being on Winston, to the AdrienIer/Novice duo, to second-guessing myself and hopping on Lewwyn on Day 3, still with suspicions of Q too. I'd say I'm known for changing my mind, perhaps too much. If I were scum Rowain, I would not have put it past Gaz to change my mind today. I wouldn't want to gamble like that.

I guess Rowain could have counted on the possibility of turning Adrien against Gaz, but that's a pretty uncertain Plan B. If I were Rowain as scum, what I would have done instead is to lynch me today and face the 2 vs. 1 on Day 5, counting on swinging Adrien against Gaz then. Why would it be easier to rally Adrien against Gaz then? Because Gaz was the main one gunning for me at first, and once I flipped town it would make Gaz look very guilty.

Gazglum as scum:
A tricky proposition. On the one hand, I did seem fixated on Gaz. However, because of my tendency to change my mind, I would not count that as in the bag. Was it certain that Rowain would go for Gaz and not Adrien? More likely, yes, but not certain. All I know is that, as Gaz, I would not have wanted to lynch me today, have me flip town, and then go into a 2 vs. 1 looking scummy vs. Adrien and Rowain. I don't believe Adrien would have been so comparatively charitable to Gaz vs. Rowain in that situation, and Gaz knew it.

Overall, I think the trickiness of staying alive as scum for Rowain and Gaz was about equal today. However, compared to the trickiness that each would have faced on Day 5, I think overall it would have made more sense for Gaz not to nominate me today than Rowain. It was more imperative for Gaz that I remain alive for Day 5 than Rowain. Scum-Rowain could have survived a Day 5 2 vs. 1 between him, Gaz, and Adrien. Scum-Gaz, no.

That, plus the Day 3 votes especially, really seals the deal for me.

[AdrienIer]

Turning me against Gaz was a dubious proposition from the start.

It appears that right now my vote isn't going to change anything. So I'll keep on voting for the person that is, slightly, more likely to be scum in my PoV. And tomorrow (assuming I'm right about Gazglum) I'll vote for you, and despite your claims today I'm sure you won't roll over.

[Psillycyber]

One last question I found myself pondering: if Gaz is scum and feared at least the possibility of me and Rowain teaming up on him, why not post his Rowain vote right out of the gate in order to try to win a possible 2-2 tiebreak? However, Gaz knew that he needed to get Adrien on-board for lynching Rowain rather than Gaz, and Gaz voting for Rowain right out of the gate with an unnatural sense of urgency might have alerted Adrien that something odd was going on. So, Gaz had to let the discussion explore the possibilities a bit and make it seem more natural. And thankfully, in that time, Rowain and I got our Gaz votes out and beat Gaz to the punch!

[AdrienIer]

Rowain today you've been very favorable to lynching Gazglum

[AdrienIer]

Stupid miscklick mid-message... End of message :

Do you now think that Psilly is unlikely to be scum ? Or do you think Gazglumvis inherently scummy ? If Psilly had been nominated who would you be voting for ?

[AdrienIer]

This situation is making me nervous for the likely D5

[AdrienIer]

I feel like we're about to lose a very winnable situation

[Gazglum]

One last question I found myself pondering:  if Gaz is scum and feared at least the possibility of me and Rowain teaming up on him, why not post his Rowain vote right out of the gate in order to try to win a possible 2-2 tiebreak?  However, Gaz knew that he needed to get Adrien on-board for lynching Rowain rather than Gaz, and Gaz voting for Rowain right out of the gate with an unnatural sense of urgency might have alerted Adrien that something odd was going on.  So, Gaz had to let the discussion explore the possibilities a bit and make it seem more natural.  And thankfully, in that time, Rowain and I got our Gaz votes out and beat Gaz to the punch!

Yes Psilly, think about that.

Adrien is town. If that is not obvious to everyone by now, I don't know what is. I opened the day by saying he should have the decision, and then proved it by waiting until his vote. Once he selected Rowain, I joined him.

Rowain also, perhaps, thinks Adrien is town (though he won't say so, because he won't say anybody is anything), but is not interested in communicating with him. I am specifically talkign to you, to Adrien, and to Rowain. Rowain is only posting to rebut people who attack him. He is not reaching out, he is slapping back. Likewise, you are not talking to Adrien at all, and now it is too late.

There is no way that ScumGlum waits 8 hours for Psilly to wake up before getting his vote in. You don't risk losing the entire game for a smidgeon more town-points. Scum do not do over-complex moves to try and gain credibility. You want to know how scum play? They post with a minimum of exposure, and they try not to vote their buddies. Scum tried to save DP on Day 3, even while he twisted in the wind. From my POV it is so obvious that I really don't know what to say. 

Again, Adrien is town and is telling you the same thing. He can read the game, and knows that this is a bad lynch. You are either scum, or you are tunnelled and not thinking straight, and either way you are going to lose next day.

I have had a very fine Saturday night, and am looking forward to a sleep in. Adrien, good luck tomorrow and I am sorry I cannot help you more. I am no longer sure what you should do. I am actually leaning towards Rowain being the scum now, but I know that is more emotion than logic playing its part. Psilly has definitely played a scummier game than Rowain, but I have been very unimpressed with Rowain's posts against me today, while Psilly I can now believe is just incredibly misguided. So I'm abotu 50/50 and you're going to have to Use the Force to decide between them tomorrow. I will be cheering you from the sidelines, and if you happen to be the scum, I will cheer you afterwards for playing such a great game.

Good luck Town.

[Qgqqqqq]

Day 4 Vote Count 12:

Gazglum (2): Rowain, Psillycyber
Rowain (2): Gazglum, AdrienIer
AdrienIer:

Not Voting:

What this guy said.

4 hours remaining.